[Séminaire d'axe] Enough of what? Changes in support for Chega between 2019 and 2025

In the 2025 Portuguese general elections, the populist radical-right party Chega attained 22.8 per cent of the vote and became the second biggest in the Assembly of the Republic. Drawing on contextual analysis, we examine Chega’s electoral consolidation within the Portuguese party system. We analyse the relationship between changes in local living conditions that can foster social grievances with an objective character and Chega’s electoral mobilization at the national legislative elections. Changes in socio-economic variables are associated with variation in votes. Notably, decreases in income alongside increases in social benefits, unemployment, crime are associated with larger increases in support for Chega. By contrast, changes in the share of the foreign population and net migration are not linked with changes in support. These results dispute the argument that Chega’s support is a direct consequence of demographic change at the local level in Portugal, even though the rise of the party happened in a period when immigration numbers increased. Moreover, we show that variations in turnout are strongly associated with changes in the number of votes for Chega, which highlights the relevance of the political discontent model over its rivals. Key results are robust to different specifications. Thus, we highlight the importance of the political discontent model to understand Chega’s emergence and consolidation at the electoral level in a very short period, as well as the as potential implications of this electoral trend on political competition.

Speaker

João Carvalho, Instituto Universitário de Lisboa

Chair

Jan Rovny, Sciences Po, CEE