{"id":2610,"date":"2017-02-27T18:00:46","date_gmt":"2017-02-27T16:00:46","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.sciencespo.fr\/research\/cogito\/home\/les-vrais-enjeux\/"},"modified":"2019-04-11T14:01:37","modified_gmt":"2019-04-11T12:01:37","slug":"the-real-issues","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.sciencespo.fr\/research\/cogito\/home\/the-real-issues\/?lang=en","title":{"rendered":"The \u201creal\u201d issues"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Understanding votes is also about knowing the topics that mobilize voters and their influence on the ballot.<\/p>\n<h3>Old chestnuts and new issues<b> <\/b><\/h3>\n<p>First, there is the issue of assessing what voters \u2013 taken as a whole and separated by political affiliation \u2013 consider a priority. Such an assessment enables going beyond preconceived notions. Thus, regardless of respondents\u2019 political leanings, there is little difference among them regarding the issues they consider to be priorities, as demonstrated by the 2017 French election survey (wave 8, November 2016)<\/p>\n<p>&#8212;-<\/p>\n<table width=\"706\">\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td width=\"172\"><\/td>\n<td colspan=\"5\" width=\"534\"><strong><b>For you personally, what is the importance of\u2026<\/b><\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td width=\"172\"><\/td>\n<td width=\"104\">All<\/td>\n<td width=\"114\">Far left<\/td>\n<td width=\"119\">All left<\/td>\n<td width=\"104\">Right and center<\/td>\n<td width=\"93\">Front National<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: left;\" width=\"172\">Unemployment<\/td>\n<td width=\"104\">92%<\/td>\n<td width=\"114\">93%<\/td>\n<td width=\"119\">94%<\/td>\n<td width=\"104\">93%<\/td>\n<td width=\"93\">91%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td width=\"172\">Terrorism<\/td>\n<td width=\"104\">89%<\/td>\n<td width=\"114\">73%<\/td>\n<td width=\"119\">83%<\/td>\n<td width=\"104\">93%<\/td>\n<td width=\"93\">95%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td width=\"172\">Purchasing power<\/td>\n<td width=\"104\">88%<\/td>\n<td width=\"114\">90%<\/td>\n<td width=\"119\">88%<\/td>\n<td width=\"104\">88%<\/td>\n<td width=\"93\">92%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td width=\"172\">Retirement<\/td>\n<td width=\"104\">85%<\/td>\n<td width=\"114\">87%<\/td>\n<td width=\"119\">84%<\/td>\n<td width=\"104\">84%<\/td>\n<td width=\"93\">89%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td width=\"172\">Health insurance<\/td>\n<td width=\"104\">84%<\/td>\n<td width=\"114\">89%<\/td>\n<td width=\"119\">88%<\/td>\n<td width=\"104\">80%<\/td>\n<td width=\"93\">84%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td width=\"172\">Other priority for over 70% of respondents<\/td>\n<td width=\"104\">Crime (80%), business competitiveness (75%), immigration (71%)<\/td>\n<td width=\"114\">Environment (79%)<\/td>\n<td width=\"119\">Environment (77%)<\/td>\n<td width=\"104\">Crime (86%), business competitiveness (86%), immigration (79%)<\/td>\n<td width=\"93\">Crime, immigration (91%)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p>Unsurprisingly, the results show perfect agreement among rightwing and leftwing respondents on combating unemployment, which has been the top priority for decades. However, it is more surprising that leftwing and rightwing voters have the same level of interest in retirement (strong interest) and in the European Union (weak interest). Even more surprisingly, migration is not a leading concern of rightwing respondents: while 79% consider it to be important, it only places 7th in the \u201cranking\u201d of their concerns. A look back at migration is instructive: during a <a href=\"http:\/\/www.cevipof.com\/bpf\/barometre\/vague2\/v2-synthese\/BPF-V2_Perrineau_Evolution-2Vagues.pdf\">2007 pre-election survey, only 23% of rightwing respondents <\/a>considered this issue to be a priority, that is 56% fewer than today. The difference between 2007 and 2017 is just as great among leftwing voters: 9% of leftwing respondents claimed to be \u201cconcerned\u201d about migration in 2007, versus 54% today.<\/p>\n<h3>What must change<\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.flickr.com\/photos\/william-hamon\/1681632614\"><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"wp-image-2193 size-full alignleft\" title=\"Manifestation contre le projet de loi Hortefeux relatif \u00e0 la ma\u00eetrise de l'immigration, \u00e0 l'int\u00e9gration et \u00e0 l'asile. CC BY-NC-ND 2.0\" src=\"http:\/\/www.sciencespo.fr\/research\/cogito\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/02\/1681632614_4ab5582bc5_m.jpg\" alt=\"Manifestation contre le projet de loi Hortefeux relatif \u00e0 la ma\u00eetrise de l'immigration, \u00e0 l'int\u00e9gration et \u00e0 l'asile.\" width=\"240\" height=\"160\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.sciencespo.fr\/research\/cogito\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/02\/1681632614_4ab5582bc5_m.jpg 240w, https:\/\/www.sciencespo.fr\/research\/cogito\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/02\/1681632614_4ab5582bc5_m-219x146.jpg 219w, https:\/\/www.sciencespo.fr\/research\/cogito\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/02\/1681632614_4ab5582bc5_m-50x33.jpg 50w, https:\/\/www.sciencespo.fr\/research\/cogito\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/02\/1681632614_4ab5582bc5_m-113x75.jpg 113w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 240px) 100vw, 240px\" \/><\/a><\/span>In addition to this approach, CEVIPOF produces a<a href=\"http:\/\/www.cevipof.com\/fr\/dynamiquespolitiques\/preferencessectorielles\/\"> Barometer of political priorities<\/a> that sheds light on the nature of these priorities. The idea is to ask respondents about the policies they would like to see change: migration policy, social assistance, defense policy, EU policy, labor market regulation, environmental policy, security, health\/retirement services, education policy, urban policy, societal issues (cultural liberalization, euthanasia, etc.). Of all these subjects, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.cevipof.com\/fr\/dynamiquespolitiques\/preferencessectorielles\/politiquemigratoire\/\">migration policy<\/a> tops the list, with very strong demand for a more restrictive policy. Meanwhile, as in the past, there is little desire for changes in labor market regulationEn compl\u00e9ment de cette approche, le CEVIPOF r\u00e9alise un <a href=\"http:\/\/www.cevipof.com\/fr\/dynamiquespolitiques\/preferencessectorielles\/\">Barom\u00e8tre des priorit\u00e9s politiques<\/a> qui permet de mieux conna\u00eetre la nature de ces priorit\u00e9s. Il s\u2019agit d\u2019interroger les sond\u00e9s sur les politiques qu\u2019ils voudraient voir changer : politique migratoire, aides sociales, politique de d\u00e9fense, politique europ\u00e9enne, r\u00e9gulation du march\u00e9 du travail, politique environnementale, s\u00e9curit\u00e9, prestations sant\u00e9\/retraites, politique \u00e9ducative, politique urbaine, enjeux soci\u00e9taux (lib\u00e9ralisation culturelle, euthanasie etc.). Parmi tous ces sujets, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.cevipof.com\/fr\/dynamiquespolitiques\/preferencessectorielles\/politiquemigratoire\/\">la politique migratoire<\/a> arrive en t\u00eate avec une tr\u00e8s forte demande pour une politique plus restrictive. En revanche, peu de souhaits de changement sont exprim\u00e9s, hier comme aujourd\u2019hui, en mati\u00e8re de <a href=\"http:\/\/www.cevipof.com\/fr\/dynamiquespolitiques\/preferencessectorielles\/regulation\/\">r\u00e9gulation du march\u00e9 du travail<\/a>.<\/p>\n<pre><b>The evolution of priorities since 2014<\/b> \r\nA comparison of answers provided from June 2014 to today to the following question:<a href=\"http:\/\/www.cevipof.com\/fr\/dynamiquespolitiques\/mip\/mip\/\"> What is the most important issue?<\/a><\/pre>\n<h3><b><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"alignright size-medium wp-image-2487\" src=\"https:\/\/www.sciencespo.fr\/research\/cogito\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/02\/640px-Jungle_Books_library-300x225.jpg\" alt=\"By Katja Ulbert - Own work, CC BY-SA 4.0, https:\/\/commons.wikimedia.org\/w\/index.php?curid=47076040\" width=\"300\" height=\"225\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.sciencespo.fr\/research\/cogito\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/02\/640px-Jungle_Books_library-300x225.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.sciencespo.fr\/research\/cogito\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/02\/640px-Jungle_Books_library-195x146.jpg 195w, https:\/\/www.sciencespo.fr\/research\/cogito\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/02\/640px-Jungle_Books_library-50x38.jpg 50w, https:\/\/www.sciencespo.fr\/research\/cogito\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/02\/640px-Jungle_Books_library-100x75.jpg 100w, https:\/\/www.sciencespo.fr\/research\/cogito\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/02\/640px-Jungle_Books_library.jpg 640w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/b>What must be agreed with a candidate to secure vote?<b> <\/b><\/h3>\n<p>Emiliano Grossman and Nicolas Sauger presented the results of a study they conducted as part of a 2012 post-election survey in<a href=\"http:\/\/spire.sciencespo.fr\/hdl:\/2441\/7t638g2jjsquujs9mcdcjek25\/resources\/liepp-pb-07.pdf?_ga=1.151697919.717735122.1484756488\"> Public policies and voter decision making: review of the 2012<\/a> presidential elections.<\/p>\n<p>Their objective was to determine the gap between the opinions of voters and those of the candidates they vote for. They applied this method to four public policy areas: nuclear issues, the role of civil servants, immigration and Europe.<\/p>\n<p>They showed that voters were generally consistent in their selections. They most often voted for candidates whose positions were closest to theirs. But this did not apply to all issues. Nuclear issues were minor, for example. And other issues were more partisan, such as immigration, which was more important for the right. The researchers concluded by highlighting a point that is still relevant in 2017. Centrist candidates were always closer to the positions of their electorate, and extremist candidates were the farthest. However, this distance did not prevent the latter from winning at the ballot box, as voters primarily supported them over a specific issue even if they were not in general agreement with their platform. Sur quoi \u00eatre d\u2019accord avec un candidat pour l\u2019\u00e9lire ?<\/p>\n<h3>New issues begetting new priorities?<\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/commons.wikimedia.org\/wiki\/File:Centrale_nucl%C3%A9aire_du_Bugey_et_champ_de_tournesol.jpg\"><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"alignright wp-image-2194 size-medium\" title=\"Centrale nucl\u00e9aire du Bugey et champ de tournesol. CC BY-SA 2.0\" src=\"https:\/\/www.sciencespo.fr\/research\/cogito\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/02\/800px-Centrale_nucl\u00e9aire_du_Bugey_et_champ_de_tournesol-300x225.jpg\" alt=\"Centrale nucl\u00e9aire du Bugey et champ de tournesol. CC BY-SA 2.0\" width=\"300\" height=\"225\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.sciencespo.fr\/research\/cogito\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/02\/800px-Centrale_nucl\u00e9aire_du_Bugey_et_champ_de_tournesol-300x225.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.sciencespo.fr\/research\/cogito\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/02\/800px-Centrale_nucl\u00e9aire_du_Bugey_et_champ_de_tournesol-768x576.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.sciencespo.fr\/research\/cogito\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/02\/800px-Centrale_nucl\u00e9aire_du_Bugey_et_champ_de_tournesol-195x146.jpg 195w, https:\/\/www.sciencespo.fr\/research\/cogito\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/02\/800px-Centrale_nucl\u00e9aire_du_Bugey_et_champ_de_tournesol-50x38.jpg 50w, https:\/\/www.sciencespo.fr\/research\/cogito\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/02\/800px-Centrale_nucl\u00e9aire_du_Bugey_et_champ_de_tournesol-100x75.jpg 100w, https:\/\/www.sciencespo.fr\/research\/cogito\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/02\/800px-Centrale_nucl\u00e9aire_du_Bugey_et_champ_de_tournesol.jpg 800w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/a><\/span>The current campaign has seen the emergence of previously secondary topics in candidates\u2019 discourse. A good example is the environment. As Daniel Boy points out, this subject had last been discussed during an election debate in 2007, when candidates across the political spectrum had carefully considered Nicolas Hulot\u2019s environmental pact, with some even officially supporting it. Eight years later, in the run-up to COP21, only 14% of respondents in a CEVIPOF survey saw environmental policy as a priority. Today, of the 11 topics listed in the 2017 Enef survey, the environment ranks 8th, with 66% of respondents claiming to be concerned. Candidates\u2019 platforms (including the Front National\u2019s platform, which includes 7 environmental commitments) show that these developments have led to greater consideration of the environment among a growing swath of voters.<\/p>\n<p>This focus on the environment is but one example. Other data indicate that this insight applies to other subjects: education, secularism, foreign policy, etc.<\/p>\n<a class=\"button  has-icon button_left button_size_2\" href=\"http:\/\/www.sciencespo.fr\/research\/cogito\/home\/what-elections-do-to-political-parties\/?lang=en\"    ><span class=\"button_icon\"><i class=\"icon-right-circled\" ><\/i><\/span><span class=\"button_label\">Button<\/span><\/a>\n\n<hr class=\" hr_color\" style=\"margin:0 auto 30px;\"\/>\n\n<p><strong>Main surveys:<br \/>\n<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/cdsp.sciences-po.fr\/fr\/ressources-en-ligne\/ressource\/fr.cdsp.ddi.FES2012\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">French Election Study 2012 \u2013 Post-Election Survey, Centre d&#8217;\u00e9tudes europ\u00e9ennes<\/a><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.sciencespo.fr\/centre-etudes-europeennes\/fr\/node\/12336\">French Election Study 2017 \u2013 Post-Election Survey, Centre d&#8217;\u00e9tudes europ\u00e9ennes<br \/>\n<\/a><strong><br \/>\n<\/strong><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.cevipof.com\/DossCev\/elec2002\/Enjeux\/enjeux.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Les grands enjeux des \u00e9lections et \u00e9l\u00e9ments d&#8217;analyse 2002, Cevipof<\/span><\/a><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.cevipof.com\/PEF\/2007\/PEF2007.htm\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">R\u00e9sultats des enqu\u00eates du Panel \u00e9lectoral fran\u00e7ais et notes d\u2019analyse sur la pr\u00e9sidentielle et les l\u00e9gislatives de 2007, Cevipof<\/span><\/a><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.cevipof.com\/fr\/2012\/notes\/enjeux\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">R\u00e9sultats des enqu\u00eates du Panel \u00e9lectoral fran\u00e7ais et les notes d\u2019analyse sur la pr\u00e9sidentielle et les l\u00e9gislatives de 2012, Cevipof<\/a><\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.enef.fr\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">R\u00e9sultats de l\u2019enqu\u00eate \u00e9lectorale fran\u00e7aise 2017 (en cours) et les notes d\u2019analyse sur les \u00e9lections 2017, Cevipof<\/span><\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Understanding votes is also about knowing the topics that mobilize voters and their influence on the ballot. Old chestnuts and new issues First, there is<span class=\"excerpt-hellip\"> [\u2026]<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":6336,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[124,189,133],"tags":[218,142],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.sciencespo.fr\/research\/cogito\/home\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2610\/?lang=en"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.sciencespo.fr\/research\/cogito\/home\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/?lang=en"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.sciencespo.fr\/research\/cogito\/home\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post\/?lang=en"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.sciencespo.fr\/research\/cogito\/home\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3\/?lang=en"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.sciencespo.fr\/research\/cogito\/home\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments\/?lang=en&post=2610"}],"version-history":[{"count":8,"href":"https:\/\/www.sciencespo.fr\/research\/cogito\/home\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2610\/revisions\/?lang=en"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":6338,"href":"https:\/\/www.sciencespo.fr\/research\/cogito\/home\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2610\/revisions\/6338\/?lang=en"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.sciencespo.fr\/research\/cogito\/home\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/6336\/?lang=en"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.sciencespo.fr\/research\/cogito\/home\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/?lang=en&parent=2610"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.sciencespo.fr\/research\/cogito\/home\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories\/?lang=en&post=2610"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.sciencespo.fr\/research\/cogito\/home\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags\/?lang=en&post=2610"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}