The Atlantic Alliance: Diverging Interests, Converging Policies

The twin shocks of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine coupled with Donald Trump’s re-election to the U.S. presidency, have caused observers on both sides of the Atlantic to express fears concerning the health and durability of the NATO alliance. But in this talk, I argue that such fears are overwrought, and that a “new equilibrium” is being established among alliance members. In particular, I highlight three critical developments that are shaping the new equilibrium. First, Europe is well on its way to developing a robust defense manufacturing sector that serves U.S. interests. Second, as they engage in significant rearmament, European states will, according to a recent US-EU trade agreement, “substantially increase procurement of military and defense equipment from the United States.” Third, this increased defense effort will provide the United States with strategic and operational advantages outside of the Indo-Pacific theater while developing specialized capabilities useful to U.S. interests. Overall, increased European defense spending on the one hand, alongside divergent strategic priorities (Moscow for the EU, Beijing for the US) on the other, are generating opportunities for trans-Atlantic collaboration that move the allies beyond the imbalanced power relationships that once characterized NATO.  

Speaker : Prof. Ethan B. Kapstein (Princeton University)
Chairs: Hugo Meijer and Eugenio Sánchez (CERI-Sciences Po/CNRS)