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Les Études du CERI, n°271-272, janvier 2024.

Amérique latine. L’Année politique 2023 est une publication de l’Observatoire politique de l’Amérique latine et des Caraïbes (Opalc) du CERI-Sciences Po. Il prolonge la démarche du site www.sciencespo.fr/opalc en offrant des clés de compréhension d’un continent en proie à des transformations profondes. Des informations complémentaires sont disponibles sur le site.

London, Hurst, 2024, 416 p.

In 2012 Narendra Modi became the first Hindu nationalist politician thrice elected to lead a state of the Indian Union, his stewardship as Chief Minister of Gujarat being the longest in that state’s history. Modi and his BJP supporters explained his achievement by pointing to economic growth under his leadership, yet detractors point out that Modi has been more business-friendly than market-friendly—to the benefit of large industrial corporations, and at the cost of great social polarisation. In 2002, an anti-Muslim pogrom of unparalleled ferocity occurred in Gujarat, leading to the biggest number of Muslim deaths since Partition. The state’s Hindu majority immediately rallied around Modi. No serious riot has occurred in Gujarat since, but polarisation was key to Modi’s strategy there, and he has deployed that strategy again and again since he became Prime Minister of India in 2014. For Modi has cultivated a communal image. A marketing genius, his messaging combines the politics of Hindutva with economic modernisation, to the clear appreciation of Gujarat’s middle class. Christophe Jaffrelot’s revealing book shows how Modi’s Gujarat served as the laboratory of Modi’s India, not only in terms of Hindu majoritarianism and national populism, but also of caste and class politics.

Paris, Seuil (L'Univers historique), 2024, 384 p.

On dit que la France, au XVIe siècle, a manqué son rendez-vous avec le Monde, puisqu’elle n’aurait pris aucune part à l’épopée de l’exploration des sociétés lointaines – flirtant avec le Brésil, mais boudant l’Asie. Pourtant, deux capitaines dieppois, Jean et Raoul Parmentier, conduisent jusqu’à l’île de Sumatra, en 1529, deux nefs de fort tonnage. Ils en ramènent des plaies, des bosses et un peu de poivre. Aujourd’hui oubliée, leur navigation fut érigée au XIXe siècle en preuve incontestable d’une contribution française glorieuse à la geste des Grandes découvertes. C’est toute la Renaissance occidentale qui aurait débarqué, sous pavillon tricolore, en Insulinde. La fable est flatteuse pour l’idée que nous nous sommes longtemps faite de nous-mêmes comme de pionniers, voire de missionnaires de la « modernité ». Il n’est pas certain qu’elle résiste à l’examen. Menée en archives et dans les méandres des chroniques, l’enquête oblige à s’intéresser d’un même mouvement au monde des marins normands et à celui des négociants malais, à la cour de François Ier et à celle du sultan de Tiku, à la poésie mariale du « Puy » de Rouen et à celle des maîtres de mystique musulmans. Ce qui se joue alors le long du troisième parallèle, lorsque les Dieppois font relâche à Sumatra, ne se comprend qu’à condition de rouvrir les portes de la comparaison – entre l’Europe et l’Asie du Sud-Est aussi bien qu’entre le savoir des « gens de mer » et celui des érudits. En nous aidant à contempler, défardées, nos grandes déconvenues, cette traversée nous invite à penser la « modernité » au pluriel et la Renaissance au conditionnel.

Edward Elgar Publishing, 2023, 354 p.

This book offers a novel account of the significant debt crisis which hit many developing countries during the 1980s. It starts with the flawed cycle of bank lending during the 1970s, and then moves from the opening act, in Mexico in 1982, until a solution was found with the 1989 Brady Initiative. The Debt Crisis of the 1980s also articulates closely the economic and financial dimensions alongside the political and multilateral ones. The key relation between debtor countries and the IMF is explored in detail, but the book also documents the tense and often coercive interactions with commercial banks as well as on the continuing resistance to the IMF-led strategy among G7 governments. How debt contracts were restructured during all those years helps understanding how the Brady Initiative worked in practice, and how it prepared the ground for the turn to global markets after 1990. This debt crisis was indeed one of the main incubators of globalisation. This underlines further its unique character in the long-run history of sovereign debts, before and after the 1980s. Remarkably, this book rests on in-depth interviews with the key players. Transcripts are included for the six most important players, including the former heads of the US Federal Reserve and the IMF. Archives from the IMF, the New York Federal Reserve, the Bank of England and commercial banks have also been systematically exploited, often for the first time ever.