Designing climate cooperation in a fractured world
14 November 2025
Launch of the 2025 World Energy Outlook at Paris Energy Week
25 November 2025
This year, as we commemorate the 10th anniversary of the signing of the Paris Agreement and the 30th anniversary of the first United Nations Climate Change Conference, the COP in Belém intends to place forests at the heart of discussions. At CERI, we continue to research and analyse decisions, power relations, conflicts of interest, and how nations group together to negotiate more effectively. Each year, we publish field reports that describe the various debates and dynamics on the ground — impressions that are difficult to perceive from a distance. This year, our chronicles are written by Sarah Tegas and Matthew Winkler, who are doctoral students at CERI and Sarah Thompson doctoral student at the Université libre de Bruxelles and Senior Research Programme Manager at the European Chair for Sustainable Development and Climate Transition, Sciences Po.
Day Zero & One, Sunday 9, Monday 10 November 2025
by Sarah Tegas
Flight to COP 30 in Belém, Brasil; Opening ceremony of COP30; China Pavilion at COP 30 in Belém
On Sunday 9th, while landing at the doors of the Amazon in Belém, the atmosphere of COP30 was palpable, from the view of the forest from above to the fully COP-themed airport. This perfectly illustrates the political narrative that the Brazilian presidency is seeking to promote by hosting the COP in Belém. The initiative connects leaders with the world’s lungs, which are home to 30% of the planet’s biodiversity and one of the biggest carbon sinks. The aim is to enable leaders to see first-hand the solutions and consequences of climate change. Preserving the Amazon is fundamental to addressing the climate crisis given the amount of carbon it absorbs from the air and its importance for climatic stability and the quality and quantity of water. However, the region’s exposure to extractivism is also one of the root causes of the climate challenge. Although deforestation rates have fallen since 2022, over the past decade the Amazon has lost over 54.2 million hectares of forest (almost 9% of its forest), an area the size of France. This COP is also about the people who have inhabited these forests for centuries, whose traditional knowledge of preserving them is pivotal in achieving the climate transition.
This global event puts Indigenous communities at the forefront. Although they are not an official party to the negotiations, they have been granted observer status as part of the Indigenous Peoples NGO constituency (IPO). Significant efforts are being made to encourage their representation and participation in the process. In this regard, this year’s COP will see the launch of the Tropical Forest Forever Facility Fund (TFFF), which will provide much-needed financial support for the protection and restoration of forests. Furthermore, the Loss & Damage Fund has just published its call for proposals from affected countries. I attended the launch event, which featured speeches from high-level speakers including the COP30 President and ambassadors from Barbados, the Philippines, South Africa and Germany. The timing of the call for funding requests for L&D could not be better, unfortunately, given that Jamaica and the Philippines have just been hit by devastating hurricanes, displacing 1.4 million people and costing each country billions.
Regarding the heart of the negotiations, the parties have agreed on the agenda, with a few items being discussed and consulted on by the presidency. These new agenda items propose addressing the ambition gap in climate finance as seen at last year’s COP, as well as the implications of unilateral trade measures (in reference to CBAM) as well as the NDC framework regarding the lack of ambition and compliance with submission deadline. On Wednesday, the Presidency will host a plenary session to announce the way forward on the agenda.
Launch of the Fund for responding to Loss and Damage Call for Proposals, with Ambassador Elizabeth Thompson from Barbados (second to the left), and the COP30 President André Corrêa do Lago (4th to the right)
Negotiations under the formats of ‘informal consultations’ and ‘contact groups’ have started on matters relating to adaptation (the global goal on adaptation and the Adaptation Fund), carbon markets (Article 6) and the mitigation framework. Outside of the negotiations, countries and organisations are setting up their pavilions, where they will host side events, meet with partners, and showcase their organisations’ work. Due to the increasing costs of these pavilions, many countries and organisations are joining forces, for example the Moana Pavilion is hosting the Pacific Island States and the Ocean Pavilion is gathering foundations and research institutes. Finally, the COP venue is still under construction, with some areas lacking electricity and air conditioning. Some areas have been flooded due to heavy rain during the negotiations, which has affected the sound quality.
Event at the Moana Pavilion with Pacific Island States Delegates; Still installing the COP 30; Ocean Pavilion meeting with Jacinda Ardern, Former Prime Minister of New Zealand
Day Two, Tuesday 11 November 2025
by Sarah Tegas
“Torrential rain. Intense heat. Thunder. Blocked toilets. Flooded walkways. A soaked press centre. Vibrant protests. Street parties. And now a riot. We’re just two days into COP30 but this is a summit that resembles the glorious chaos of humanity better than any other in recent memory. The Belém COP is the 2nd largest attendance in history and possibly the most exciting.”
– From Ed King, Climate diplomacy debrief
While negotiations on certain contentious agenda items (such as unilateral trade measures, climate finance deployment and Article 9.1, as well as the NDC synthesis report) are ongoing, other negotiations are now in full swing. Notably, these include those on the Global Goal for Adaptation, which aim to pave the way for the 100+ indicators set up by a group of experts to monitor and report on adaptation capacity and needs. The negotiations lasted 3 hours and 30 minutes and concluded with the co-facilitators being given a mandate to produce a draft negotiating text, which is a very positive development in the negotiation process.
Negociation room, COP 30, 11 November 2025
While the negotiations are in full swing, the participants and delegates also divide their time between the main event and the side-events. The latter provide spaces for knowledge-sharing and the co-creation of ideas, but they can also influence the negotiations themselves by addressing issues that might not be directly on the agenda. I attended a side-event on ‘The Mangrove Breakthrough: Mobilising Global Leadership and Large-Scale Finance”, which was attended by representatives from Brazil, Papua New Guinea, Costa Rica and Pakistan. The speakers discussed the importance of mangroves for carbon storage and sequestration, as well as how to mobilise financial resources for their ecosystem services.
Then, the Moana Pavilion presented their Pacific Resilience Facility, which is a ‘Pacific-owned and Pacific-led solution’ that aims to provide a community-centred resilience finance mechanism to respond to climate events, pursue adaptation goals, and facilitate transitions. Regarding high-level issues, a decision has not yet been made at COP31, but Ethiopia has been confirmed as the host country for COP32. Meanwhile, the Brazilian presidency is deploying all their diplomatic resources and managing the negotiations with strong leadership based on the concept of ‘mutirão’, which is defined as:
A continuous method of mobilization that begins before, extends through, and continues beyond COP30. A proposal to transform the conference into a true milestone of civilizational turn: the establishment of spaces for active listening, strengthening the ties between the local and the global, and valuing the diversity of voices and knowledge.
Despite the Presidency’s efforts to include local voices and indigenous communities — many of whom have been granted access to negotiation spaces, pavilions, and events — their representatives and priorities are still lacking inclusion in the process, access to halls of power, and reflection of their key messages: ‘Our lands are not for sale’. As many may have seen in the media, a group of protesters led by indigenous leaders attempted to bypass security and enter the venue, leading to a confrontation with security staff and minor injuries.
Participants waiting to exit the venue during the forced entrance of a group of protestors, 11 November 2025.
Day Three, Wednesday 12 November 2025
by Sarah Thompson
Today marked the third round of Presidency Consultations on the four “contentious” proposed agenda items. While the Presidency managed to kick off COP30 without a dispute over the agenda (unlike what occurred earlier this year at SB62 in Bonn), tensions arose instead during these consultations which covered the following four issues:
- Article 9.1 of the Paris Agreement concerns the legal obligation of developed countries to provide public, grant-based, predictable finance for mitigation and adaptation in developing countries—distinct from mobilised private finance under Article 9.3.
- Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) and Biennial Transparency Report (BTR) synthesis reports provide an aggregate picture of where global efforts stand relative to current submissions and the Paris temperature goals, highlighting gaps in ambition, implementation, and support. Several Parties—such as the Arab Group and Like Minded Developing Countries—caution that adding this topic as a formal agenda item could alter the Paris Agreement’s architecture by creating additional burdens and reporting requirements, while other Parties—such as Alliance Of Small Island States—support placing it on the agenda to spotlight insufficient NDC ambition, using it as a platform to press for accelerated implementation of the Paris Agreement and enhanced ambition consistent with keeping 1.5°C within reach.
- Unilateral trade measures (UTMs) include climate-related border or market measures—like the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism, about to enter its definitive stage—that may affect exports, livelihoods, or development prospects; several Parties seek guardrails such as advance notification, impact assessment, consultation, and alignment with Convention principles (e.g., equity and avoiding disguised protectionism).
Tulio Andrade, Program Director of the COP30 Presidency, acts as the moderator on behalf of the Brazilian Presidency for these consultations
Thus far, the consultations have demonstrated that many parties, especially those from developing countries (including AILAC, AGN, LMDC, the Arab Group, LDCs, South Africa and China), are concerned that core issues under Article 9.1 and UTMs are being sidelined in favour of broader debates about finance flows (e.g. Article 2.1(c) of the Paris Agreement and the new collective quantified goal [NCQG] for climate finance agreed in Baku). These groups have reiterated their calls for a dedicated work programme or negotiating track on Article 9.1, including burden-sharing arrangements and clearer accounting of public finance provision. In contrast, developed countries were largely in favour of discussing it only within the context of Article 9 as a whole and with respect to the NCQG.
Many parties emphasised the ongoing finance and ambition gaps, linking the shortcomings of NDCs and BTRs to unmet commitments by developed countries, insufficient concessional finance, and limited predictability and transparency. Proposals ranged from incorporating synthesis-report findings and quantifying adaptation needs, to strengthening reporting mechanisms, and establishing structured notification and assessment procedures for UTMs. Several parties stressed the importance of equity, non-discrimination and avoiding protectionism, while the EU emphasised the need for compromise, procedural balance and maintaining process integrity. Others raised concerns about the pace and direction of the discussions, calling for safeguards and a ‘no surprises’ approach, as well as a more solutions-oriented pathway. Finally, the broader discussion touched on international cooperation, considering how parties can support each other in implementation, ensuring that such cooperation enables climate action without diluting core obligations or shifting responsibility away from developed countries.
A brief stocktaking plenary was convened to finalise these consultations, but it was quickly adjourned as the parties remained far from reaching an agreement. This prompted the presidency to extend the consultations into the coming days. The COP30 President, André Corrêa do Lago, noted that, despite more than eight hours of discussions taking place and progress being made in understanding each other’s perspectives, several parties had stressed the need for additional time. He proposed continuing the consultations and conducting a new stocktake on Saturday. He outlined the following key guardrails: preserving the architecture and policy cycle of the Paris Agreement; ensuring constructive and respectful engagement on all four proposed agenda items; protecting the nationally determined nature of NDCs and the GST-2 mandate; and maintaining an open, inclusive and transparent process with observer participation.
A view of the Stocktaking Plenary, highlighting the absent United States delegation.
Day Four, Thursday 13 November 2025
by Sarah Thompson and Sarah Tegas
The fourth round of Presidency Consultations began with the Presidency describing it as a ‘group therapy session’, with parties repeatedly being told they were ‘loved’ when their time to speak was cut short. Meanwhile, AILAC summed up the mood bluntly: ‘I know you love us and we love you, but we’ve had a toxic relationship since September,’ whereas China indicated that they did not need therapy, but rather massages and yoga.
EU negotiators during the 4th round of Presidency Consultations on Article 9.1, NDC and BTR synthesis reports, and UTMs, 13 November 2025.
Demands for a dedicated work programme on Article 9.1 and structured discussions on UTMs dominated once again. Many warned that the provision of finance remains the ‘missing piece of the Paris Agreement’ and that UTMs risk undermining sustainable development and CBDR-RC. Frustration mounted over what AOSIS described as inconsistent behaviour across negotiating rooms. Parties were showing a willingness to adhere to a 1.5°C target here, yet were pushing back against references to 1.5°C in other rooms and on other topics. Developing-country groups reiterated that ambition cannot advance without enablers, emphasising that finance must remain central and not be reframed through the NCQG alone. Some developed countries pushed back against what they saw as “finger-pointing”, with the EU noting that its policies were being invoked disproportionately. A debate over ‘guardrails’ for the process revealed a sharp divergence: several parties sought clarity in order to protect the architecture of the Paris Agreement, while others argued that imposing guardrails would predetermine outcomes.
GAUC Pavilion Event
At the Global Alliance of Universities on Climate pavilion, I (Sarah Tegas) presented my research alongside colleagues from the Australian National University and the University of the South Pacific. We all expressed our admiration for the determination of the Pacific Island States in combatting climate change and pushing for the highest levels of ambition in international negotiations. They have also inspired our respective research projects. There were many synergies regarding how we investigate the influence they exert through regional organisation, blue ocean strategy, and mobility policies.
Research Talanoa – Advancing Climate Research for Effective Policy and Community Resilience.
The panel was organised around a research talanoa, a traditional Pacific concept referring to a process of inclusive, participatory and transparent dialogue involving the sharing of stories, the building of empathy and the making of collective decisions.
Beyond the COP: the People’s House (Casa do Povo).
While the COP venue is full of negotiating rooms, suits and ties, Belém also hosts a variety of ‘houses’ where civil society gathers and sometimes holds its own negotiations. One of these is the People’s House, located on the campus of the University of Belém, where students were given two weeks off to allow for its setup. There was a huge market where local and indigenous communities sold artisanal garments and food, and performed dances and music. The campus is also located by the Amazon River, where some of the flotillas that came sailing to the COP were docked, including the Greenpeace Rainbow Warrior boat.
Day Five, Friday 14 November 2025
by Sarah Thompson and Sarah Tegas
A Turbulent Start Outside the Venue
The COP30 conference got off to a turbulent start when the main entrance to the venue was shut down early in the morning following the arrival of the Indigenous flotilla in Belém. Indigenous protesters blocked access to the venue. Delegates, myself included, were left standing in chaotic queues amid a heavy military presence, first being redirected to the exit and then sent back to the entrance. The protesters had demanded a meeting with President Lula, but instead they were granted a one-hour sit-down conversation with COP30 President André Corrêa do Lago, during which they discussed their concerns over participation and the unique threats facing Indigenous communities.
Presidency Consultations
During the conference, progress on the Presidency Consultations regarding Article 9.1, UTMs and the NDC/BTR synthesis reports was minimal. Much of today’s discussion centred on the tenth anniversary of the Paris Agreement — a milestone that the EU negotiator described as ‘a celebration with sobriety’, reflecting both the significant decline in renewable energy costs and the ongoing lack of global ambition. A separate meeting on Article 9.1 also took place, following the controversial agenda-setting dispute on this issue in Bonn earlier this year. With Article 9.1 now having been discussed within the Presidency Consultations, the earlier group’s mandate appears to have ended without a meaningful conclusion being reached. Article 2.1(c) An informal consultation was held on Article 2.1(c) of the Paris Agreement. This aims to ensure that finance flows — public and private — are aligned with low-emission, climate-resilient development pathways. However, parties remain deeply divided on what this means in practice. During the session, countries debated whether and how to pursue further work on Article 2.1(c), with opinions divided between continuing a technical dialogue and moving towards more formal guidance or structured outcomes. Developing countries stressed that 2.1(c) must remain non-prescriptive and non-punitive, fully respect national sovereignty and complement—rather than replace—the finance obligations of Article 9.1, and warned against links to assessment frameworks or the Global Stocktake. Meanwhile, developed countries supported exploring non-prescriptive guidance, improved coordination and continued dialogue. Some called for workshops or high-level forums to maintain momentum. In the absence of a common interpretation of Article 2.1(c), the co-facilitators will prepare a new version of the text reflecting today’s broad — but still divergent — contributions.
Papua New Guinea Pavillon
Side-events progressed in full swing – and sometimes with technical difficulties when electricity and microphones were not responding, delegates were adapting on the go, as was the case on the Papua New Guinea (PNG) pavilion where a few delegates joined their country representatives to hear about their forest protection measures. PNG is one of the biggest Pacific Island States, with a population of around 12 million people, whereby traditional communities and lifestyles are explicitly protected by the country’s Constitution. It is also one of the most linguistically diverse countries in the world. PNG is home to large rainforest covers and highly resourceful ecosystems, hosting over 7% of the world’s species on less than 1% of the planet’s land mass.
PNG was also part of the leading countries, together with Costa Rica to request the set-up of a forest financing mechanism in the UNFCCC which came to be the Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD+) tool – aims to provide financial incentives to developing countries for protecting and conserving forests, one of which being tradeable carbon credits. REDD+ has not been immune to a large amount of controversies and criticism due to human rights infringement of communities living in the forest areas and a lack of tangible emissions reduction from its carbon crediting scheme.
PNG sought to address this complex regime in its side-event titled “Accelerating PNG’s REDD+ Implementation: Strategy and Guidance Framework”. The panelists shared with optimism their advancements in implementing REDD+ through a largely bottom-up set-up as they established a nation-wide consultation to develop guidelines around the mechanism. Some of the key challenges they face are logging and ensuring the protection of land rights.
Day Six, Saturday 15 November 2025
by Sarah Thompson
Protests Return to the COP, 15 November 2025.
The day began with the return of the mid-week protest, which observers said felt like the old days of the COP given that demonstrations had been restricted by the last three hosts (Azerbaijan, the UAE and Egypt). The protest included a symbolic ‘fossil fuel funeral’, complete with coffins and activists dressed in black. My bus was diverted on the way to the venue, so I only saw part of the march as it moved through the city.
Third High-level Ministerial Dialogue on Climate Finance under the CMA, 15 November 2025.
The focus of this meeting was on finding short- and medium-term solutions to strengthen predictability and delivery under Articles 9.1 and 9.3 of the Paris Agreement, as well as supporting the new collective quantified goal (NCQG). André Corrêa do Lago, President of COP30, stressed that ‘the world does not lack financial resources — only the will and capacity to redirect them’, urging a financial architecture that lowers the cost of capital for developing countries and treats climate finance as a driver of ambition rather than a constraint. UNFCCC Executive Secretary Simon Stiell described climate finance as ‘the lifeblood of climate action’, warning that ambition would stall without reliable funding and calling for adaptation finance to be tripled and grants, concessionality and non-debt instruments to be scaled up. IPCC Chair Jim Skea highlighted stark gaps in both mitigation and adaptation finance, particularly for developing countries, and previewed major improvements in the next assessment cycle. These include a dedicated chapter on adaptation finance and clearer methodologies for tracking needs and outcomes. MDBs, represented by the IDB, pointed to significant new lending capacity of up to USD 1 trillion if reforms are completed, while the Green Climate Fund showcased record approvals, increased disbursements and growing adaptation portfolios.
Avinash Persaud, from the Inter-American Development Bank, 15 November 2025.
Party interventions broadly echoed these themes: developed countries emphasised expanded guarantees, innovative finance and improved access, whereas developing countries highlighted persistent shortfalls, high debt burdens and the need for more grants, concessionality and transparency. Many reiterated that Article 2.1(c) must complement, not replace, core obligations under Article 9 and called for a more practical and predictable pathway to meet the scale of needs.
The joint high-level event on the recently released Baku to Belém Roadmap to USD 1.3 trillion (see here for the executive summary) showcased significant stakeholder engagement, with over 220 contributions from both parties and non-parties shaping the document.
COP30 President André Corrêa do Lago (left), alongside key leaders of the COP30 and COP29 Presidencies, 15 November 2025.
The Azeri and Brazilian Presidencies of COP29 and COP30 emphasised that achieving USD 1.3 trillion by 2035 is feasible, but requires accelerated action, enhanced coordination, and a financial framework that redirects capital on a large scale while increasing grants, concessional financing, and fiscal space for developing countries. UNFCCC Executive Secretary Simon Stiell presented the Roadmap as a transition from commitment to implementation, urging climate finance to be viewed as “not charity, but smart economics”, while the COP29 Presidency outlined five areas of action (the “5 Rs”) — replenishing, rebalancing, rechannelling, revamping and reshaping the global financial system.
A number of key negotiators from different countries were in the audience. When invited to speak, they expressed broad support but also raised clear concerns. Many developing countries emphasised the importance of firmly anchoring the roadmap in Articles 9.1 and 9.3, ensuring access for vulnerable groups, and distinguishing climate finance obligations (which are binding under international law, as demonstrated by the recent advisory opinion of the International Court of Justice) from Article 2.1(c). Others welcomed the roadmap as a useful evolving tool, while cautioning that several recommendations fall outside the UNFCCC’s remit and will require careful follow-up.
Day 7, Monday 17 November 2025
by Sarah Thompson
After a much-needed day of rest, COP30 now enters its second week, as ministers have been paired in an effort to unlock the stickiest political issues while a High-Level Segment sees delegates delivering statements through Tuesday. The overall mood remains surprisingly steady: the Presidency is widely credited with avoiding the traditional early-COP agenda fight and managing the process with a mix of diplomacy and strategic containment—most notably by shifting the four most contentious items (Article 9.1, UTMs, NDC and BTR synthesis reports) into side consultations last week.
Following the publication of a new summary note last night and closed-door talks in the morning, the Presidency Consultations—now labelled “Mutirão Mobilization for the Belém package”—resumed today and were framed as an attempt to land a balanced overall outcome for COP30. The Presidency invited Parties to consider the linkages between other key agenda items and the four mutirão issues, acknowledging that without a holistic view of the package, the core political blockages around finance, ambition, and trade cannot be unlocked. While this unique approach initially created some confusion and pushback over changing process mid-stream and blurring “firewalls” between tracks, there was broad—if cautious—willingness to experiment with the mutirão format, on the understanding that all outcomes must respect existing mandates, the Paris architecture, and the principle of “no surprises” at the COP.
On other topics, some movement is emerging on fossil fuels, with more than 40 ministers—from oil exporters to small islands—engaging the Presidency on phase-out language. President Lula’s opening-day warning that “the era of fossil fuels must come to an end” continues to hang over the talks, and most expect some reference to fossil fuels in the final political declaration, even though there is no formal agenda item on the issue.
President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, speaking during the opening ceremony on 10 November 2025.
Between this single tree growing inside and the almost daily tropical rainstorms battering the venue—sometimes sending water into negotiation rooms and drowning out delegates’ interventions under sounds of roaring thunder—it’s hard to forget we’re indeed in the Amazon!
The Global Goal on Adaptation remains high on the agenda with several key areas being of main focus: first, the list of 100 indicators prepared by experts has sparked concern about whether there are too few (or still too many), as well as whether it will create burdens on developing countries over data collection requirements and potentially open the door to being evaluated for funding approvals based on their performance. Second, there are growing calls to triple adaptation finance funding, and ensure that USD 150 billion per year (half of the new collective quantified goal on climate finance, agreed last year in Baku) is earmarked for adaptation. Yet discussions remain constructive, with ideas circulating for a roadmap toward implementation and a possible endpoint at COP32. If successful, this could help untangle some of the linked tensions across mitigation, finance, NDCs, and the GST.
Technical bodies wrapped up over the weekend, including the SBs and work on science within the UNFCCC, though not without friction. Delegates warned of the growing risk to global observation systems, persistent disagreements over how to characterise the IPCC’s role, and unusually strong pushback against scientific inputs in several rooms. And with the ongoing absence of the US delegation, one academic quipped, “It’s a great relief that no US delegate has walked into these halls,” hinting at fears that a Trump-era presence could further complicate matters. At the same time, several negotiators admitted they are “missing an old friend” and hope “they” return to the process again soon.
Day Eight, Tuesday 18 November 2025
by Matthew Winkler
Pope Leo, warned that “creation is crying out in floods, droughts, storms and relentless heat.” Pope Leo expressed concern that the natural environment is under threat, citing examples of extreme weather conditions such as floods, droughts, storms and extreme heat. Those in Belém have been feeling the effects of the climate frontlines first hand as day 8 was marked by biblical weather, thunder, torrential rain, and waterfalls flooding the Pacific Island pavilion, as wind lashed tents and toppled fences.
With the conference approaching its conclusion, COP President Do Lago has outlined plans for two deals: the first, a comprehensive decision encompassing trade, finance and the NDCs, is scheduled for Wednesday, when President Lula is expected to arrive; and the second deal, which could include a roadmap for fossil fuels, is scheduled for completion on Friday. The roadmap for the use of fossil fuels has gained traction, with 62 countries now signed up to it. Panama’s climate envoy articulated the prevailing sentiment of frustration, highlighting the detrimental impact of fossil fuel subsidies, which he described as either immediate or gradual killers.
It is unclear whether Do Lago’s strategy of incorporating 14 major items into a single package will result in a positive outcome or lead to complications at the final stage. As China explicitly stated: “We see two possible paths for this process. One such example is Prince Pedro, who is celebrated for adhering to the established process and ensuring inclusivity. The other is like Caesar, a process that collapses because it is seen as overstepping or creating unwanted linkages”. Behind the scenes, negotiators continued working until midnight. Full access to negotiations has been extremely limited.
On the eighth day, the process was marked by division and tension, with negotiators showing signs of fatigue. The Presidency was under pressure to reach an agreement that could be a significant achievement for COP30, or potentially a major setback.
Day Nine, Wednesday 19 November 2025
by Matthew Winkler
Day 9 opened with anticipation, and exhaustion, across the Belém venue. After a period of consultation that lasted throughout the night, the Brazilian Presidency continued to work on the Belém Action Package, a large bundle of measures that is intended to be announced today when President Lula returns. Lula’s unusually hands-on involvement in specific negotiations is reshaping the dynamics of the negotiations; observers have remarked that it is rare to see a Head of State personally intervene in this way. The Presidency is aiming to publish a revised package, which will be adopted by a Plenary, though rumours are circulating that some parties may attempt to obstruct consensus.
Much of the process remains confidential, causing concern among smaller delegations who are anxious about being excluded as bilateral meetings increase, resulting in observers being less informed. Notwithstanding the aforementioned, the Presidency’s management continues to receive commendation. The process is demonstrating greater resilience than Baku, even under considerable strain.
A rumour has surfaced this morning suggesting the emergence of a clean GGA text, though this information remains unconfirmed. Negotiators appear to be aligning on a target of USD 120 billion per year for adaptation by 2035, which is roughly in line with the objective of tripling adaptation finance. Concerns persist over data burdens on developing countries and the risk that indicators could gatekeep funding, or as Ed King dryly notes, “1,000 GGA indicators will mean zilch if there’s no cash attached.”
Protesters call for a pathway to fossil fuel phase out.
Article 6 delivered an unexpected midnight breakthrough after rounds of huddles, producing what observers have described as “beautifully balanced” draft texts. Despite attempts to weaken the references to “best available science” and robust integrity standards, the momentum behind this initiative remains strong, with the completion date now set for next year. Meanwhile, eighty-three countries have joined calls to transition away from fossil fuels, though collectively representing only 7% of global fossil fuel production. Lula’s opening line, that “the era of fossil fuels must come to an end”, still frames much of the debate, and many expect some form of fossil-fuel language in the final political declaration.
Details of COP31 have also been finalised: Antalya will host the event in November 2026, in a rare hybrid arrangement in which Australia will manage the content and logistics.
Helder Barbalho, Governor of Pará speaks to the media.
Day 9 was marked by political intensity behind closed doors, cautious optimism regarding Article 6 and fragile progress on adaptation. Meanwhile, the Presidency was racing against time to transform an unwieldy set of issues into a coherent outcome. With Lula now directly overseeing parts of the negotiations, the COP is both disciplined and dangerously stretched, held together by the slenderest threads of trust and the presidency’s assurance that the mutirão will succeed.
Day Ten, Thursday 20 November 2025
by Matthew Winkler
Day 10 began in confusion. Communication between the Presidency and the delegates had broken down; the plenary session had not appeared on the schedule; and the secretariat seemed as uncertain as everyone else about what would happen next. Although a morning letter mentioned a meeting, the only official negotiation scheduled is on Article 6, with draft papers published early that morning.
The mutirão text is the cornerstone, but what is notable is what is missing. The coalition of countries calling for a transition away from fossil fuels isn’t reflected. There is no finance text. The debate around USD 120 billion for adaptation has disappeared. Loss and damage receives little attention. Overall, the package feels tepid, and there are serious doubts about whether it will be approved.
The GGA text has received a mixed response and currently includes around 60 indicators. However, it may be a case of too many overlapping programmes with redundancy, rather than a coherent vision. The indicators themselves are a shadow of their former selves: they have no clear descriptions or substance, despite months of expert work. Developing countries remain concerned that the indicators are not aligned with science and could be used to restrict access to finance.
However, what will be remembered from Day 10 is the fire: the day COP30 burned. Shortly after 2 pm local time, flames erupted in the Blue Zone’s African pavilion area. Attendees fled through the corridors amid shouts of ‘Fire!’, but there was no alarm or sprinkler system. It was volunteer staff who were first to respond to the fire. The fire was brought under control within six minutes and thirteen people were treated for smoke inhalation. With negotiations already behind schedule, the Presidency’s hopes of finishing on time tomorrow have likely turned to ash.
COP30 attendees wait outside, as the venue burns.
Day Eleven, Friday 21 November 2025
by Matthew Winkler
Day 11 opened with the Presidency’s gamble laid bare. Overnight, Brazil had presented what appeared to be a take-it-or-leave-it set of proposals: three documents for the 194 countries to consider. After two weeks of biblical weather, riots, flooding and a fire that shut down the Blue Zone, this was it. Negotiations remained restricted, with access cut off and the plenary session postponed until Saturday following the previous day’s evacuation.
The Mutirão text was immediately criticised by all parties. The EU was blunt: ‘Under no circumstances are we going to accept this. Nothing that is remotely close to anything on the table”. Their negotiator listed the omissions: no science, no Global Stocktake and no transition away from fossil fuels. They warned that there was a “real possibility that we will not reach an agreement”. AILAC echoed this sentiment, describing the package as ‘unambitious and detached from reality’.
However, the divisions run deeper than the traditional North–South fault lines. The Arab Group pushed back hard, warning that any targeting of their energy industry was ‘off the table’ and that they would ‘not trade our sovereignty for adaptation finance’. They noted that the CBAM would decrease the income of developing countries by billions while reducing emissions by just 0.01%. The African Group rejected the conditions outright, stating: ‘Africa only emits less than 4%, yet our forests absorb twice the emissions of the developed world. We cannot continue to accept conditions at our own expense”.
Perhaps the sharpest intervention came from the Like-Minded Developing Countries, who invoked decades of broken promises: ‘What happened to Kyoto? What happened to Rio? Developed countries committed to providing finance. Did it materialise? No, it did not”. Developing countries demanded that developed nations go net negative to give them space to grow.
At least 36 countries signed a letter stating that they ‘cannot support an outcome that does not include a roadmap for implementing a just, orderly and equitable transition away from fossil fuels’. The Coalition of Rainforest Nations asked pointedly: ‘We’re here in the middle of the rainforest. How can we leave without making a strong push for deforestation to be revisited?’ In truth, the push for fossil fuel and deforestation roadmaps have become conflated, which may result in neither being delivered.
With cruise ships scheduled to depart on Saturday morning and negotiations still at a standstill, the question hanging over Belém was whether Brazil’s high-pressure strategy had worn countries down into acceptance or primed the plenary for an explosion.
This series of blog posts was originally published on the CERI (Centre for International Studies) website.
Photo credits: Sarah Tegas, Sarah Thompson