PLAN - Prevision-making at the Local level: Anticipating what’s Next. A socio-cognitive approach to policymaking under uncertainty

Le projet

Institut Convergences MigrationsThe Coronavirus outbreak was neither anticipated by stakeholders nor predicted by professional forecasters. Geopolitical uncertainty at the supranational and national levels currently places sub-national stakeholders in an unseen situation. How do local policymakers see the future of international mobility in a post-pandemic world?
The PLAN project seizes this historical moment to advance the understanding of forecasting and decision-making under uncertainty. To bring objective evidence to the study of future-oriented cognition, PLAN’s interdisciplinary, longitudinal, and cost-effective empirical design combines: (1) official statistical sources on local representatives; (2) high-quality survey data informing policy makers’ and general populations’ prediction of future migratory trends and socio-political evaluation; and (3) high-quality administrative sources.

The first transnational data collection has been conducted early 2021. It allowed to collect more than 3,120 observations from France and the UK. The ex post comparisons of research participants’ predictions (collected at T0) with objective administrative data (accessed at T+1) sheds new light on forecasting. This data collection further provides a unique source of empirical evidence regarding the perception of the implications of the pandemic and Brexit, in France and in the UK.

Research team

Virginie Guiraudon, CNRS Director of Research at the Centre for European Studies and Comparative Politics (CEE) and affiliated researcher at the LIEPP at Sciences Po, Paris. Project supervisor and co-principal investigator.

Jacqueline Broadhead, director of the Global Exchange on Migration and diversity (GEM) at the Centre on Migration, Policy and Society (COMPAS) at the University of Oxford. Co-principal investigator.

Ilka Vari-Lavoisier, Research Affiliate at the School of Anthropology and Museum of Ethnography and Associate Member of the Sociology Department at Oxford University. Principal researcher.

To know more

This project is funded by the Institut Convergences Migrations.

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