Exploring the Authoritarian Trap in the MENA: The Cases of Tunisia and Egypt

Le LABSEM du CERI 2025 

Variations autoritaires / Authoritarian Variations

Speakers: 
Nadia Marzouki, Sciences Po Paris, CERI
Hamza Meddeb, Carnegie Middle East Center

Following the wave of Arab uprisings, both Tunisia and Egypt have experienced a restoration of authoritarianism. In Egypt, this shift occurred in 2013 with Sisi's coup, while in Tunisia, Kais Saied's power grab in July 2021 effectively ended a decade of democratization. In both instances, new strongmen have failed to fulfill their promises to restore law, order, and prosperity. A return to the pre-2011 status quo has proven impossible. The regimes in Tunisia and Egypt have not succeeded in re-establishing the authoritarian bargain—where society consented to repression in exchange for economic stability—that characterized state-society relations before 2011. More than a decade later, both regimes find themselves trapped in what we term an “authoritarian trap,” as economic crises deepen, debt distress intensifies, and populist leaders become increasingly disconnected from their citizens.

While much of the literature has focused on the perceived failure of the Arab uprisings of 2011, the breakdown of democracy following the coups in Tunisia and Egypt, or the rise of populism in the region, comparatively little attention has been paid to the transformation of politics during the period of authoritarian restoration. We aim to shift the focus to how renewed authoritarianism in Tunisia and Egypt is on the verge of constant failure. None of the structural inadequacies revealed by the uprisings have been addressed by authoritarian regimes. These regimes have struggled to tackle economic and financial crises, address socio-economic grievances, or adapt to successive shocks like the COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine. These crises have highlighted the unsustainability of the region’s political and economic orders. In Tunisia and Egypt, the resulting political configurations showcase regimes that heavily rely on external assistance, are focused on mere survival, and remain extremely fragile despite their repressive measures.

The authoritarian trap manifests in four key ways:
1. Limited Bargaining Leverage: Regimes are constrained by acute economic crises and lack fiscal maneuverability, forcing them to focus solely on short-term survival.
2. Fragmentation of Social Coalitions: They have been unable or unwilling to build broad constituencies, increasingly relying on military and security apparatuses to dominate politics and the economy.
3. Ideological Vacuum and Emotional Politics: The collapse of major ideologies, including political Islam, has deepened socio-political fragmentation, leaving an ideological void. This raises questions about the future of post-Islamism. Additionally, the rise of digital authoritarianism has further fragmented the social landscape, extending repression into the digital sphere.
4. Lastly, these regimes must navigate a regional and international context marked by unprecedented uncertainty and ongoing realignments among major players in the MENA region, such as Iran, Algeria, and Saudi Arabia.

Our presentation will explore these four aspects of the authoritarian trap, and situate our discussion within broader debates on authoritarian resilience, democratic breakdown, and the recent reconfiguration of politics in the MENA region.