When the Rains Fail: Drought and Fertility Intentions in Kenya

CRIS SCIENTIFIC SEMINAR 2025-2026

TALK WITH ANKIT SIKARWAR (SCIENCES PO - CRIS)

Climate change has increased the frequency, intensity, and uncertainty of extreme environmental events across many parts of the world. Among these, drought represents one of the most persistent climate risks, with both immediate and long term consequences for human societies, ecosystems, and livestock systems. These impacts are often more severe in regions with lower levels of socioeconomic development and strong dependence on agriculture and other climate sensitive primary activities.

While the economic and environmental consequences of drought are widely recognized, its connections with demographic processes, particularly fertility intentions, remain far less understood. At the same time, an important methodological challenge persists: environmental risks such as drought are often measured using broad indicators that may overlook how climate variability is experienced across time and local livelihoods.

Focusing on Kenya, a country that has experienced some of the most severe drought episodes in recent years, this study combines high resolution spatial drought data with nationally representative Demographic and Health Survey data to examine how women’s future fertility intentions are associated with drought exposure. The study also investigates how different ways of defining and measuring drought shape the observed relationships between environmental stress and demographic outcomes.

This work is part of a collaborative research project with Prof. Kathryn Grace.

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