#EuropeanAffairs: Global Value Chains and Strategic Industry Security

On Wednesday, January 28th, the Sciences Po American Foundation opened its 2026 #EuropeanAffairs webinar series with a timely discussion on global value chains and their growing relevance for economic stability, security, and geopolitics. Moderated by Anthony Saracco, Head of M&A North America at Commerzbank, the conversation brought together two leading experts: Isabelle Mejean, Professor of Economics at Sciences Po, and Leslie Palti-Guzman, founder of Energy Vista and a recognized authority on global energy markets, maritime trade, and geoeconomics.

The discussion centered on a core tension shaping today’s global economy: the efficiency gains created by deeply interconnected value chains versus the vulnerabilities those same networks generate when disrupted by shocks, whether natural, political, or military.

Mejean challenged the idea that global value chains are truly “global,” noting that production is mostly regional- European firms source mainly within Europe, and U.S. production is concentrated in North America; but this structure does not ensure resilience. Firms often rely on at least one small yet critical input sourced from distant, highly concentrated suppliers, making them vulnerable to disruption. She illustrated this with the 2011 Tohoku earthquake in Japan, which forced a Peugeot factory in France to stop production because a minor sensor from an affected Japanese supplier became unavailable, showing how shocks can cascade across continents through seemingly marginal choke points.

Palti-Guzman examined global trade and infrastructure through energy and maritime logistics, highlighting how disruptions in 2024 to both the drought-stricken Panama Canal and the security-threatened Red Sea-Suez route forced widespread rerouting of shipping and exposed the fragility of trade systems reliant on a few strategic chokepoints. In energy markets, U.S. oil and LNG exports shifted toward Europe while Qatari gas flowed more to Asia, revealing that the United States, despite being the largest oil and gas exporter, remains dependent on maritime routes it does not fully control, and that actors less bound by Western shipping insurance and regulations were often better able to operate in contested waters.

Both speakers stressed that despite repeated crises, from the global financial crisis and COVID-19 to trade wars and geopolitical conflict, the basic structure of global value chains has remained remarkably stable. Trade data shows little fundamental change in the industry since the late 2000s. Even the pandemic did not trigger a lasting reorganization of production networks, reflecting the high costs and long timelines required to alter supply chains. What has shifted instead is the political context: trade policy is increasingly wielded as a geopolitical tool- with tariffs, export controls, and restrictions driven by strategic considerations rather than economic efficiency undermining assumptions of a stable, rules-based multilateral system.

A major concern raised during the discussion was the difficulty of assessing risk in complex value chains. Firms typically understand their direct suppliers, but they often lack visibility into indirect dependencies further upstream. Governments face similar blind spots: Mejean stressed the need for better data and mapping of supply chain choke points, noting that vulnerabilities often remain hidden until a crisis occurs.

Palti-Guzman identified maritime shipping as a key vulnerability, noting that although over 80% of global trade moves by sea, the United States operates very few internationally trading vessels (compared to China’s thousands) and relies heavily on foreign-flagged tankers for LNG exports. In response, Washington has launched a bipartisan effort to rebuild shipbuilding and maritime capacity, often in partnership with allied firms in South Korea and Europe.

Technology has become both a remedy and a risk: while satellite imagery, vessel tracking, and data analytics have increased transparency in global trade and energy flows, they have also driven evasion tactics such as disabled trackers and the rise of uninsured “shadow fleets.” Palti-Guzman further noted that attacks on undersea data and power cables, such as those in the Baltic Sea, show how commercial infrastructure is increasingly targeted in hybrid conflict, blurring the lines between economic and security threats.

The discussion concluded with reflections on resilience and policy responses. Both speakers emphasized diversification over full reshoring. Complete self-sufficiency is neither feasible nor desirable, but reducing overconcentration in suppliers, routes, technologies, and partners has become essential.

Watch the webinar