Les dossiers du CERI

Following the schedule of world events (upcoming elections, conflicts, disasters, strategic issues, treaties signatures…), the Dossiers offer to an informed and eager audience a scientific view on international news, which are often complicated to interpret. Each issue revolves around a theme edited by a researcher from the CERI and with written contributions from other researchers and doctoral candidates. The Dossiers are published electronic files accessible by everyone.

Publishing manager: Corinne Deloy

ISSN : 2268-0632


















  • Illustration du dossierThe fiscal cliff and beyond:
    President Obama’s second term
    edited by Denis Lacorne

    Tocqueville situates the point of departure of the American democracy in New England, with the arrival of the Pilgrims. Because the first settlers were “at once ardent sectarians and impassioned innovators”, they “marvelously managed to combine” two distinct elements: “the spirit of religion and the spirit of liberty”. This providential narrative, invented by New England historians and developed in a more elaborate form by major 19th century historians such as George Bancroft, remains valid for contemporary American conservatives who, from Reagan to the Bushes – father and son – continuously refer to the biblical Jerusalem, the “City upon a hill” so much celebrated by the Puritans, starting with their most famous representative, the Governor of the Massachusetts Bay colony, John Winthrop.

    Caption photo : Barack Hussein Obama takes the Oath of Office to « preserve, protect and defend » the Constitution of the United States. He lays his right hand on two closed Bibles: the one used by Abraham Lincoln during his inauguration in 1861; the other owned by Martin Luther King.

  • Amandine Barb

  • Audrey Célestine

  • Alix Meyer













  • CyberpolitiqueToward an International Cyberpolicy
    edited by Christian Lequesne

    Sociology and political science could less and less escape the issue of new technologies. Cyber technologies in particular are now at the heart of research in social sciences, because of their strong link with mobilisation as well as security. If it would be completely misleading to say that the revolutions in Tunisia and Egypt came from the new solidarity on internet, it is clear that social networks have helped the opponents to fight dictatorial regimes. Cyber technologies are also leading to revisit the notions of threat and warfare. They constitute new security challenges both for the States and for private actors in the world. These states and firms have to think about cyber technologies not only in a proactive way but also in a reactive way to escape attacks from cyber actors which remain diffuse by nature. All these new dimensions constitute the topic of this new Dossier du CERI with the clear choice to make explicit some new implications both for national politics and for the international relations.

  • Yves Gonzales-Quijano

  • Florian Toepfl

  • Heli Tiirmaa-Klaar


  • G20G20: what, who and how?
    sous la direction de Karoline Postel-Vinay

    Does the burgeoning governance by clubs – such as the G7/G8, or the 3G (the Global Governance Group launched by Singapore), or again the G77 and G24 (group of developing countries) - signal a deep transformation of the organization of international life? The G20, which France has just started to chair, will likely be a major observation post from which to assess these changes in the global order.The diplomatic rise of the G20 has been accompanied by considerations that were primarily functional, related to the regulation of the financial system. However these considerations can hardly conceal the political issues that are also at stake, as illustrated by the production of new diplomatic codes, the redefinition of the global balance of power, and the formation of new alliances. This edition of “Dossiers du CERI” proposes to take a fresh look at the G20 by focusing on the political dimensions of its economy, and by considering global power from the viewpoint of those countries where this power is now taking shapeRead more...

  • Frédéric Louault

  • Mathieu Duchâtel




  • G20New Labour’s social policies 1997-2010: a mixed assessment
    edited by Anne Daguerre

    Just after the Parliamentary elections of May 6, 2010, how can one review the New Labour government after thirteen years in power (1997-2010)? The voters’ verdict is simple: it could have done better. On health issues, disparities still remain, despite a general improvement in medical care, thanks to massive investments in the National Health Service (NHS). On the fight against exclusion, child poverty went down — 550.000 less poor children between 1999 and 2009 — but 4 million children still live below poverty line. On Work Policies, unemployment declined spectacularly between 1997 and 2003 but the Labour Party did not succeed in massively reducing the economic inactivity: in 2010 there are 2.63 million Invalidity Pension holders as against 2.7 million in 1997. What can be expected from David Cameron and Nick Clegg Conservative-Liberal coalition government? Certainly not a conservative revolution but intensified plans for the revival of employment and clear cuts in public utility services. Read More...

  • Michael Traynor

  • John Macnicol

  • John Macnicol









  • Regulating Lobbying in the European Union
    edited by Cornelia Woll

    Democratic governance and accountability have become priorities for the European Union in the context of persistant eurosceptisme and the constitutional crisis in 2005. The explicit goal of the Commission headed by José Manuel Barroso is to bring EU politics closer to its citizens and to fight its negative image as a bureaucratic and elitist political system. Transparency, accountability and communication are therefore crucial elements upon which rests the legitimacy of the supranational institutions. At the initiative of Siim Kallas, commissioner in charge of administration, audit and anti-fraud, a working group consisting of Margot Wallström, Siim Kallas, Danuta Hübner and Mariann Fischer Boel has elaborated a European Transparency Initiative in 2005 that aims at fixing ethic guidelines for European policy-making. On May 3rd 2006, the European Commission published a “Green Paper on a European Transparency Initiative” to initiate a public debate.

    The proposal focuses on three interrelated issues in the prevention of fraud and corruption: (1) the availability of information on those who benefit from European funding, (2) ethical norms applying to public officials in Brussels and (3) the regulation of lobbying activities. The European Transparency Initiative is thus a first comprehensive framework that attempts to regulate the contacts between public and private actors. In the following, this dossier traces the origins of the initiative and evaluates its potential effectiveness...

  • Sabine Saurugger

  • Richard Balme, Didier Chabanet

  • Irina Michalowitz




  • Five years of "Koizumi-ism" : assessment and prospect
    edited by Jean-Marie Bouissou

    On September, 21, the Japanese Liberal-Democratic Party will elect its new president, who will then succeed Junichiro Koizumi as Prime Minister. Shinzo Abe (51), the chosen heir of Koizumi, looks like the sure winner.

    Since 2001, Koizumi has remodelled Japanese politics. He successfully enforced his leadership upon a restive governing party, rejuvenated its electoral basis and pushed Japan into the era of political show. He had to accept a lot of compromises to advance his reformist programme, but nevertheless presided over the end (?) of Japanese economic crisis. Riding the neo-nationalist wave, he worked hard to enhance the status of Japan on the international scene – at the price of rising tensions with China and Korea. Mending fences with the neighbouring powers will be a priority for Koizumi’s heir – who also inherits a mammoth public debt, a population who begun to shrink in 2005, a society upset by growing inequalities, but also a nation that has now regained confidence after fifteen years of crisis.

  • Régine Serra

  • Guibourg Delamotte

  • OCDE


  • The Rout of Opposition Parties in Russia
    edited by Gilles Favarel-Garrigues

    Two years after the last legislative elections, the power party” United Russia, dedicated to backing President Vladimir Putin, commands the political scene. Dominating federal institutions, it has gained a strong foothold in the regions and its leaders boast of its constantly rising membership. United Russia moreover intends to define the entire political offer by claiming to be a centrist group, or a pillar of the center-right, criticizing its adversaries of extremism, no matter what their label. The opposition parties appear in no position to score any significant victories in the next federal elections, scheduled for 2007 and 2008. The forces considered as democrats and“liberals” are having trouble overcoming their defeat in the 2003 legislatives, which deprived them of parliamentary representation at the national level. The Russian Federation Communist Party, which since the early 1990s had been the main opposition force, still has an electorate, but holds only a few remaining positions of power. The nationalist party Rodina (Fatherland), whose score belied all predictions in the last legislative elections, is rent with internal dissensions. The monopolization of political power has had a devastating effect on all of these parties. It has prompted many opponents to join the ranks of United Russia while encouraging the emergence of new rival currents. Such a context further reinforces Russian citizens’ desertion of political parties, as attests the rise, however timid, of social movements detached from existing party structures.

  • Françoise Daucé

  • Marlène Laruelle

  • Henri Duquenne

  • Karine Clément


  • Kosovo at a crossroads
    edited by Catherine Perron

    “Time has come to move to the next phase of the political process”. Does this seemingly harmless statement made by Kofi Annan mark the first step towards international recognition of Kosovo’s independence, so passionately desired by the province’s Albanian majority ?
    After a nearly seven-year-long peacekeeping operation conducted under the aegis of the United Nations, in accordance with Security Council resolution 1244, both representatives of the international community and experts came to the conclusion that it was essential to tackle the question of the status of Kosovo. The Contact group responsible for the province has insinuated that independence could indeed be the outcome.
    The following texts highlight the issues at stake during the negotiations that began on February 21 in Vienna and examine the positions and strategies of the different actors: the international community and its representatives, the Serbs and the Albanians.

  • Muhamedin Kullashi

  • Lulzim Peci, Ilir Dugolli, Leon Malazogu



  • The Challenge of Turkey : Islam, democracy and identities
    edited by Semih Vaner

    Turkey presents a challenge first with respect to changes in its domestic politics. The question, inadequately posed in the West, as to the compatibility of Islam and democracy, finds a partial answer therein. The Justice and Development Party (AKP), which has a definite religious component that cannot however be reduced to a brand of moderate Islamism, was brought to power through the polls in November 2002. Since then, it has been tackling the country’s social and economic problems while continuing to pursue the democratic reforms initiated by its predecessor. Its success depends above all on its performance in these areas in a political landscape marked by the weakness of opposition parties and the relatively diminished role of the army.

    Turkey also presents a challenge for the European Union. Associated with the EEC since 1963, it applied for membership in 1987, before the fall of the Berlin Wall, which led to a host of new applicants. Turkey’s application no doubt raises questions about the incorporation of a large state and the ability of the European club to function with thirty members, but more deeply it concerns border and identity issues in the European Union, and not in Europe, for this country, heir to the Ottoman Empire, has part of its territory on the old continent, and it has historically participated in the construction of Europe.

  • Semih Vaner

  • Deniz Akagül

  • Levent Ünsaldi

  • Sylvie Gangloff



  • The 2004 Elections in India
    edited by Christophe Jaffrelot

    The elections in India last spring will remain in history for a number of reasons. First they ousted the Hindu nationalist party, the BJP, which had grown in strength continually over the past 20 years and all polls had given as victor. These elections also marked the Congress Party’s return to power after an interruption unprecedented since India’s independence in 1947; indeed from 1999 to 2004 the country was governed by its first complete 5-year-term non-Congress legislature.
    But have the 14th general elections closed a long hiatus or on the contrary did they ring in a new era? To better grasp the meaning and impact of this election, this special web section brings together analyses and data that can be difficult to obtain in France, particularly as regards the states of the Indian Union.
    This special section could not have been compiled without the help of our friends from India, some of them visitors – such as Zoya Hasan whose talk given at the CERI last June is published here – or institutional partners, such as the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies in New Delhi, which devised and conducted an excellent exit poll, and The Hindu, the national daily in which this poll results were published on the May 20, 2004. Its Paris correspondent, Vaiju Naravane, is a familiar face at the CERI and its editor-in-chief, N. Ram, delivered a lecture here in December 2003. We would like to take this opportunity to express our warmest thanks to all of them!

  • Zoya Hasan

  • Yogendra Yadav

  • Alistair Mcmillan

  • K.C. Suri

  • Sanjay Kumar, Alistair Mcmillan

  • Suhas Palshikar, Sanjay Kumar

  • Suhas Palshikar with CSDS Team

  • Abhay Datar

  • Haryana CSDS Team with Ashutosh Kumar



  • Political Change and Violence in Indonesia
    edited by Romain Bertrand 

    Since the dismissal of President Suharto in May 1998, Indonesia went through a terrible historical path. This country – the largest muslim country in the world with almost 180 millions practioners of islam – experienced at the same time a long-awaited come back to multi-party democracy and ever-numerous outbursts of popular and state-backed violence. “Ethnic conflict” in Southern Kalimantan, “inter-religious riots” in the Moluccas, massacre of civilians in East Timor, a dirty war against separatist movements in Aceh, lynchings of petty criminals and suspected sorcerers in East and Central Java : such is Indonesia’s face of violence. In the past five years, Indonesia also witnessed the appearance and rise of neo-fundamentalist and islamist groups (Jihad Militia, Front of the Defenders of Islam, Hizb ut-Tahrir) that often made use of armed violence in order to turn the country into a vice-less, “ideal society”. A terrorist network, called the Jemaah Islamiyah, was involved twice in spectacular bomb-attacks, in Bali in October 2002 and against the Marriott Hotel in Jakarta in August 2003. But during the same period, it experienced free’n fair nationwide elections and the birth of a parliamentarian public space, and a “new deal” was struck between civilian authorities and military power that led to the dismantling of most ancien régime repressive structures. To sum it up, violence and democracy went hand in hand. It is this paradoxical process that the contributions gathered in this special issue of the CERI website intend to decipher.

  • Rémy Madinier

  • Andrée Feillard


  • Russia. The Illusory Stabilization of Putin’s Regime
    edited by Marie Mendras

     Russia seemed to be slumbering in slow-motion politics thanks to a slight improvement in the economy and the lack of public issues and debate. Even the election campaign wasn’t getting off the ground. It was generally agreed that the legislative elections to be held on December 7 did not interest public opinion and that the presidential election next March was devoid of suspense : Putin was a shoo-in no matter what happened. No serious rival would enter the race ; the media and election boards are under tight control.
    So the storm hit under apparently calm skies. On October 25, Mikhail Khodorkovsky, head of the Yukos oil giant, was arrested using strongarm tactics in Siberia. Nearly half of the company’s shares were seized. On October 30 came confirmation that Alexander Voloshin, the President’s powerful chief of staff, had resigned.
    Why such a test of strength at election time ? Why destabilize the already delicate balance between the Kremlin and oligarchs who control a large percentage of the country’s wealth and are a major source of revenue for the state ?
    Vladimir Putin, as President, stands nothing to gain from this crisis, which turns out to be more political than it is legal or financial. The question that all observers of Russia are asking is, then, whose interests are served by provoking such a stand-off ? What individuals, what groups, what institutions ? The former KGB ? Other state officials who will get rich by stripping the Yukos shareholders of their assets? Financiers and businessmen? Multinationals? Did Putin merely want to break a businessman with political ambitions ? All these interpretations intersect to form a complex web of individual and corporate interests in which political power appears as much the tool of powerful networks as it does a figure of authority.
    Russia is currently undergoing its worse political crisis since Boris Yeltsin stepped down. Even the war in Chechnya has not caused such turmoil. And it seems difficult for the Kremlin to pull the curtain down on the Yukos affair for it has countless ramifications in Russia as well as abroad. The central Russian institutions cannot settle this confrontation because they are not the ones handling the crisis. Neither the legislative body nor the judiciary is independent enough to act as safeguard. Public opinion is not in a position to sort the question out. It has become apathetic with regard to national politics. The lack of following for political parties and movements and the lack of reaction on their part are all the more striking in this election campaign period.
    The present dossier offers a few insights into the political and social context prevailing in Russia today.

  • Nikolaï Petrov

  • Alexander Bim et Kim Iskyan



  • Chinese politics and the 16th Congress
    edited by Stéphanie Balme 

    Since the end of Mao era, Chinese Communist Party Congress takes place regularly, every five year during autumn. This “focus” presents an analysis of the political preparation of the coming 16th Congress scheduled, very late this time, for November 8 2002. The meeting is firstly expected to decide of Jiang Zemin’s political future (currently head of the State, the Army, the Party and local powerful networks known as the “Big Shanghai faction”). The Congress is secondly supposed to bring to power a new fourth generation of communist leaders whom Hu Jintao should become the core leader if Deng Xiaoping’s succession strategy decided during the 1990’s, is respected.
    Media reports and academic papers presented in this “NEWS STAND” (cf. texts from 1 to 10 both in French, English and Chinese) show the basic contradictions of current Chinese political regime. If information, including internal Chinese political documents, are more and more available, the core of the system and its framework (in terms of elite recruitment and decision-making process on the subject of reforms), remain opaque.

  • Xu Yufang

  • Bill Fletcher

  • Thomas Crampton


  • Re-opening of the hostilities between India and Pakistan 
    edited by Christophe Jaffrelot

    In June, the degree of tension between India and Pakistan let us fear an opening of hostilities before falling back very quickly. The main reason of the détente seemed to be the U.S diplomatic pressure. However, did the fundamental reasons of the recent rise to extremes have disappeared? We could wonder, in particular if the Pakistani feedayins' incursions ceased as far as preventing India from risks of attacks – a result of the Indian troops deployment at the frontier of Pakistan the later months. Even in such a case, the continuing dispute over Kashmir risks to keep alive tensions between India and Pakistan for a long time.

  • Jasmine Zérinini-Brotel

  • Sumit Ganguly



  • La politique agricole commune : une coordination souple des politiques nationales
    edited by Hélène Delorme

    Principale politique économique commune de l'Union européenne (U.E.), qui consomme presque la moitié du budget européen, la politique agricole commune (PAC) est aussi la principale politique identitaire de l'U.E. La gestion de son système de prix et de financement communs est en effet le plus puissant facteur qui contraint les pays membres à régler les problèmes généraux (institutions, financement, monnaie, relations commerciales extérieures) que pose la construction de l'Europe.

    La PAC ne déroge pas pour autant au modèle intergouvernemental qui a inspiré jusqu'ici l'U.E. Certes la Commission joue un rôle déterminant pour la fixation de l'agenda communautaire car elle détient seule le droit de présenter les textes sur la base desquels la PAC est décidée, et elle dispose de l'autonomie nécessaire face aux gouvernements et face aux électorats devant lesquels, n'étant pas élue, elle n'est pas directement responsable. Mais la décision relève du Conseil des Ministres où les représentants des gouvernements décident à l'unanimité, le vote à la majorité qualifiée étant compris comme un aiguillon pour parvenir au compromis et non comme un moyen de contraindre les gouvernements minoritaires. 

    La PAC assure dans ces conditions une coordination souple des politiques nationales pour réguler leur concurrence sur le marché européen et leur ouverture sur les échanges internationaux. Au gré des élargissements, qui ont augmenté l'hétérogénéité structurelle des agricultures associées dans la PAC, ses instruments se sont multipliés pour s'adapter pour s'adapter aux pratiques et aux objectifs des politiques nationales.

    Le dossier commence par rappeler la genèse de la PAC et par évaluer ses perspectives. Il montre ensuite que la PAC s'accommode de l'absence d'une définition unique des agriculteurs et laisse aux politiques nationales la latitude de définir les bénéficiaires des transferts du budget communautaire. Il se poursuit par une analyse de la gouvernance à niveaux multiples sur laquelle repose la PAC qui fait intervenir pour sa formulation et sa gestion l'U.E., les Etats et les régions. Il se termine par une présentation des négociations internationales en cours sur les questions environnementales où l'U.E. peut jouer un rôle éminent du fait de sa structure et de ses pratiques multilatérales.

  • Hélène Delorme

  • Catherine Laurent

  • Daniel Perraud