Resources

Below are useful references related to the different categories of the blog. The list includes publications and databases by international financial institutions, seminal academic papers, as well as more recent discussion papers. This library will be regularly updated to include new contributions.

Debt Levels and Structure

Several institutions maintain databases related to sovereign debt, with differences in terms of coverage, granularity, or frequency. To better understand those differences before diving into the different data sources, you can read the IMF’s Guide to Sovereign Debt Data (2019).

IMF databases

Datasets of the IMF Datamapper
- International Financial Statistics
  - “Government Finance” category
  - Quarterly data, mostly starting in 1990
- World Economic Outlook
  - Updated twice a year
  - General statistics such as fiscal balance and government debt
- Fiscal Monitor
  - Updated twice a year
  - In-depth analysis of public finances
- Global Debt Database
  - Total gross debt of private and public non-financial sector
  - 1950-present, 190 countries
- Public Finances in Modern History
  - 1800-2011, 55 countries

World Bank databases

Quarterly Public Sector Debt Statistics
- Quarterly data, relatively recent as it mostly starts in 2009
- Breakdown by currency, instrument type, creditors
International Debt Statistics
- Includes a breakdown by creditor type
Macro Povery Outlook
- Updated twice a year

OECD databases

General Government Debt Data
Central Government Debt Statistics
- Last updated in 2013

Institute of International Finance

Global Debt Monitor
- Weekly updates, thematic reports
- Some reports are publicly available

Bank of England and Bank of Canada

BoC-BoE Sovereign Default Database
- Yearly updates with technical notes

Joint databases

Joint External Debt Hub
- Co-run by the BIS, the IMF, the OECD and the World-Bank
- External public and private debt statistics

Historical perspectives

Historical Public Debt Database, IMF
Sovereign Bonds since Waterloo, Meyer, Reinhart, Trebesch, NBER, 2019
Carmen Reinhart, Chief Economist at the World Bank, maintains several databases on her website related notably to the dates of crises or debt-to-GDP ratios
Original Sin: The Pain, the Mystery, and the Road to Redemption, Eichengreen, Hausmann, Panizza, 2002
Quels sont les facteurs de la hausse des dettes publiques en zone euro de 1999 à 2019 ?, Aldama, 2021

Debt sustainability analysis

Basics:
- The Debt Sustainability Framework for Low-Income Countries, IMF, last updated 2018
- Debt Sustainability Analysis for Market-Access Countries, IMF, last updated 2021
- Review of The Debt Sustainability Framework For Market Access Countries, IMF, 2021
Discussion Papers
- A Reconsideration of Fiscal Policy in the Era of Low Interest Rates, Furman and Summers, Brookings, 2020
- Redesigning the EU Fiscal Rules: From Rules to Standards, Blanchard, Leandro and Zettelmeyer, 2020
- Fiscal Resiliency in a Deeply Uncertain World: the Role of Semiautonomous Discretion, Orszag, Rubin, Stiglitz, PIIE, 2021
- Public Debt and r – g at Risk, Lian, Presbitero, Wiriadinata, IMF, 2020
- What is a Sustainable Public Debt?, D’Erasmo, Mendoza, Zhang, NBER, 2015

Creditor landscape

Tracking Global Demand for Advanced Economy Sovereign Debt, Arslanalp and Tsuda, IMF, 2012
Tracking Global Demand for Emerging Market Sovereign Debt, Arslanalp and Tsuda, IMF, 2014
Macroeconomic Developments and Prospects in Low-Income Developing Countries, IMF, 2018 (e.g. box 6 and table 4)

Transparency

Debt Transparency: Debt Reporting Heat Map, World Bank, 2020
G20 notes on Strengthening Public Debt Transparency, IMF and World Bank, 2018
China’s Overseas Lending, Horn, Reinhart, Trebesch, NBER, 2019

Restructuring

Restructuring process

How to Restructure Sovereign Debt: Lessons from Four Decades, Buchheit, Chabert, DeLong and Zettelmeyer, PIIE, 2019
A New Approach to Sovereign Debt Restructuring, Krueger, IMF, 2002
The International Architecture for Resolving Sovereign Debt Involving Private-Sector Creditors—Recent Developments, Challenges, And Reform Options, IMF, 2020
Sovereign Debt Restructuring: the Centrality of the IMF’s Role, Hagan, PIIE, 2020
The macroeconomic effects of official debt restructuring: evidence from the Paris Club, Cheng, Diaz-Cassou and Erce, Oxford Economic Papers, 2019

CACs

Count the Limbs: Designing Robust Aggregation Clauses in Sovereign Bonds, Gelpern, Heller and Setser, Georgetown University Law Center, 2015
Restructuring Sovereign Bonds: Holdouts, Haircuts and the Effectiveness of CACs, Fang, Schumacher, Trebesch, ECB, 2020

Defaults

Debt Defaults and Lessons from a Decade of Crises, Sturzenegger and Zettelmeyer, MIT Press 2007
Empirical Research on Sovereign Debt and Default, Tomz and Wright, Annual Review of Economics, 2013

Debt relief

Debt Relief Under the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) Initiative, IMF
Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPCs) – Documents, IMF
Borrowing Costs After Debt Relief, Lang, Mihalyi and Presbitero, 2020

Over the past decades, the Paris Club has played a central role in the international financial architecture, overseeing 472 agreements for an overall USD 589bn of debt treated (as of January 2021). The website of the club provides reports and data related to the process and the work achieved so far.