Blended Conflict in Eastern Ukraine: Evolutions, Effects and Prospects


More than five years since its outbreak, the conflict in Eastern Ukraine, which many have described as the most acute security crisis in Europe since the Yugoslav wars, is still on-going. The cease-fire is regularly violated, the conflict resolution process led by Germany and France has not produced major results, and the local population in the Donbas continue to be severely affected. Some small steps have, however, been taken in the second half of 2019, such as the exchange of prisoners between Ukraine and Russia and the establishment of circumvented zones of military disengagement. These limited but nevertheless significant developments owe a lot to the new Ukrainian President, Volodymyr Zelensky, who had placed peace at the heart of his political platform. Can these small steps and this new dynamic lead to meaningful and sustainable progress towards the resolution of the conflict? Or is Donbas bound to crystallize into a new ‘frozen conflict’? If so, what would be the consequences for the local population, Ukraine and European security? How does the local population in Donbas perceives and lives the conflict?

Reuniting a panel of experts scholars on political, societal and geopolitical dynamics in and around Ukraine, this round table discussion will shed light on these questions. This panel is organized in the framework of the University Consortium (UC), an academic partnership and inter-regional network aimed at stimulating research, discussions and dialogue on security issues in the Euro-Atlantic space (North America, Europe and Russia). It regularly organizes training modules for outstanding students from its six core member institutions: Harvard University, Columbia University, National Research University – Higher School of Economics (HSE), Moscow State Institute for International Relations (MGIMO), University of Oxford and Sciences Po. Sciences Po will be hosting a UC training module in January 2020. The University Consortium is funded by the Carnegie Corporation of New York.

David Cadier, Researcher and UC Principal, Sciences Po

Olga Oliker, Program Director for Europe and Central Asia, International Crisis Group
Gwendolyn Sasse, Professor, Oxford University, and Director, Centre for East European Studies (ZOiS)
Gerard Toal, Professor, Virginia Tech University

Responsable scientifique : David Cadier, Sciences Po - CERI

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