Can Green Hydrogen Meet the Needs for the EU Green Industrial Development?

By Peter BACHLECHNER, René HOFER, Tristan JARRY, Franziska KAENDLER, Armande LORENTZ, Matteo SIGNORINI

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Green hydrogen rapidly evolves from a niche technology to a strategic pillar of European industrial policy. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen noted during the European Hydrogen Week in November 2023 that “what began as a vision for a few has become central to the strategy of the European Union (EU) for achieving climate neutrality by 2050 [1].” With promises of powering heavy industries, decarbonizing hard-to-abate sectors, and enabling long-term energy storage, green hydrogen has captured the attention of policymakers and industry leaders alike. Yet, fundamental questions persist: To what extent can green hydrogen meet the needs of EU green industrial development, and is it truly a feasible solution for transforming European industry?

The Literature Review examines hydrogen’s role in the industry, focusing on production methods, economic feasibility, and decarbonization potential. Building on an overview of key EU policies, the impact assessment analyzes whether these policies sufficiently support large-scale deployment. A Case Study on the European steel industry combines theoretical insights with practical applications. This analysis concludes by evaluating whether green hydrogen can effectively align policy ambitions with industrial needs and offers recommendations for policymakers.

1. Literature Review: Mapping the Green Hydrogen Landscape

Green hydrogen has emerged in public debate as a potential solution to meet the EU’s climate targets within the framework of the Green Deal [2]. It is an energy carrier that can be stored, transported, and used for decarbonizing energy [3]. Hydrogen is classified as “green” based on its production process, which involves splitting water molecules through electrolysis to separate hydrogen and oxygen using electricity from renewable sources such as solar, wind, or hydropower [4]. The development of green hydrogen is relatively recent, as most hydrogen production still relies on fossil fuels like natural gas, coal, and oil [5]. Electrolysis accounts for only 4% of global hydrogen production, with just 1% sourced from renewable energy [5].

While green hydrogen currently represents a small share of the total hydrogen used in the EU, hydrogen itself has proven useful for various industrial applications. It is predominantly used in the chemical industry for fertilizer production and oil refining [6]. Hydrogen has been established in the industry, mainly as a feedstock, which the European Commission defines as “a raw material going into a chemical process or plant as input to be converted into a product” [7]. Nearly 55% of all hydrogen produced globally is used for ammonia production, which is then converted into fertilizers that account for 1-2% of total global CO₂ emissions. Research indicates significant potential for reducing CO₂ emissions by transitioning to carbon-neutral production methods using green hydrogen [8]. Embracing green hydrogen could facilitate the transition in sectors currently relying on non-green hydrogen, such as refineries (25%), where it serves as an intermediate product for converting crude oil into fuels, and methanol production (10%), which is essential for plastics, construction materials, and various everyday products.

1.1 Use and Potential of Green Hydrogen 

While brown or gray hydrogen, produced from fossil fuel sources, remains more economically advantageous due to a more efficient production process and existing infrastructure [9], green hydrogen offers significant potential for industrial decarbonization. This is driven by the declining costs of renewable energy, which reduces the production costs for electrolysis [2].

Green hydrogen offers various advantages for a sustainable energy transition and strengthening the EU’s energy security [2]. The literature has highlighted the potential uses of green hydrogen for numerous applications, particularly in “hard-to-abate” sectors where electrification options are limited [10]. This includes steel production, the petrochemical industry, and transportation, where green hydrogen can serve as both fuel and raw material [11]. In the transport sector, green hydrogen offers an alternative to fossil fuels, which are high emitters of greenhouse gasses [12]. Additionally, the energy industry could increase its use of hydrogen for energy storage when renewable energy production exceeds electricity demand, enabling the deferred use of this excess energy [12]. Moreover, hydrogen can be used in synthetic fuel creation, allowing industries to reduce their emissions [2].

Figure 1: Average projected hydrogen demand in Europe per sector. Source: European Hydrogen Observatory [13].

As shown in Figure 1, the hydrogen demand in the EU is expected to surge from 8 megatons (Mt) to over 45 Mt per year by 2050 [13]. This growth is projected across all sectors, particularly in Industry and Transportation. In 2022, green hydrogen represented only a minimal share of 0.2% of the total hydrogen production [13]. The EU’s current strategy under REPowerEU sets the goal of producing 10 Mt and importing an additional 10 Mt [14]. Although this may seem ambitious, experts believe the objectives are achievable if all announced projects are successfully implemented [13].

1.2 Perspectives of Green Hydrogen for Green Industries 

Green hydrogen is expected to play a key role in the energy transition to reach a climate-neutral economy by 2050 [14], helping to replace carbon-intensive types of hydrogen.  By 2030, scholars predict that green hydrogen will become a more viable solution in various applications due to economies of scale and technological advancements, while carbon taxes will make green hydrogen production more competitive to brown or gray hydrogen [15]. Creating affordable decarbonization solutions is crucial for achieving a sustainable and green energy transition in the long term [16]. However, limitations to green hydrogen development in industrial manufacturing remain.

Firstly, when hydrogen is used for energy storage, a substantial amount of energy is lost along the process [17;18]. For example, converting electricity into hydrogen through electrolysis is only about 60% efficient. Storing and transporting the hydrogen leads to another 10% loss [19]. Finally, turning hydrogen back into electricity using a fuel cell is only about 50% efficient. Therefore, only about 30% of the original energy is recovered. However, hydrogen can store a lot of energy in a small space, which helps to balance out these losses to a certain extent [19].

Second, hydrogen remains economically prohibitive due to factors such as lack of infrastructure and associated investment costs [20;21]. Large infrastructure projects are needed to build capacities to store hydrogen on a large scale. However, in the EU, most regions are not sufficiently equipped to store and transport hydrogen. Therefore, large projects to develop hydrogen will be necessary to scale up the production and use of green hydrogen in the future [22]. 

Third, and most importantly, green hydrogen is significantly more expensive to produce than CO₂-intensive types of hydrogen. However, El-Emam and Özcan [23] argue that “geothermal, biomass, and nuclear-driven electrolysis and thermochemical technologies represent competitive and promising hydrogen cost values that may replace the conventional methods for hydrogen generation.” Scovell [24], therefore, argues that green hydrogen can be more cost-efficient and might replace CO₂-intensive types of hydrogen if appropriate regulatory frameworks are introduced. These frameworks should facilitate production, storage, and transportation of green hydrogen while encouraging investment to promote its growing use in green industries [2]. 

Research thus suggests that green hydrogen holds substantial potential to decarbonate industries, provided policymakers address the sector’s key challenges. Significant investments in infrastructure and facilities are essential to enhance electrolysis efficiency, increase the energy density of hydrogen storage systems, and support the large-scale deployment of green hydrogen [2]. By focusing on infrastructure development and offering targeted incentives, governments can accelerate the adoption of green hydrogen and benefit from its potential for the climate transition.

2. Driving the Hydrogen Revolution: EU Policies & Strategic Roadmaps

The EU first created a comprehensive policy framework on green hydrogen in 2020, building upon the more ambitious decarbonization targets set by the European Green Deal and the ambitions of the EU Industrial Strategy. The EU Hydrogen Strategy focused on creating a functioning, cost-competitive hydrogen market through policy frameworks and investment support. The strategy aims to produce up to 10 Mt of green hydrogen yearly by 2030, measured in electrolyzer capacity.  Notably, it also included provisions for incorporating low-carbon (“blue”) hydrogen as a complementary source in the short to medium term, alongside green hydrogen production. [14]

The REPowerEU Plan, adopted in 2022, responded to the need to phase out Russian fossil fuels by accelerating the clean energy transition. REPowerEU concretized the EU’s target of producing 10 Mt of green hydrogen by 2030 domestically and supplemented it with an additional 10 Mt in imports from third countries [25]. To this end, the associated EU External Energy Strategy tasked the European Commission with concluding Hydrogen Partnerships with potential suppliers [26]. A Commission Staff Working Document accompanying the REPowerEU Plan set out the Hydrogen Accelerator, which comprises measures to scale up hydrogen uptake by promoting demand and supply, developing infrastructure in the EU, and engaging internationally [27].

These targets have been accompanied by policy measures under the Fit-for-55 package to set the legal framework for incorporating hydrogen into EU energy markets and to facilitate its uptake. Two EU Delegated Acts on Renewable Hydrogen (2023) regulate the criteria for hydrogen and its derivatives to qualify as renewable and lay down the methodology for calculating its lifecycle greenhouse gasses (GHG) emissions [28]. The EU Hydrogen and Gas Decarbonization package comprises measures to remove internal market barriers to develop a hydrogen market and designated infrastructure [29].

The Commission has sought to facilitate hydrogen uptake for specific end uses. Published in conjunction with the EU Hydrogen Strategy, the EU Strategy for Energy System Integration considered hydrogen as one element in the broader decarbonization framework of the EU energy system, highlighting its role as a fuel and feedstock in hard-to-decarbonize sectors [30]. The revision of the Renewable Energy Directive, adopted in 2023, sets binding targets for uptake in the industrial sector, with 42% and 60% of hydrogen used in the industry by 2030 and 2035, respectively, having to qualify as renewable under the EU Delegated Act [31]. A further enabling mechanism is the European Hydrogen Bank. This double-auction-based financing instrument intends to promote the emergence of a green hydrogen market by covering the green premium and reducing market uncertainty for private investment [32]. Figure 2 provides a schematic overview of the previously mentioned EU policy related to green hydrogen.

Figure 2: Comprehensive Overview of EU Policies on Hydrogen. Source: Own Creation

2.1 The Funding of Green Hydrogen Policies

While there is no designated EU fund for green hydrogen, public investment is available through other EU funds dedicated to ecological transition, renewable energy, and transport-related issues. The European Commission has established the Hydrogen Public Funding Compass [33] to gather the various existing funding mechanisms. Green hydrogen projects can benefit from:

• European Regional Development Fund (ERDF) as part of the Cohesion policy;
• Connecting Europe Facility (CET) to support the development of trans-European energy and transport networks;
• Horizon Europe to foster research and innovation;
• Innovation Fund;
• Just Transition Fund (JTF) to help regions transitioning to greener energy.

Additionally, NextGenerationEU includes a green transition pillar. Several Important Projects of Common European Interest (IPCEIs) have also targeted hydrogen value chains. Lastly, next to the Clean Hydrogen Partnership, which focuses on research and innovation, the European Clean Hydrogen Alliance aims to facilitate hydrogen uptake in industry by bringing together relevant public and private stakeholders [34].

Tracking green hydrogen funding remains complex, with contributions from EU-wide funds, national schemes, private investments, and blended financing instruments [35]. Figure 3 maps the flow of EU funds, starting from broad sources like the EU budget, bonds, and Emission Trading System (ETS) revenues, which funnel into major programs such as Horizon Europe before reaching hydrogen-specific instruments like the Hydrogen Bank. Color-coding highlights how funds are mixed and repurposed at various stages. Figure 4 illustrates blended financing, where EU institutions partner with private investors through initiatives like Breakthrough Energy Catalyst, with the European Investment Bank (EIB) also playing a significant role. Additionally, Member States contribute through their national initiatives, further complicating the funding landscape.

Figure 3: Mapping EU-specific funding flows for clean hydrogen projects. Source: Kneebone [35]

Figure 4: Mapping blended financing flows for clean hydrogen projects in the EU. Source: Kneebone [35].

3. Preliminary Impact Assessment: EU Green Hydrogen Policies in Action

EU policies concerning green hydrogen, its funding, and its future role in delivering the Union’s energy transition by mid-century can be classified as ground-breaking and ambitious.  Being one of the first international actors to develop a comprehensive green hydrogen strategy [36], the EU aims to become a global leader in this emerging field. While a definitive assessment is premature due to the recent implementation of these policies, a preliminary evaluation can highlight the main points of contention that have already emerged.

In July 2024, the European Court of Auditors (ECA) published a report analyzing the current EU legislation on green hydrogen. The ECA has commended the institutions for swiftly approving a robust package of regulations, creating a comprehensive framework while providing desirable legal certainty on green hydrogen. Nevertheless, the targets set, such as the goal of producing and importing a combined 20 Mt of green hydrogen by 2030, have been defined as “overly ambitious,” and the overall strategy needs a “reality check” [37]. The ECA states that many objectives lack thorough analysis and are driven by political will, creating a vague and hard-to-implement patchwork of measures. This is especially evident in the investment and funding for the transition, with €18.8 billion allocated for 2021-2027, spread across various programs and unevenly distributed among Member States [37]. Without a definitive guarantee that the EU’s hydrogen production potential may be harnessed throughout all Member States, companies are in a difficult position to understand the best type of funding to choose to reach their goals [37]. 

Furthermore, ECA and experts have pointed out the EU’s struggle to address the significant differences among Member States to green hydrogen. These countries diverge widely in legislative frameworks, potential for hydrogen use, and expected production capacities. In 2021, nearly all EU Member States acknowledged the importance of green hydrogen in their mandatory 2030 National Energy and Climate Plans (NECPs), identifying it as a crucial element for decarbonizing fuel use. However, less than half of the Member States developed a national hydrogen plan, and few addressed the application of green hydrogen across various sectors.

The potential for hydrogen utilization varies significantly among countries; for instance, some Member States, such as France and the Netherlands, are well-positioned to enhance their domestic energy storage capabilities, while others, particularly the Nordic countries, prioritize its use for heating in buildings. Meanwhile, countries like Germany and Austria focus on harnessing hydrogen for industrial production. Additionally, Member States with greater demand potential tend to have significantly higher production capacities than smaller states [38].

Finally, as mentioned, the Commission has set a target of importing 10 Mt of green hydrogen from foreign countries into the EU by 2030 under the REPowerEU framework [39]. However, this goal is overly ambitious, particularly given the current geopolitical climate, which forces the EU to consider the “political costs of import choices” alongside economic competitiveness when selecting external suppliers [40].

To attract investments and support Member States, the EU should revise its green hydrogen framework for greater coherence and clarity, acknowledging the differences among Member States and providing guidance for their national hydrogen strategies. A detailed and accessible description of foreign green hydrogen imports is also necessary [41]. Lastly, comprehensive analyses of the feasibility of increased green hydrogen usage in European industries must be conducted to facilitate efficient industrial transformation.

4. Forging a Greener Future: The Case of the European Steel Industry

To understand the potential impact of green hydrogen policies on European industry, it is crucial to examine one of the most significant and carbon-intensive sectors: steel production. As the world’s most important engineering material, steel has many applications, such as in the automobile, technology, construction, and defense industries. The sector, which gross value-added accounts for €191 billion per year in the EU, annually produces 140 million tons and employs more than 2.5 million people [42].  Moreover, steel represents a crucial export product for the EU (Figure 5). The continent is the second largest producer (14.1% of global production) after China (73.9%) and before North America (6%) [43]. While the steel sector is undeniably a strategic industry for the EU, it is also a significant source of pollution. It is responsible for 9% of the global GHG emissions and 4% of the EU’s CO₂ emissions due to the massive use of coal. Estimates state that 1.85 tons of CO₂ is emitted to produce 1 ton of steel [44]. 

Figure 5: Map of Steel Production in 2022. Source: EUROFER [42]. 

Given its strategic nature, the steel industry benefits from free allowance as part of the EU’s ETS scheme [45]. However, due to shifting political dynamics within the Union, the allocation of free allowances is expected to be gradually phased out, driving the need for sustainable alternatives. Green hydrogen is emerging as a key alternative in steel production, as replacing coal with this clean fuel could significantly reduce the industry’s environmental impact [44]. This transition would also lead to more investments in renewable energies to sustain green hydrogen production requirements. While green hydrogen offers promising opportunities, its limitations may temper the enthusiasm surrounding its potential.

First, hydrogen production capacities are currently insufficient to meet industrial demands, and production has been highly energy-intensive. Consequently, scaling up hydrogen production for widespread industrial use will necessitate a significant increase in green electricity generation. Presently, producing 1 kilogram of hydrogen requires about 50 to 55 kWh of electricity, while 1 ton of steel requires approximately 50 kg of hydrogen [45]. For Germany, the EU’s largest steel producer, fully decarbonizing its annual production of 42 million tons of steel would require around 100 TWh of renewable energy, leading to a 20% increase in renewable electricity production [44].

The second limitation pertains to the impact of green hydrogen on steel prices, as it remains costly. Currently, the price of 1 ton of steel is approximately €400, with coal costs making up €50. Replacing coal with green hydrogen would result in roughly a 30% price increase, as producing 1 ton of steel would require €180 worth of hydrogen at competitive prices of €3.6/kg. Although mass production could lower hydrogen production costs to an estimated €1.8/kg in the long term, it remains expensive now [44]. These higher prices threaten the EU’s competitiveness abroad, particularly since EU steel is already pricier than its main competitors (see Figure 6 below). While the ETS scheme may help the European steel industry remain competitive within the EU, it will struggle to export against more competitive American and Chinese steel. Additionally, rising steel prices would negatively affect the costs and competitiveness of other steel-dependent industries, such as the automobile sector.

Hence, green hydrogen does represent a solution to foster the decarbonization of the EU industry, its limitations in terms of production capacity and cost must be acknowledged to preserve the competitiveness of the European steel industry. 

Figure 6: Hot rolled Coil Production Costs in the Steel Industry. Source: Draghi Report [45].

5. Charting the Path Forward: Green Hydrogen as the Future of EU Industry?

Green hydrogen stands at a critical juncture in the EU’s industrial landscape, poised to play a pivotal role in decarbonizing heavy industries and meeting climate targets. Our analysis confirms that while green hydrogen has the potential to significantly mitigate carbon emissions, particularly in “hard-to-abate” sectors such as steel and chemicals, its current viability is hampered by several key obstacles. These include high production costs, insufficient infrastructure, and energy inefficiencies throughout the hydrogen lifecycle.

The evidence suggests that green hydrogen can indeed fulfill a substantial role in the EU’s industrial strategy, contingent upon robust policy frameworks, significant investments, and innovative technologies. The EU’s ambitious targets, as outlined in the Hydrogen Strategy and REPowerEU plan, demonstrate a strong commitment to integrating green hydrogen into industrial processes. However, the ECA has aptly pointed out the need for a “reality check” on these ambitious objectives, emphasizing the importance of a coherent and cohesive regulatory environment that accommodates the diverse needs and capabilities of Member States.

To realize the potential of green hydrogen, several interconnected actions must be prioritized. First and foremost, investment in infrastructure is crucial for supporting large-scale production, storage, and distribution of green hydrogen. This initiative not only necessitates substantial financial backing but also the establishment of public-private partnerships to foster innovation and facilitate technology transfer. Concurrently, regulatory frameworks need refinement to provide clearer guidelines and incentives for companies transitioning to green hydrogen. Policymakers should consider implementing a carbon pricing mechanism that accurately reflects the environmental costs associated with carbon-intensive hydrogen production, thereby leveling the playing field for greener alternatives.

Furthermore, ongoing research and development efforts are essential to enhance electrolysis efficiency and improve energy storage solutions, addressing current technological limitations. It is also vital to develop sector-specific strategies tailored to various industries, as demonstrated by case studies like that of the steel industry, which could include targeted incentives and goals. Additionally, international cooperation should be pursued to establish a global green hydrogen market in line with the EU’s plans for hydrogen imports. Lastly, policy harmonization is necessary to address the discrepancies between Member States’ hydrogen strategies and capabilities, ensuring that all countries receive the targeted support and guidance required to transition effectively towards green hydrogen.

While green hydrogen offers a promising path to meet the EU’s need for green industrial ambitions, its development must be pursued within a broader energy transition effort, including the expansion of renewable energy capacity and grid infrastructure improvements. In conclusion, green hydrogen represents not just a technological solution but a strategic imperative for transforming European industry. Its successful integration will require a holistic approach, combining policy innovation, technological advancement, and strategic investments to bridge the gap between visionary objectives and practical industrial needs.

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