Les Etudes du CERI
Les Etudes du CERI is a tool for decision-making and offers to scrutinize and study the transformations of our contemporary world, in more than 200 titles addressing a variety of topics and analyzing political, social and economic questions related to a specific country/region or a global contemporary challenge. Every issue follows, and is the result of, a fieldwork undertaken by its author. In this respect, this publication illustrates CERI’s approach to area studies, based on a direct, empirical experience and methodology.
Previous and current issues are all available online, free of charge. As all publications of this website, Les Etudes du CERI is protected by copyright through the French law.
Series editor: Alain Dieckhoff, directeur du CERI
Editor of the journal: Judith Burko, email@example.com, phone +33158717004
During the Cold War the US-Pakistan relationship was one in which the US considered Pakistan as a necessary part of its effort to contain communism in Asia while Pakistan considered its relationship with the US as strengthening its position vis a vis India. The high point in this relationship was during the Soviet-Afghan war. The US tried to renew this relationship after 9/11, although when Obama replaced GW Bush he stated his intention to move US-Pakistani relations off the security agenda which the Pentagone and the Pakistani army considered a priority. However, Obama rain into resistance from the Pakistani army and from the national security establishment in Washington- as can be seen from the security-oriented distribution of US aid. But not even in the area of security have the two nations been able truly to collaborate. To begin with, the strengthening of US-India relations angered Pakistan. Then Islamabad protected the Taliban in its fight with NATO. Finally, Obama violated Pakistani sovereignty (the Drone strikes in the tribal belt and the Ben Laden raid). These conflicting interest, however, do not necessary means the end of the relationship.
The political determination of the Mediterranean border of the European Union seen from the perspective of the Southern European countries (Spain, Italy, Greece, Malta) illustrates the symbolic and political importance for these nations of maintaining control of the border. It has a significant impact on the types of controls that are enacted and the interplay between national and European decisions. Placing this question on the agenda brings to light a Mediterranean perspective regarding the exterior borders of the European Union that is largely determined by the conditions of integration of the different countries into the Schengen area. This new border regime is the result of complex political games and is seen as a security issue. The actual set of controls seems to be less planned and legal-rational than simply erratic and the result of tensions between internal tactics, nation state strategies and attempts at bringing within the ring of EU.
Evelyne Ritaine, La fabrique politique d’une frontière européenne en Méditerranée. Le « jeu du mistigri » entre les Etats et l’Union / Les Études du CERI, N°186, July 2012, [en ligne, www.sciencespo.fr/ceri/fr/papier/etude].
During the first decade of the 21st century the Gulf States undertook reforms of their social policies based on the generous redistribution of hydrocarbon profits. One of the elements of the redistribution was to guarantee of employment. Beginning in the 1990s rising unemployment indicated that the traditional employment policies were ineffective, generating social tensions as evidenced in the "Arab spring". The goal of the reforms is to move nationals into salaried jobs in the private sector, currently held largely by foreign workers. The change is strongly opposed by business executives and local entrepreneurs. Having become accustomed to inexpensive foreign workers they object to the increased costs entailed by the reforms. The royal families are thus obliged to negotiate between the interests of the private sector, often aligned with their own, and the dissatisfaction of the young, the group most impacted by unemployment and the key players in the protests that erupted in 2011 in Bahrain, Saudi-Arabia and Oman.
What kind of future worlds do experts of international security envision? This paper studies the role of experts in DC's think tanks, a relatively small world socially and culturally highly homogeneous. It underlines the characteristics of this epistemic community that influence the way its analysts make claims about the future for security. The DC's marketplace of the future lacks diversity. The paradigms analysts use when they study international politics are very similar. Moreover, the range of issues they focus on is also relatively narrow. The paper highlights three main features of the relation between those who make claims about the future of security and those to whom these claims are addressed (mainly policymakers). First, it shows that, for epistemic but also for political reasons, the future imagined in think tanks is relatively stable and linear. This future also contributes to the continuity of political decisions. Second, the paper shows that think tanks are also "victims of groupthink", especially when they make claims about the future. Third, it underlines a paradox: scenarios and predictions create surprises. Claims about the future have a strong tunneling effect. They reinforce preexisting beliefs, create focal points, and operate as blinders when, inevitably, the future breaks away from its linear path.
Latin America's national oil companies, created at various times during the twentieth century, have each evolved in a different way. The two main companies – Petroleos de Mexico (Pemex) and Petroleos de Venezuela (PDVSA) – provide excellent illustrations of the rich diversity of organizational and industrial development. Many factors – such as the importance of earth quakes – explain the diversity. Nevertheless, the role of governments during the period of nationalizations is key. It was then that the relationships between the owners of natural resources, public operators, regulators, the finance ministries, and international operators were defined. This process shaped the companies' institutional structures (path dependency) and set the parameters for future entrepreneurial dynamism. The path by which each of these enterprises developed continues to affect their culture as evidenced by the recent reforms which attempted to restructure Pemex and PDVSA.
Isabelle Rousseau, Can Latin American Oil Companies Free Themselves from the Legacy of Nationalization? / Les Études du CERI, N°183, January 2012, [en ligne, www.sciencespo.fr/ceri/fr/papier/etude].
Jean-Pierre Pagé, Tableau de bord des pays d'Europe centrale et orientale et d'Eurasie 2011 (Volume 2) / Les Études du CERI, N°182, December 2011, [en ligne, www.sciencespo.fr/ceri/fr/papier/etude].
Jean-Pierre Pagé, Tableau de bord des pays d'Europe centrale et orientale et d'Eurasie 2011 (Volume 1) / Les Études du CERI, N°181, December 2011, [en ligne, www.sciencespo.fr/ceri/fr/papier/etude].
Observatoire Politique de l'Amérique latine et des Caraïbes de Sciences Po, Amérique latine. Political Outlook 2011 / Les Études du CERI, N°179, December 2011, [en ligne, www.sciencespo.fr/ceri/fr/papier/etude].
In 2004 the government of Mauritania admitted that for the past ten years its national macroeconomic and financial data had been falsified. This admission revealed a small part of the fraudulent practices that took place during the Taya era which ended in 2005. But it also showed that the economic management of this "good student" had become ensnared in true "bureaucratic anarchy". Beginning in 2005, when the democratic transition should have enabled the public administration's house to be put in order, reforms were often motivated by a desire to improve the image of the regime and were thus less than effective. Then, following the elections of 2007, and in the midst of financial scandals, the government developed a technocratic approach which alienated the Mauritanian public who perceived a power vacuum. A new coup d'etat occurred during the summer of 2008. The "Rectification Movement" of general Abdel Aziz acquired legitimacy as a result of its fight against terrorism in Sahel. Employing populist rhetoric and adopting the moral high ground in the fight against rampant corruption, the Movement favored lax management of resources and tight, even authoritarian, control of public finances.
Boris Samuel, The Technocratic Trajectory and Political Instability of Mauritania, 2003-2011 / Les Études du CERI, N°178, October 2011, [en ligne, www.sciencespo.fr/ceri/fr/papier/etude].
Rémi Bourguignon, Solène Hazouard, Martine Le Boulaire
Rémi Bourguignon, Solène Hazouard, Martine Le Boulaire, Les entreprises françaises et allemandes en Chine : des pratiques de management contrastées dans un contexte en mutation / Les Études du CERI, N°176-177, September 2011, [en ligne, www.sciencespo.fr/ceri/fr/papier/etude].
The Maoist movement in India began to develop in the late 1960s, taking advantage of the political space provided when the Communist Party of India (Marxist) abandoned its revolutionary fight. In the early 1970s the Maoist, also called Naxalistes, were the victims of intense factionalism and severe repression which led the militants to retreat to the tribal zones of Andhra Pradesh and Bihar, their two pockets of resistance during the 1980s. This strategy explains not only the transformation of the Indian Maoist sociology (which was led originally by intellectuals but became increasingly plebian) but also its return to power in the late 1990s. That decade, notable for economic liberalization, witnessed the exploitation of mineral resources in the tribal regions to the detriment of the interests of the inhabitants. The growth in Maoism during the 2000s can be explained also by a reunification under the banner of the Communist Party of India (Maoist) which was created in 2004. The reaction of the government in New Delhi to this phenomenon which affects half the Indian states has been to impose repressive measures. In contrast the Maoists see themselves as the defenders of a State of rights and justice.
Since 2006 the checkpoints along the borders of the West Bank and the Gaza strip have been reorganized and equipped with a new technological platform. They are now managed by private security firms. The instigators of these reforms speak of the "civilianization" of the checkpoints and justify their program on economic, organizational and humanitarian grounds. This detailed study of the concrete means by which the management of the Israeli checkpoints has been outsourced and commodified enables one to establish links between the evolution of Israeli society in terms of the relationship between the State, the market and society and the actual changes in the operation of the occupation. It would appear that this is not a case of the State receding in the face of market forces in a zero sum game. Rather it is the redeployment in a neoliberal context of the State in which it has adopted the uniquely Israeli layering of the public and the private, the national and the international, the State and civil society.
Shira Havkin, La réforme des checkpoints israéliens : externalisation, marchandisation et redéploiement de l'Etat / Les Études du CERI, N°174, May 2011, [en ligne, www.sciencespo.fr/ceri/fr/papier/etude].
As a social institution, the madras must be analyzed in terms of their relationship to social, econmomic and political change and to the public educational system whose bureaucratic organization they have copied. In the case of Afghanistan they cannot be disassociated from the war and its consequences, such as emigration and the reconstitution of ethno-religious affiliations. Financed and run by the diaspora, they enable the Shiite minority, notably Hazara, to reestablish itself in the central State and to provide a counterweight to the Pachtoune domination. They also contribute to the education of girls and children from disfavored social classes. The dependeance of Shiite education in Afghanistan on the Iranian clergy has organizational, theological, financial and symbolique benefits. But it is accompanied by a reinvention of, and separation from, the Iranian model which should, in the minds of the religous authorities, lead to a national schism in Afghanistan of which Kaboul hopes to be the spiritual capital. The asymetric Irano-Afghan interaction illustrates the relevance of the notion of « religous dependence ».
SAKURAI Keiko, Les madrasas chiites afghanes à l’aune iranienne : anthropologie d’une dépendance religieuse / Les Études du CERI, N°173, January 2011, [en ligne, www.sciencespo.fr/ceri/fr/papier/etude].
Jean-Pierre Pagé, Tableau de bord des pays d'Europe centrale et orientale 2010 (volume 2) / Les Études du CERI, N°172, December 2010, [en ligne, www.sciencespo.fr/ceri/fr/papier/etude].
Jean-Pierre Pagé, Tableau de bord des pays d'Europe centrale et orientale 2010 (volume 1) / Les Études du CERI, N°171, December 2010, [en ligne, www.sciencespo.fr/ceri/fr/papier/etude].
Observatoire Politique de l'Amérique latine et des Caraïbes de Sciences Po, Amérique latine. Political Outlook 2010 / Les Études du CERI, N°169-170, December 2010, [en ligne, www.sciencespo.fr/ceri/fr/papier/etude].
Thirty years after the nationalisation of hydrocarbons Algeria’s oil wealth seems to have disappeared judging by its absence in the country’s indicators of well being. In Algeria oil led to happiness for a few and sadness for many. The absence of controls over oil revenue led to the industries downfall. Since 2002 Algeria is again seeing oil wealth. The increase in the price per barrel from 30 to 147 dollars between 2002 and 2008 provided the country with unexpected revenue permitting it to accumulate funds estimated, in 2009, at 150 billion dollars. Abdelaziz Bouteflika, returned to a devastated Algeria to restore civil order, unexpectedly benefited from this price increase. Thus, in addition to national reconciliation he was able to offer Algeria renewed economic growth. However, given that the wounds of the 1990s are not entirely healed and the illusions of oil wealth have evaporated this unexpected return of financial abundance raises concerns. To what ends will this manna be put ? Who will control it ? Will it provoke new violence and conflict ?
Christian Milelli, Françoise Hay
The arrival in Europe of Chinese and Indian firms is a recent phenomenon, yet it should be viewed as one which will last as it results from the strong economic growth of these two Asian giants. In this light it is useful to spell out the principal traits of these investors which remain largely unknown in Europe outside a narrow circle of experts and which have their own unique characteristics which are, on occasion, similar; this diversity can be explained by their unique national histories. The various modes of interaction can be explained by the manner in which these enterprises establish foreign subsidies. An examination of the impact these firms have on European economies and societies can help avoid unfounded paranoia and better address possible risks. The principal message of this paper is that it is necessary methodically and periodically to follow this phenomenon which is only in its infancy.
Christian Milelli, Françoise Hay, La présence chinoise et indienne en Europe : au-delà des clichés / Les Études du CERI, N°167, July 2010, [en ligne, www.sciencespo.fr/ceri/fr/papier/etude].
In Morocco describing an activity as having a « participative » character vests it with all the virtues of civil society and implies it is a panacea. The launch in 2005 of the National Initiative for Human Development (NIHD), a program calling for the mobilization of everyone in the fight against poverty, can be considered a symbol of this « participation phenomenon ». By analyzing its norms and styles of action on which they are based it is possible to discover the internal logic of the participatory phenomenon and to see how it shapes politics. The promotion of certain styles of action, those combining the virtues of civil society with the technical support of participative policies, transforms the criteria of legitimation. Also, the moral values ascribed to participation justify the violation of other social norms, both economic and political, which have nothing to do with participation. Such an approach, developed here on the basis of the INDH at El Hajeb, brings to light the complex ideology on which the subject of participation is based as well as its active and creative role in the political configurations which draw their legitimacy from the value placed on participation.
Irène Bono, Le « phénomène participatif » au Maroc à travers ses styles d’action et ses normes / Les Études du CERI, N°166, June 2010, [en ligne, www.sciencespo.fr/ceri/fr/papier/etude].
Thierry Chopin et Lukáš Macek
The ratification of the Lisbon Treaty was, in the words of Jose Manuel Barroso, “an obstacle marathon”. Its entry into force marks the end of the debate over the future of Europe begun in December 2000 at the Council of Europe in Nice. Based on an analysis of this sequence of events the authors offer a diagnosis of the crisis of legitimacy gripping the European Union. They consider that the increase in certain forms of Euroskepticism is a result of the crisis of legitimacy and propose that it be addressed by the politicization of the European political system. This politicization would permit citizens to influence the political orientation of the European Union both in terms of substance and legislative process. Several avenues are available to encourage s pour fig 1b.jpg uch politicization, relating both to institutional practices and to the conduct of political actors.
Thierry Chopin et Lukáš Macek, Après Lisbonne, le défi de la politisation de l’Union européenne / Les Études du CERI, N°165, May 2010, [en ligne, www.sciencespo.fr/ceri/fr/papier/etude].
The post-Soviet Russian army, having decided to maintain the draft, must address issues associated with the existence of ethnic and religious minorities; specifically the growing numbers of Muslims and the proselytizing by the Orthodox Church. The Russian Orthodox Church’s policy of blessing the troops is the source of growing discontent among the Muslim community. The two conflicts in Chechnya have further contributed to the difficulties faced by the army’s Muslim minority. However, protests by Muslim leaders have lost their legitimacy since 1999. The policies of reconciliation led by Vladimir Putin have born fruit. The Muslim religious authorities have become increasingly involved in the draft, army officers have been educated about the basic principles of Islam, and “stroibaty” have been dismantled. The management of the forces however remains a source of tension, most notably the official policy of using the reorganization of local and ethnic groups to eradicate the “dedovchtchina”. Given the growth of the Muslim population what can we expect from a move to a professional army? Will the armed forces mirror the diversity of the nation or will they be ethnically and religiously homogeneous?
Elisabeth Sieca-Kozlowski, Un exemple de la gestion des minorités ethniques et religieuses dans l’armée russe : le cas des musulmans / Les Études du CERI, N°164, April 2010, [en ligne, www.sciencespo.fr/ceri/fr/papier/etude].
The social policy of the US welfare state is based on a liberal model of social protection. The social contract is based on the idea that individuals of working age individuals should support themselves and their dependants thanks to their earned income. However, to have a job is no longer sufficient in protecting individuals against main social risks. President Obama has been elected on the promise that he will restore the American dream, whereby individual work is rewarded by upward social mobility. However, the Obama administration faces the challenge of rising social inequality and poverty, in an extremely difficult economic context. The Great Recession has laid bare the gaps of the safety net: a growing proportion of families must choose between paying for food or rent. To understand the inadequacies of the US social protection system, it is necessary to study the structure of public assistance programmes, as well as labour market trends and the impact of the recession on low-income households. This analysis will shed light on the main characteristics of the Obama administration’s response to the economic crisis.
Anne Daguerre, Gaps in the US Safety Net: A Challenge for the Obama Administration / Les Études du CERI, N°163, February 2010, [en ligne, www.sciencespo.fr/ceri/fr/papier/etude].
Jean-Pierre Pagé, Tableau de bord des pays d'Europe centrale et orientale 2009 (volume 2) / Les Études du CERI, N°162, December 2009, [en ligne, www.sciencespo.fr/ceri/fr/papier/etude].
Jean-Pierre Pagé, Tableau de bord des pays d'Europe centrale et orientale 2009 (volume 1) / Les Études du CERI, N°161, December 2009, [en ligne, www.sciencespo.fr/ceri/fr/papier/etude].
The latest WTO Round launched in Doha in 2001 has once again stalled. Even if an agreement were reached it is not certain it would be ratified by the US Congress. The latest delay is due in part to the changing economic context in which the negotiations are taking place, some of which changes are due to decisions made during the course of the negotiations. Governments and public opinion are increasingly in favor of bilateral negotiations in which it is possible to include new subjects rejected in the Doha multilateral negotiations. These include rules on labor and environmental standards, competition policy, investment, and government procurement. The assertiveness of emerging economies has upset the co-leadership positions of the US and the EU and argues for a new, as yet-to-be determined, negotiating process. The latest economic crisis has raised question about the objectives of the agriculture negotiations and has revealed the difficulties faced by an organization that thinks long-term of adapting to changes in the short term. This paper’s recommendations are aimed at improving the ability of the WTO to operate under current conditions and advocates the inclusion of new negotiating topics. If the principle of decision by consensus is not revised the rush to bilateralism is likely to continue, which is dangerous because of its discriminatory character.
Jean-Marc Siroën, L’OMC face à la crise des négociations multilatérales / Les Études du CERI, N°160, December 2009, [en ligne, www.sciencespo.fr/ceri/fr/papier/etude].
The Central European model of development has until recently rested on a low interest rates, significant increases in consumption, heavy dependence on capital inflows, open markets especially towards Western Europe, and for some specialization in cyclical industries (automobiles). The crisis has highlighted on the one hand the growing divergence between the countries of Central Europe and on the other their high level of interdependence which has necessitated cooperation in their relations with the EU. While Western Europe is unlikely to experience a repeat of the 1930s, it is possible that recovery will prove illusory as it did between the two world wars. Witness the case of the automobile sector which became a major contributor to GDP and source of in Central Europe but whose future prospects are uncertain. Regional policies of which new member states are the beneficiaries should, in theory, encourage innovation, pro-employment policies, and sustainable development as means to ensuring recovery
Gilles Lepesant, Géographies de la crise en Europe centrale / Les Études du CERI, N°159, December 2009, [en ligne, www.sciencespo.fr/ceri/fr/papier/etude].
Hostile, sometimes even xenophobic discourse towards migrants remains generally the norm in Russia. However, the Russian Federation’s migration policy appears relatively flexible, particularly in regards to the member countries of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), whose nationals benefit from simplified procedures when it comes to entering Russian territory and obtaining a work permit. Russian authorities, reticent after the Western Europe experience, intend therefore to promote labor immigration and limit family immigration. At the same time, in order to encourage the cohesion of the Russian nation as a whole, the Russian Federation intends to undertake an ambitious policy to promote cultural diversity, including both the many different constituent groups among Russians and the immigrant communities in Russia. This multiculturalism “à la russe” recalls the “folklorization” during the Soviet period involving the cultures and traditions of the Soviet Union’s different populations. In the absence of a real political directive a the federal level, local authorities have been more active on the matter, notably in Moscow.
Adeline Braux, Politique migratoire et gestion de la diversité culturelle en Russie : l’exemple de Moscou / Les Études du CERI, N°158, November 2009, [en ligne, www.sciencespo.fr/ceri/fr/papier/etude].
“Natural” risks and catastrophes appeared in the international arena in the early 1990s. A real « world » of “natural” catastrophes has emerged internationally and has become more and more institutionalized. This study raises questions such as: how has this space been built? How do actors legitimize its necessity? What does it tell us about the way the contemporary world manages fears globally? A diachronic approach of this double process of internationalization and institutionalization allows the author to situate the phenomenon in the historical and global context, and notably of a context of transformation of the notion of security. The sociological analysis of the main multilateral organizations that contribute to forming this space invites us to apprehend the various lines of tension that cross over, and to foresee its complexity. Despite the many attempts to make this space appear as a “community” of sense and practices, strong disparities characterize the actors’ approaches.
Burcu Gorak Giquel
Cross-border cooperation in the EU policy of regional development is crucial for three reasons: it reinforces partnerships between, on the one hand, central, regional and local agents, and on the other hand, public, private, and associative actors; it rests on the decentralized structure of states, assigning to each level of intervention a unique role in the development process. Finally, it supports local initiative. Cross-border cooperation becomes a vehicle for the “multi-level governance” that the EU intends to promote, by linking organization of regionalized action, cooperation between actors, and solid territorial establishment. For Turkey the task represents a challenge and an opportunity. A challenge, because regionalization directly affects the unitary structure of the state. An opportunity, because the EU does not impose any model of decentralization. On the contrary, the EU gives national actors the chance to create their own public structures in function of their historical path and the negotiation between the centre and the periphery. This is what this study ultimately attempts to show, stressing two aspects of Turkish transformations: decentralization is not a precondition for membership and that different forms of cooperation exist at the borders with Bulgaria and Syria, as a proof of the Europeanization of the Turkish public administrations.
Burcu Gorak Giquel, Les coopérations transfrontalières à l’épreuve de l’UE. Une comparaison Europe centrale-Turquie / Les Études du CERI, N°156, July 2009, [en ligne, www.sciencespo.fr/ceri/fr/papier/etude].
The post-interventionist development adopted by Indian governments from the mid-1980s onwards has enabled companies to further participate in the economic growth. Still, growth benefits are very unevenly distributed while social and environmental externalities weigh more and more on Indian society. In such a context, while public regulation tends to reduce social and environmental judicial constraints in order to encourage rapid growth of investments, civil society groups are intensifying their regulatory actions on private companies, and advocate for a balance of public policies in favor of a better protection of the social groups most affected by economic activity, and for a better protection of the environment. As a response, big companies are revising their strategies and practices of corporate social responsibility (CSR), to preserve their social legitimacy and the conciliatory attitude of the State. This study explores the recomposition of relationships and balances of power between economic actors, the State and the civil society, in a context of national modernization. It provides a detailed analysis of stakes and dynamics within public and civil society regulation, as well as companies’ self-regulations.
Damien Krichewsky, La régulation sociale et environnementale des entreprises en Inde / Les Études du CERI, N°155, June 2009, [en ligne, www.sciencespo.fr/ceri/fr/papier/etude].