EU referendum in the UK: a brilliant idea or a suicide mission ?

EVENEMENT ANNULE

 

Within the framework of “Les Rencontres européennes de Sciences Po”

Guest speaker  Olaf Henricson-Bell, career diplomat.

A EU-specialist, Olaf was posted at the UK Representation to the EU (2010-2012) and was Private secretary for David Lidington, Minister for Europe (2012-2014). In his last role, Olaf was closely involved in the discussions that led to the so-called “Bloomberg speech” delivered by Cameron on 23rd January 2013 in which the Prime minister promised a referendum on the UK’s membership to the EU, were the Conservative party to win the May 2015 general elections.

 

Moderation : Christian Lequesne, Professor and former Director of the CERI (Centre de Recherches Internationales) of Sciences Po.

 

 

UK’s relationship with the European Union has never been a bed of roses. In 2015 British political life is marked by a wave of Euroscepticism which is by no way specific to this country. Most European States are experiencing this trend. Under pressure from the Euro sceptics in his party, Prime Minister Cameron has promised to hold a referendum on the European issue before the end of 2017. The question put forward by the independent electoral commission at the House of Commons has the merit of being clear: Should the UK remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?

David Cameron wants to win this referendum by rallying British opinion to the status quo. To do this, he has to re‑negotiate the conditions of a membership that is extremely particular to UK with the country’s partners in the European Union. Renegotiation will be a complicated game, meaning that 27 capitals have to be won over.

Although the Member States of the European Union are open to re-negotiation so that UK does not withdraw, all have set red lines that cannot be crossed. In UK itself, Scotland, which is extremely attached to the European Union, is a constraint that David Cameron has to take on board. Caught between the euro sceptics and the 27 European partners, how can David Cameron win a referendum on maintaining the UK in the European Union?