Designing climate cooperation in a fractured world

By Marc Ringel, Chairholder at the European Chair for Sustainable Development and Climate Transition, Sciences Po and Sarah Thompson, PhD Candidate, Université libre de Bruxelles and Senior Research Programme Manager, European Chair for Sustainable Development and Climate Transition, Sciences Po

The recent report on strategic foresight of the European Union underscores the need for the EU to increase its concept of resilience in an ever more turbulent and changing world. A world characterised by unstable political settings, economic powerplays and the potential weaponisation of key areas that so far had been considered the backbone of the clean transition: clean energy sources, critical resources, and technological cooperation within a multilateral framework that ensured fair competition. Given the scale and importance of these shifts, the strategic foresight report argues that a return to the previous status quo seems highly unlikely.

With the COP30 negotiations in Belém in taking up speed, this outlook does not bode well. It raises the question: what and how much can be achieved to strengthen global climate governance. Advancing this framework is key for the EU in several ways: first, the findings of the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) confirm that climate change is happening at an increasing speed, notably in Europe. Second, active climate policies, started off under the European Green Deal and now pursued under the Clean Industrial Deal, are key to increasing the EU’s resilience and security by increasing competitiveness and advancing the phase-out of imported fossil fuels. 

How then can the EU help advance the global climate talks? Insights from the Climate Survey – a large-scale poll run by the European Investment Bank in 38 countries across the EU and around the globe – offer several avenues for building consensus between the world’s three major blocs: the EU, the US and China. While finding a consensus at the national level will be increasingly difficult, regional and local cooperation emerges as a promising way forward. 

A first insight – often the biggest challenge for climate action – is the survey feedback that acknowledging climate change does not necessarily entail support for dedicated policy measures. To advance some figures: 94% of Chinese respondents agree that climate change impacts their daily lives. This is mirrored by 77% of Europeans and 71% of US respondents. In terms of policies to combat global warming, 92% of Chinese and 71% of European and 71% of US respondents would in principle support an abstract tax to fight climate change, albeit at a low tax rate. The picture changes, when measures imply changing individual lifestyles: Only 50% of Chinese, 34% of European and 33% of American respondents supported banning highly carbon emitting cars (2020/2021).  

If global climate policies are to be effective, they need to factor in these realities: Policies need to be inclusive and add tangible value beyond fighting global warming. This implies revisiting the spirit of the Paris Agreement, adding a certain flavour of climate realpolitik. The nationally determined contributions depart from the very fact that different countries face diverse realities and will be convinced more easily to act if their action also addresses national or local needs and interests. Again, the Climate Survey provides some feedback on where these options can be found, according to the survey respondents. Overall, while economic concerns prevail, the present format of aligning all countries along the same topic (renewables, energy efficiency, batteries, electric vehicles) seems ever more unlikely. In contrast, the EU could strive to broker flexible partnerships that bring together coalitions of interest rather than achieving overall global support. This aligns fairly closely with the EU thinking on Clean Industrial Partnerships. 

That said, what would be potential fields of cooperations that the EU could broker with its global partners? Turning to the US, the recent agreement to import energy and notably liquified natural gas (LNG) into the EU can be taken as a starting point for investigating further technical cooperation in terms of carbon capture and storage, but also joint strategic interests such as upgrading electricity grids towards stronger electrification and digitalisation in the future. Here the cooperation framework under the lead of the International Energy Agency (IEA) can show multiple pathways and avenues of further cooperation. In terms of reaching out to both the US and China, initiatives at a local level that drive decarbonisation, upgrade infrastructure, and increase living conditions are strongly supported in all jurisdictions, judging by the EIB’s survey. The EU efforts under the Sustainable Energy and Climate Action Plans or the Sustainable Urban Mobility Plans can deliver both frameworks and partnerships that foster bottom-up climate action.

On questions of fairness, the EIB Climate Survey reveals broad agreement that the green transition must be address global social inequalities. A large majority of European (84%), Chinese (93%), and American (76%) respondents believe developed countries have a responsibility to help developing nations shift to carbon-free energy through financing or direct investment. This principle of fairness also extends to questions of financial solidarity: 57% of EU and 58% of American respondents say their countries should contribute more to help vulnerable nations adapt to climate impacts. Yet these views stand in sharp contrast to recent political trends, as wealthy states scale back official development assistance. These tensions were evident at COP29 in Baku, where parties set a new collective quantified goal of US$300 billion per year in climate finance, tripling the previous US$100 billion target. While critics noted that the figure still falls far short of the needs of developing countries, particularly for adaptation and loss and damage, others have argued the outcome was the most achievable compromise given the current geopolitical context.

In this more unstable world, Europe – and perhaps increasingly China – may be redefining what climate leadership looks like. But for the EU, the real test will be pairing ambitious energy and industrial policies with socially just objectives. The EIB Climate Survey shows that Europeans are not only well-informed about climate change, but also broadly supportive of local and international initiatives that combine decarbonisation with improved living conditions and protection from climate risks. The EU’s ability to sustain or advance its climate leadership will depend on translating this public awareness and support into tangible implementation – both at home and abroad.