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The Impact of Climate Attribution Science on Global Climate Action

© Wurliburli from Pixabay

By Jonathan F. Proksch

Over the past two decades, attribution science has rapidly evolved as an emerging field of climate science. Across four main pillars it aims to quantify and explain the links between climate change and the climate system, extreme events, impacts, and sources. Climate change attribution, focusing on the effects of increasing greenhouse gas concentrations on the climate system, has been systematically studied since the 1990s (Otto, 2016). Extreme event attribution, emerging in the early 2000s, assesses how climate change impacts the probability and characteristics of specific extreme events (Stott et al., 2004). More recent additions include impact attribution, which evaluates broader impacts on society and ecosystems, and source attribution, identifying specific contributors to climate change.

Attribution analysis relies on advanced computer models to simulate the Earth’s climate system. The same models are run twice: first with pre-industrial levels of greenhouse gas concentrations, and again with the actual annual concentrations. The observed differences between the two runs are then used to determine the extent to which climate change has altered an extreme event’s likelihood and intensity (Otto, 2016).

However, climate attribution science still faces significant limitations, primarily due to natural variability and the adequacy of available data (Cho, 2021). The analysis of some extreme events, such as precipitation, is more complex due to their higher year-to-year variability, making it difficult to isolate the effects of climate change. In addition, the accuracy of climate models depends heavily on access to high-resolution, long-term, reliable data. As a result, some regions are underrepresented due to lack of data (Pidcock & McSweeney, 2022).

Although relatively new, attribution science has been instrumental in advancing climate action by deepening understanding of the complex dynamics of climate change. In providing evidence-based insights into the links between climate change and extreme events, impacts, and sources, climate attribution is raising awareness of the risks associated with climate change and the urgency of global climate action. As a result, attribution science has enriched decision-making processes for international and national climate mitigation and adaptation policies (Merner, 2023). Attribution science has further strengthened the scientific consensus on the reality and severity of climate change, thus contributing to an increased public support and awareness. Moreover, attribution studies have also been explored as a tool for predicting extreme weather events through so-called advance forecasted attribution analysis. However, initial attempts at such forecasting have had limited or no success (Pidcock & McSweeney, 2022). In addition to advancing scientific understanding and climate mitigation and adaptation, attribution science plays a central role in climate litigation. Cases involving both mitigation obligations and climate change liability have proliferated in recent years, drawing on evidence from a more precise and comprehensive set of impact and source attribution studies (UNEP, 2023). Yet, the methodology of impact attribution analysis needs to be further refined to advance scientific understanding of the causal links between climate change and society (James et al., 2019). Impact attribution is inherently more complex due to the large number of relevant factors and considerations of vulnerability and exposure (Otto, 2016).

Therefore, while attribution science has come a long way in relatively little time, further evolution in terms of methodology, data, and implementation is needed.

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