Informer pour gouverner. Les dynamiques institutionnelles des mondes de la gouvernance macroéconomique (InfoGouv) (2017)

Project leaders : 

Research Team : 


The project brings together sociologists, political scientists and economists. It aims at studying the space of macroeconomic governance as a field of knowledge-production within which information spreads. It adopts an institutionalist perspective and combines both quantitative and qualitative methods to shed light on the concept of credibility and expertise, in the broader context of an interrogation about beliefs. The case of macroeconomics forecasting serves as an entry point, as it both reveals the choices private and public actors previously made, and guide those which will be made afterwards. The project relies on three joint case studies :

- a first describes the world of forecasting by analyzing how different forecasting institutions revise the forecasts they produced – assuming these practices are connected to their position in the channels of information;

- a second study tackles how members of some particular groups (such as the Corps of INSEE in the French case), who are supposed to detain scarce information, move accordingly across the world of economic governance;

- a final study deals with the progressive Europeanization of economic policies, paying specific attention to how economic administrations began to approach each other in the wake of the Great Crash and Brexit. 

Research projet (May 2020)

Presentations: 

  • "Changing One's Mind. Forecasts Revisions as Institutional and Informational Dynamics", présentation à la mini-conférence Politics of the Future, Policies in the Present, Congrès annuel de la Society for the Advancement of Socio-Economics (SASE), 24 juin 2018, Kyoto.
  •  "Changing One's Mind. Forecasts Revisions as Institutional and Informational Dynamics" présentation dans le cadre du colloque Futures Past. Economic Forecasting in the 20th and 21st Century, 11 octobre 2018, Hambourg.
  • "La sagesse conventionnelle. La prévision économique et ses institutions", présentation  dans le cadre du séminaire "Politiques économiques et financières en régime de crise" organisé par l'ANR Disorbercy, 17 janvier 2019, Paris.
  • "The Temporal Order of Expectations. Short- and Long-Term Forecasts Around the Great Recession", présentation dans le cadre du Workshop "Crisis of Expectations - Expectations of Crisis" les 10 et 11 avril 2019 au Max-Planck Institut für Gesellschaftsforschung de Cologne.
  • "The Temporal Order of Expectations. Short- and Long-Term Forecasts Around the Great Recession", présentation dans le cadre du congrès de la Society for the Social Studies of Science du 4 au 7 septembre 2019.

Publications

Olivier PILMIS, The Dynamics of Expectations: A Sequential Perspective on Macroeconomic Forecasting Future Past. Economic Forecasting in the 20th and 21st Century edited by Ulrich FRITSCHE, Roman KÖSTER and Laetitia LENEL. Peter Lang International Academic Publishers, 163-89, March 2020.

Olivier PILMIS, The Dynamics of Expectations. A Look on Forecasting as a Sequence LIEPP Working Paper n°91, septembre 2019