When digital systems fail: a report by ITU, UNDRR & the Hub

Are we ready for the next solar storms, submarine cable cuts, satellite disruptions, power blackout, and extreme weather to disrupt digital communication networks and potentially trigger a “digital pandemic”? 

While these may sound like science-fiction scenarios, the PSIA Tech & Global Affairs Innovation Hub is co-publishing with the International Telecommunication Union (ITU) and the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR) a new report dedicated to cross-border risks that could take down the digital infrastructures we rely on for our daily lives, on Earth, at sea, and in space. – “When digital systems fail: The hidden risks of our digital world” analyses the fragility of our interconnected digital systems and offers a roadmap furthering international cooperation for preparedness, rapid response, resilience, and stability. 

Presented today in Geneva by Doreen Bogdan-Martin, ITU Secretary-General, and Kamal Kishore, Special Representative of the United Nations Secretary-General for Disaster Risk Reduction and Head of UNDRR, the report is the result of collaboration between the two UN agencies and the Hub, which coordinated, thanks to Jan Verlin (Sciences Po CRISIS Lab), a group of global interdisciplinary experts from 12 countries over the past 6 months.

As our professional and personal lives are increasingly dependent on often invisible digital infrastructure, and as analogue alternatives are either poorly maintained or even sunsetted, this report's first ambition is to provide a clear overview of the risks threatening the integrity of digital systems at an international level. Severe solar storm like the one that grazed our planet in 2012 could disable satellites, disrupt navigation systems, and destabilize energy grids, with recovery times measured in months. Extreme weather events, whose frequency increases with climate change, could overwhelm data centers, leading to mobile service outages, as well as failures in healthcare systems and financial transactions. In the meantime, earthquakes or other natural hazards can sever vital Internet connections, slowing business operations and leaving entire nations offline for weeks.

“Facing systemic risks means looking beyond data and working across disciplines. This report shows how evidence-based policymaking can help us build resilience in an increasingly interconnected world.” Arancha González, Dean of the Paris School of International Affairs at Sciences Po

These “black swan” scenarios and their potential effects on power grids, submarine cables, satellite constellations, and data center networks, are still insufficiently monitored, their consequences are underestimated, and so are their potential cascading effects, one crisis triggering another. Building a shared knowledge base about these very real digital vulnerabilities is a complex but necessary stepping stone to anticipate unexpected incidents, which are bound to happen, and prepare coherent, timely, cross-border response to mitigate damage.

“Resilience must be built into the DNA of the technologies we depend on. This report urges us to consider the systemic nature of risks and rethink how we protect the systems that connect and empower humanity.” Doreen Bogdan-Martin, ITU Secretary-General

Grounded in this evidence-based analysis, illustrated by many historic cases and near-misses, the report, which also received the contributions of a group of 16 PSIA students during the in-person workshop in Sciences Po in April, calls for coordinated action between countries to improve digital resilience, especially for essential services such as telecommunications, healthcare, finance, and emergency response. The group of experts calls on policymakers, the private sector, and civil society to act now to provide against these risks before they compound through global commitment and coordinated action, across nations, as well as public and private stakeholders.
These suggestions articulate around six priorities for safeguarding critical digital infrastructure:

1. Build knowledge: Identify vulnerabilities, map cross-sector dependencies, develop models for potential chain reactions, and maintain analogue skills.
2. Update risk management: Treat non intentional digital disruptions as a core risk by updating legal and disaster risk frameworks and incentives.
3. Consider strengthening international standards: Establish robust fallback systems and conduct joint multi sector scenario planning.
4. Ramp up proactive coordination on critical risks: Proactively coordinate on high impact risks affecting space weather, submarine cables, satellites, and data centres.
5. Strengthen societal resilience: Equip communities and organizations to withstand and recover from digital disruptions by fostering adaptive capacities.
6. Build trust: Build capacity, convene stakeholders, and promote shared awareness and accountability across sectors and borders.

Learn more by reading the full policy brief: When digital systems fail - An expert report on the hidden risks of our digital world (PDF, 1,85 Mo)