#EuropeanAffairs: The Gulf at a Crossroads

On March 24, 2026, the Sciences Po American Foundation continued its #EuropeanAffairs webinar series with a discussion exploring the Gulf’s current geopolitical crisis, its historical foundations, and the possible trajectories shaping its future. Moderated by Anthony Saracco, the session brought together two leading scholars of Middle East politics: Bernard Haykel, Professor at Princeton University, and Laurence Louër, Associate Professor and Deputy Director for Scientific Affairs at Sciences Po CERI.

The discussion opened with a stark assessment: the Gulf is experiencing profound instability rather than balance. Haykel described a region in “total imbalance,” marked by escalating confrontation between Iran, the United States, and Gulf Arab states. Attacks on energy infrastructure and disruptions to maritime routes, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz, highlight the fragility of the regional order. Iran, facing what Haykel called an existential struggle for regime survival, is attempting to impose costs on its adversaries and the global economy, while Gulf states closely tied to U.S. security architecture remain exposed yet constrained.

This instability is rooted in long-standing rivalries, especially between Iran and Saudi Arabia. Haykel traced this tension to the 1979 Iranian Revolution, whose ideological foundations rejected the Saudi monarchy as a Western-aligned regime lacking religious legitimacy. Despite occasional periods of rapprochement, mutual distrust remains deeply embedded.

Louër emphasized that Gulf monarchies’ external behavior reflects their internal constraints. Despite their wealth, these states have small populations and militaries geared toward defense and regime survival rather than power projection. As a result, they rely on mediation, financial aid, and alliances rather than direct confrontation, helping explain their cautious response to current tensions.

Historically, Gulf states have also followed a distinct trajectory compared to other Middle Eastern countries. Louër highlighted their enduring partnerships with external powers, particularly the United Kingdom and later the United States, which became central to their security since their independence. This reliance on external guarantors remains a defining feature of the region’s political order.

Religion, once a cornerstone of political legitimacy particularly in Saudi Arabia, has undergone notable transformation. Louër and Haykel both pointed to a shift toward more “moderate” forms of Islam and a growing emphasis on performance-based legitimacy. In Saudi Arabia, this shift is closely associated with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s reforms, which prioritize economic modernization, social liberalization, and national identity over strict religious authority. Rising female labor participation and efforts to attract foreign investment reflect this broader reorientation. Meanwhile, in Iran, the regime continues to rely heavily on religious ideology, though both speakers noted signs of popular disillusionment and a gradual shift toward secular and nationalist sentiments among the population.

Economic transformation emerged as another central theme. Gulf states are actively pursuing diversification strategies to reduce dependence on hydrocarbons, driven by the long-term risk that oil could become a “stranded asset.” However, Louër stressed that labor market reform and “workforce nationalization” are equally critical challenges. Gulf economies have long depended on expatriate labor, creating segmented labor markets in which nationals dominate the public sector while foreigners fill private-sector roles. As public employment can no longer absorb growing national populations, governments are attempting to restructure labor systems, with significant implications for governance, social contracts, and economic policy.

Looking ahead, Haykel outlined competing visions for the future regional order. On one side is a status quo-oriented bloc, led by Saudi Arabia and the UAE, that seeks stability, economic integration, and development, akin to a Middle Eastern version of the European Union. On the other is a “revisionist” axis, including Iran and elements within Israel, each pursuing fundamentally different and often incompatible visions of regional dominance. The United States remains the decisive key external actor, with unmatched military capabilities, while China plays a growing economic role but remains reluctant to assume security responsibilities. Russia, meanwhile, stands to benefit economically from disruptions to Gulf energy supplies.

The resilience of Gulf political systems, Louër argued, will depend heavily on the trajectory of the current conflict. Prolonged instability or low-intensity conflict could undermine the region’s economic model, which relies on security, openness, and attractiveness to investors, tourists, and skilled expatriates. Renewed sectarian tensions, particularly involving Shia communities, could further destabilize domestic politics, especially if relations with Iran deteriorate further.

The discussion also addressed broader geopolitical implications. Both speakers emphasized that Europe is especially exposed to instability in the Gulf, given its reliance on external energy supplies and its constrained military capacity. The crisis both reveals Europe’s dependence on the United States and heightens the urgency for the continent to strengthen its strategic autonomy.

In conclusion, both Haykel and Louër underscored that the Gulf is entering a period of profound uncertainty. Whether the region moves toward renewed stability, prolonged confrontation, or systemic transformation will depend on a complex interplay of internal reforms, regional rivalries, and external power dynamics. What remains clear is that the Gulf’s trajectory will have far-reaching consequences- not only for the Middle East, but for the global economy and international order as a whole.

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