[Séminaire d'axe] Frontline to World Disorder: Ukraine, Iran, and the Geopolitical Dilemmas of China and Europe

The international order is not collapsing at a single point. It is fracturing along multiple frontlines simultaneously. This talk takes two of the most consequential: the Russia-Ukraine war, which has shattered the post-Cold War security architecture in Europe, and the Iran nuclear crisis, which has exposed the limits of deterrence, diplomacy, and sanctions as instruments of order in the Middle East. Read together, they reveal something more fundamental: a world in which the rules, institutions, and coalitions that once managed great-power competition are losing their grip, in which both China and Europe are being forced to make choices they have long preferred to defer.

Drawing on field research in Ukraine and Iran, this talk asks what these two frontlines reveal about the changing nature of war, order, and strategic positioning in the twenty-first century. For Europe, Ukraine has accelerated a process of geopolitical awakening, while Iran tests whether that awakening can extend beyond its immediate neighborhood. For China, both conflicts present versions of the same structural dilemma: how to uphold principled positions on sovereignty and non-interference while navigating entanglements with Russia, engagement with Europe, and ties with Tehran. The talk argues that understanding China's and Europe's responses to these crises is essential to grasping the emerging logic of the post-unipolar world.

Speaker

Xiaoyu Lu, Peking University

Xiaoyu Lu is an Assistant Professor of International Relations at Peking University. His research focuses on international conflict, mediation, and the transformation of global order. Drawing on extensive fieldwork in conflict zones, including Ukraine, Syria, Iran, Myanmar, and Israel–Palestine, his work examines how narratives, emotions, and non-Western actors shape contemporary conflict resolution. Dr. Lu received his MSc and DPhil in Politics from the University of Oxford. His publications have appeared in journals such as International Affairs and Studies in Conflict & Terrorism. He is the author of Norms, Storytelling and International Institutions in China: The Imperative to Narrate and is currently working on several projects on global power transitions and the changing nature of war and peace. 

Chair

Matthias Thiemann, Sciences Po, CEE 

*Key theme : Transformation of capitalism