World Economic Outlook 2023: A Rocky Recovery?

Join three economists of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) who will discuss what we can expect for the global economy in the near and medium term, based on the three main chapters of the IMF's flagship World Economic Outlook report.

Chapter 1 presents IMF’s views on the global economy and needed policies.

Chapter 2 uses complementary empirical and theoretical approaches to study the evolution of the natural rate of interest, the real interest rate which is consistent with output at potential and stable inflation, in several large advanced and emerging market economies. The chapter also provides projections of the natural rate based on different scenarios and its impact on monetary and fiscal policies.

Chapter 3 looks at the effectiveness of different approaches such as fiscal consolidations and debt restructurings to reduce public debt, against the backdrop of soaring public debt-to-GDP ratios on the back of the pandemic. Drawing on both statistical analysis and case studies, it quantifies the macroeconomic effects of these approaches to draw out policy lessons for advanced, emerging, and low-income economies faced with high public debt in the current environment.

Guest speakers: Mehdi Benatiya Andaloussi, Diaa Noureldin, Nikhil Patel, economists at the IMF

Chair: Golvine de Rochambeau, Assistant Professor in the Department of Economics, Sciences Po ; Scientific Advisor of the Master in International Development at PSIA