{"id":12336,"date":"2021-11-16T16:00:58","date_gmt":"2021-11-16T14:00:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.sciencespo.fr\/research\/cogito\/home\/?p=12336"},"modified":"2021-12-13T10:04:23","modified_gmt":"2021-12-13T08:04:23","slug":"les-maladies-infectieuses-ne-sont-elles-quinfectieuses","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.sciencespo.fr\/research\/cogito\/home\/les-maladies-infectieuses-ne-sont-elles-quinfectieuses\/","title":{"rendered":"Les maladies infectieuses ne sont-elles qu&rsquo;infectieuses ?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>par Catherine Cavalin, IRISSO &amp; LIEPP, et Paul-Andr\u00e9 Rosental, Centre d&rsquo;histoire<\/p>\n<h4>Port\u00e9e et discussion de la transition \u00e9pid\u00e9miologique<\/h4>\n<p>Depuis un demi-si\u00e8cle, le mod\u00e8le dit de la \u00ab\u00a0transition \u00e9pid\u00e9miologique\u00a0\u00bb guide l\u2019interpr\u00e9tation des donn\u00e9es de mortalit\u00e9. Fond\u00e9 sur les \u00e9volutions de long terme relatives \u00e0 la morbidit\u00e9, il se centre sur le d\u00e9clin de la mortalit\u00e9 li\u00e9e aux maladies infectieuses, et l\u2019essor des maladies chroniques non infectieuses (au premier chef, le cancer\u00a0et les pathologies cardiovasculaires). Dans ce mod\u00e8le, la moindre incidence des maladies ma\u00eetrisables par la vaccination et la m\u00e9dication (notamment par antibiotiques) est contrebalanc\u00e9e par l\u2019accroissement des maladies li\u00e9es aux conditions de vie (<i>e.g.<\/i> pollution, nutrition, s\u00e9dentarit\u00e9). Les deux ph\u00e9nom\u00e8nes sont li\u00e9s\u00a0: la mortalit\u00e9 infectieuse ayant longtemps fauch\u00e9 massivement les enfants et les jeunes, sa diminution est un facteur de vieillissement des populations, qui \u00e0 son tour accro\u00eet la fr\u00e9quence de maladies chroniques associ\u00e9es \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e2ge.<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-12562\" src=\"https:\/\/www.sciencespo.fr\/research\/cogito\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/11\/15-3.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"780\" height=\"390\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.sciencespo.fr\/research\/cogito\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/11\/15-3.jpg 780w, https:\/\/www.sciencespo.fr\/research\/cogito\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/11\/15-3-300x150.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.sciencespo.fr\/research\/cogito\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/11\/15-3-768x384.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.sciencespo.fr\/research\/cogito\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/11\/15-3-260x130.jpg 260w, https:\/\/www.sciencespo.fr\/research\/cogito\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/11\/15-3-50x25.jpg 50w, https:\/\/www.sciencespo.fr\/research\/cogito\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/11\/15-3-150x75.jpg 150w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 780px) 100vw, 780px\" \/>Ce sch\u00e9ma a fait l\u2019objet de nombreuses r\u00e9futations, dues \u00e0 des situations locales (en Afrique du Sud par exemple, o\u00f9 coexistent des infections massives de tuberculose et de VIH-Sida, et des pathologies non infectieuses comme la silicose dans le secteur minier ou les maladies cardiovasculaires) ou \u00e0 des pouss\u00e9es \u00e9pid\u00e9miques temporaires (Ebola, SRAS). Mais la transition \u00e9pid\u00e9miologique est toujours usit\u00e9e pour interpr\u00e9ter les donn\u00e9es \u00e9pid\u00e9miologiques plan\u00e9taires. Jusqu\u2019\u00e0 l\u2019arriv\u00e9e du covid19, aucune maladie infectieuse, connue ou \u00e9mergente, n\u2019avait autant interrog\u00e9 que le nouveau coronavirus l\u2019\u00e9vidence tendancielle postul\u00e9e par ce mod\u00e8le de \u00ab\u00a0transition\u00a0\u00bb.<\/p>\n<p>Le covid19 a d\u00e9finitivement bris\u00e9 la double assurance qui soutenait ce mod\u00e8le. La premi\u00e8re \u00e9tait la confiance dans la capacit\u00e9 \u00e0 mettre rapidement au point des rem\u00e8des ou vaccins en cas de grave pouss\u00e9e infectieuse. La seconde imaginait, sur la base du pr\u00e9c\u00e9dent du VIH-Sida dans les ann\u00e9es 1980, qu\u2019aucune \u00e9mergence d\u2019un nouvel agent infectieux ne prendrait l\u2019ampleur d\u2019une pand\u00e9mie mondiale capable de d\u00e9cimer des populations. Le plan de pr\u00e9paration que l\u2019Organisation mondiale de la sant\u00e9 (OMS) recommanda en 1999 n\u2019invalidait pas cette repr\u00e9sentation<span class=\"footnote_referrer\"><a role=\"button\" tabindex=\"0\" onclick=\"footnote_moveToReference_12336_1('footnote_plugin_reference_12336_1_1');\" onkeypress=\"footnote_moveToReference_12336_1('footnote_plugin_reference_12336_1_1');\" ><sup id=\"footnote_plugin_tooltip_12336_1_1\" class=\"footnote_plugin_tooltip_text\">(1)<\/sup><\/a><span id=\"footnote_plugin_tooltip_text_12336_1_1\" class=\"footnote_tooltip\">World Health Organization,\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/apps.who.int\/iris\/handle\/10665\/66155\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"><i>Influenza pandemic preparedness plan: the role of WHO and guidelines for national and regional planning<\/i><\/a>, \u200e1999.<\/span><\/span><script type=\"text\/javascript\"> jQuery('#footnote_plugin_tooltip_12336_1_1').tooltip({ tip: '#footnote_plugin_tooltip_text_12336_1_1', tipClass: 'footnote_tooltip', effect: 'fade', predelay: 0, fadeInSpeed: 200, delay: 400, fadeOutSpeed: 200, position: 'top right', relative: true, offset: [10, 10], });<\/script>. Certes, apr\u00e8s le coup de semonce de l\u2019\u00e9pid\u00e9mie du sous-type H5N1 de la grippe A (Hong Kong, 1997), il n\u2019excluait pas une pand\u00e9mie de grande ampleur, avec des mesures de cantonnement importantes au cas o\u00f9 la r\u00e9ponse vaccinale durerait plus d\u2019un an. Mais l\u2019anticipation se centrait sur la grippe, pour pr\u00e9venir ses \u00e9pisodes potentiellement les plus s\u00e9v\u00e8res. Et le plan suivait aussi une logique de communication en sant\u00e9 publique, en visant \u00e0 \u00e9viter les paniques qu\u2019avaient suscit\u00e9es de \u00ab fausses alertes \u00bb depuis les ann\u00e9es 1970. Cette vision des choses n\u2019\u00e9tait pas remise en cause par la port\u00e9e limit\u00e9e de l\u2019\u00e9pid\u00e9mie de grippe aviaire H5N1 en 2004 et de H1N1 en 2009.<\/p>\n<div id=\"attachment_12565\" style=\"width: 310px\" class=\"wp-caption alignleft\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.elysee.fr\/emmanuel-macron\/2021\/06\/29\/faire-de-la-france-la-1ere-nation-europeenne-innovante-et-souveraine-en-sante\"><img aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-12565\" decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-12565\" src=\"https:\/\/www.sciencespo.fr\/research\/cogito\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/11\/Screenshot-2021-11-17-at-08-53-02-Presentation-de-la-strategie-innovation-sante-2030-par-le-President-Emmanuel-Macron-300x164.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"164\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.sciencespo.fr\/research\/cogito\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/11\/Screenshot-2021-11-17-at-08-53-02-Presentation-de-la-strategie-innovation-sante-2030-par-le-President-Emmanuel-Macron-300x164.png 300w, https:\/\/www.sciencespo.fr\/research\/cogito\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/11\/Screenshot-2021-11-17-at-08-53-02-Presentation-de-la-strategie-innovation-sante-2030-par-le-President-Emmanuel-Macron-260x142.png 260w, https:\/\/www.sciencespo.fr\/research\/cogito\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/11\/Screenshot-2021-11-17-at-08-53-02-Presentation-de-la-strategie-innovation-sante-2030-par-le-President-Emmanuel-Macron-50x27.png 50w, https:\/\/www.sciencespo.fr\/research\/cogito\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/11\/Screenshot-2021-11-17-at-08-53-02-Presentation-de-la-strategie-innovation-sante-2030-par-le-President-Emmanuel-Macron-137x75.png 137w, https:\/\/www.sciencespo.fr\/research\/cogito\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/11\/Screenshot-2021-11-17-at-08-53-02-Presentation-de-la-strategie-innovation-sante-2030-par-le-President-Emmanuel-Macron.png 558w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/a><p id=\"caption-attachment-12565\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Pr\u00e9sentation de la strat\u00e9gie innovation sant\u00e9 2030 par le Pr\u00e9sident Emmanuel Macron. Juin 2021. Source : \u00c9lys\u00e9e<\/p><\/div>\n<p>Par contraste, apr\u00e8s dix-huit mois de pand\u00e9mie de covid19, l\u2019annonce par Emmanuel Macron de la Strat\u00e9gie Innovation Sant\u00e9 2030<span class=\"footnote_referrer\"><a role=\"button\" tabindex=\"0\" onclick=\"footnote_moveToReference_12336_1('footnote_plugin_reference_12336_1_2');\" onkeypress=\"footnote_moveToReference_12336_1('footnote_plugin_reference_12336_1_2');\" ><sup id=\"footnote_plugin_tooltip_12336_1_2\" class=\"footnote_plugin_tooltip_text\">(2)<\/sup><\/a><span id=\"footnote_plugin_tooltip_text_12336_1_2\" class=\"footnote_tooltip\">voir <a href=\"https:\/\/www.elysee.fr\/emmanuel-macron\/2021\/06\/29\/faire-de-la-france-la-1ere-nation-europeenne-innovante-et-souveraine-en-sante\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Faire de la France la 1\u00e8re nation europ\u00e9enne innovante et souveraine en sant\u00e9.<\/a><\/span><\/span><script type=\"text\/javascript\"> jQuery('#footnote_plugin_tooltip_12336_1_2').tooltip({ tip: '#footnote_plugin_tooltip_text_12336_1_2', tipClass: 'footnote_tooltip', effect: 'fade', predelay: 0, fadeInSpeed: 200, delay: 400, fadeOutSpeed: 200, position: 'top right', relative: true, offset: [10, 10], });<\/script>, dans lequel la lutte contre les maladies infectieuses se voit r\u00e9server 750 millions d\u2019euros (sur un financement in\u00e9dit de 7 milliards d\u2019euros centr\u00e9 sur trois priorit\u00e9s), semble avaliser la remise en cause du mod\u00e8le de transition \u00e9pid\u00e9miologique. La question que nous posons est de savoir si cette r\u00e9orientation correspond aux probl\u00e9matiques de la m\u00e9decine contemporaine telles qu\u2019elles pr\u00e9valaient au moment de l\u2019irruption du covid19, et telles qu\u2019elles ont \u00e9volu\u00e9 depuis. Au passage, nous esp\u00e9rons que notre r\u00e9ponse \u00e9clairera pourquoi deux sp\u00e9cialistes de sciences sociales peuvent avoir, sur cette question, un avis qui n\u2019est pas seulement celui d\u2019observateurs de \u00ab ce qui se passe en m\u00e9decine \u00bb, mais aussi de producteurs travaillant et publiant en collaboration \u00e9troite avec des \u00e9quipes m\u00e9dicales<span class=\"footnote_referrer\"><a role=\"button\" tabindex=\"0\" onclick=\"footnote_moveToReference_12336_1('footnote_plugin_reference_12336_1_3');\" onkeypress=\"footnote_moveToReference_12336_1('footnote_plugin_reference_12336_1_3');\" ><sup id=\"footnote_plugin_tooltip_12336_1_3\" class=\"footnote_plugin_tooltip_text\">(3)<\/sup><\/a><span id=\"footnote_plugin_tooltip_text_12336_1_3\" class=\"footnote_tooltip\">Les coauteurs ont ainsi particip\u00e9 entre autres \u00e0 la publication de \u00ab\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/journals\/lanres\/article\/PIIS2213-2600(19)30174-2\/fulltext\">Beyond silicosis, is the world failing on silica hazards?\u00a0<\/a>\u00bb, <i>The Lancet Respiratory Medicine<\/i>\u00a0, 2029; \u00ab <a href=\"https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/journals\/lanrhe\/article\/PIIS2665-9913(19)30038-4\/fulltext\">The nosology of systemic sclerosis: how lessons from the past offer new challenges in reframing an idiopathic rheumatological disorder<\/a> \u00bb, <i>The Lancet Rheumatology<\/i>, 2019 ; \u00ab <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/j.prrv.2018.05.003\">Paediatric sarcoidosis<\/a> <i>\u00bb, Paediatric Respiratory Reviews<\/i>, 2018 ; \u00ab <a href=\"https:\/\/pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov\/28213786\/\">Silica-associated Systemic Sclerosis in 2017: Sixty years after Erasmus, where do we stand? <\/a>\u00bb, <i>Clinical Rheumatology<\/i>, 2017.<\/span><\/span><script type=\"text\/javascript\"> jQuery('#footnote_plugin_tooltip_12336_1_3').tooltip({ tip: '#footnote_plugin_tooltip_text_12336_1_3', tipClass: 'footnote_tooltip', effect: 'fade', predelay: 0, fadeInSpeed: 200, delay: 400, fadeOutSpeed: 200, position: 'top right', relative: true, offset: [10, 10], });<\/script>.<\/p>\n<p>Le mod\u00e8le de la transition \u00e9pid\u00e9miologique a \u00e9t\u00e9 formul\u00e9 en 1971<span class=\"footnote_referrer\"><a role=\"button\" tabindex=\"0\" onclick=\"footnote_moveToReference_12336_1('footnote_plugin_reference_12336_1_4');\" onkeypress=\"footnote_moveToReference_12336_1('footnote_plugin_reference_12336_1_4');\" ><sup id=\"footnote_plugin_tooltip_12336_1_4\" class=\"footnote_plugin_tooltip_text\">(4)<\/sup><\/a><span id=\"footnote_plugin_tooltip_text_12336_1_4\" class=\"footnote_tooltip\">Abdel Omran, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov\/pmc\/articles\/PMC2566347\/pdf\/11246833.pdf\">\u201cThe Epidemiologic Transition: A Theory of the Epidemiology of Population Change\u201d<\/a>, <i>Milbank Mem. Fund. Q.<\/i>, 1971.<\/span><\/span><script type=\"text\/javascript\"> jQuery('#footnote_plugin_tooltip_12336_1_4').tooltip({ tip: '#footnote_plugin_tooltip_text_12336_1_4', tipClass: 'footnote_tooltip', effect: 'fade', predelay: 0, fadeInSpeed: 200, delay: 400, fadeOutSpeed: 200, position: 'top right', relative: true, offset: [10, 10], });<\/script> par Abdel Omran, sp\u00e9cialiste \u00e9gyptien de sant\u00e9 publique travaillant pour l\u2019OMS. Il venait transposer dans le domaine de la sant\u00e9 publique le mod\u00e8le de la \u00ab\u00a0transition d\u00e9mographique \u00bb \u00e9labor\u00e9 apr\u00e8s-guerre<span class=\"footnote_referrer\"><a role=\"button\" tabindex=\"0\" onclick=\"footnote_moveToReference_12336_1('footnote_plugin_reference_12336_1_5');\" onkeypress=\"footnote_moveToReference_12336_1('footnote_plugin_reference_12336_1_5');\" ><sup id=\"footnote_plugin_tooltip_12336_1_5\" class=\"footnote_plugin_tooltip_text\">(5)<\/sup><\/a><span id=\"footnote_plugin_tooltip_text_12336_1_5\" class=\"footnote_tooltip\">Simon Szreter, \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.jstor.org\/stable\/2938410\">The Idea of Demographic Transition and the Study of Fertility Change: A Critical Intellectual History<\/a>\u201d, <i>Population and Development Review, <\/i>1993.<\/span><\/span><script type=\"text\/javascript\"> jQuery('#footnote_plugin_tooltip_12336_1_5').tooltip({ tip: '#footnote_plugin_tooltip_text_12336_1_5', tipClass: 'footnote_tooltip', effect: 'fade', predelay: 0, fadeInSpeed: 200, delay: 400, fadeOutSpeed: 200, position: 'top right', relative: true, offset: [10, 10], });<\/script>. Un article de 2009<span class=\"footnote_referrer\"><a role=\"button\" tabindex=\"0\" onclick=\"footnote_moveToReference_12336_1('footnote_plugin_reference_12336_1_6');\" onkeypress=\"footnote_moveToReference_12336_1('footnote_plugin_reference_12336_1_6');\" ><sup id=\"footnote_plugin_tooltip_12336_1_6\" class=\"footnote_plugin_tooltip_text\">(6)<\/sup><\/a><span id=\"footnote_plugin_tooltip_text_12336_1_6\" class=\"footnote_tooltip\">George Weisz, Jesse Olszynko-Gryn, \u00ab\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/watermark.silverchair.com\/jrp058.pdf?token=AQECAHi208BE49Ooan9kkhW_Ercy7Dm3ZL_9Cf3qfKAc485ysgAAAsMwggK_BgkqhkiG9w0BBwagggKwMIICrAIBADCCAqUGCSqGSIb3DQEHATAeBglghkgBZQMEAS4wEQQMJDY9uSp_54XkkCnKAgEQgIICdiLWQcIq4BDnoZ4nIQtKz2hNAW3RdbjFVUw6RlAVLILlDgRv3sHGjswmHedGBfBIjMdMa7cPwx6xste5vYpqTrqkMteXjxd7786NykYLpX6GwFuRmwFLkLcxM2UNofD4PxDpE4atI2MXmcGlsNQCb0In86oXCzKMRmEJF-73EaYyYTuynKkRRki60sr5Q03Ksqa04glqCx4rFL3CM0h46u75EzzU56_nmorRXEyGn6iuQ1ckai-QqFSCnOPRZcOcTGRMEf4bfbO2_O2H1iDJ9ljTpFKCgdyPCXR3xX4b33hJ0d1WLe361p39uMONuxs1JQwCfwBOkWXtEvROSBYc9ajZawG2EGdUAQrYgPWergfnfYkhGbl3UlFBkRjcqXrlnWGDnyruzW_9-YdexIZsFPMCxKwOgxXPZjhyK1bYtutAsRBHNRWub5yPkUvBpZ1EAy25qfurGbtP5lohix8FMo9k6aHrm0iMje8Vw0RcfZysqeubtuXPC5oLsrSup3sem5iIT7zvvB3az0P3GcHC3Qbk7LVGFkuU9tL0I2VMEY5XjklTXyOUFjfClK0IR4fYMDZ2FaWRAZ9aG_gYouc6jsFIHSf9_nHepLlCn7MHso4TUUScvAwXlrX6j8yvYa_nGg7lAUCWX6BPYBGhyBhAGuURjRxC0c6kvz5nZ37bQ8UqQ8A0a2fbbTrJgLH6gzIH4dFNQ8vdw2bYd_QTpxR12JhWv2YKnbs-UusHBQ4sDVjOcHHHcF2dsuaDDlbeaOH8odjB-xzRsaWIGj5sb3FjmIZJBaTP0Jq15gkE0xpv8fOwnC0WOtMjcRhL6UnslFmBC6fvIIDdsA\">The Theory of Epidemiologic Transition: the Origins of a Citation Classic<\/a>\u00a0\u00bb, <i>Journal of the History of Medicine and Allied Sciences<\/i>, 2009.<\/span><\/span><script type=\"text\/javascript\"> jQuery('#footnote_plugin_tooltip_12336_1_6').tooltip({ tip: '#footnote_plugin_tooltip_text_12336_1_6', tipClass: 'footnote_tooltip', effect: 'fade', predelay: 0, fadeInSpeed: 200, delay: 400, fadeOutSpeed: 200, position: 'top right', relative: true, offset: [10, 10], });<\/script> a montr\u00e9 que ladite transposition \u00e9tait aussi une mani\u00e8re d\u2019aider au r\u00e9\u00e9quilibrage des politiques sanitaires (et donc du r\u00f4le de l\u2019OMS) par rapport aux politiques d\u00e9mographiques. Mont\u00e9es en puissance dans les ann\u00e9es 1960 sous la forme de politiques massives de r\u00e9duction de la f\u00e9condit\u00e9 dans les pays en d\u00e9veloppement (venant en quelque sorte r\u00e9aliser les pr\u00e9visions du mod\u00e8le de la transition d\u00e9mographique), elles avaient assur\u00e9 la pr\u00e9pond\u00e9rance des organismes qui les portaient : agences de l\u2019ONU, grandes fondations am\u00e9ricaines, et ONG nationales et transnationales<span class=\"footnote_referrer\"><a role=\"button\" tabindex=\"0\" onclick=\"footnote_moveToReference_12336_1('footnote_plugin_reference_12336_1_7');\" onkeypress=\"footnote_moveToReference_12336_1('footnote_plugin_reference_12336_1_7');\" ><sup id=\"footnote_plugin_tooltip_12336_1_7\" class=\"footnote_plugin_tooltip_text\">(7)<\/sup><\/a><span id=\"footnote_plugin_tooltip_text_12336_1_7\" class=\"footnote_tooltip\">Matthew Connelly,\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.hup.harvard.edu\/catalog.php?isbn=9780674034600\"><i>Fatal Misconception: The Struggle to Control World Population<\/i><\/a>, Harvard University Press, 2008.<\/span><\/span><script type=\"text\/javascript\"> jQuery('#footnote_plugin_tooltip_12336_1_7').tooltip({ tip: '#footnote_plugin_tooltip_text_12336_1_7', tipClass: 'footnote_tooltip', effect: 'fade', predelay: 0, fadeInSpeed: 200, delay: 400, fadeOutSpeed: 200, position: 'top right', relative: true, offset: [10, 10], });<\/script>.<\/p>\n<h4>Le <em>Global Burden of Disease<\/em> comme objectivation de la transition \u00e9pid\u00e9miologique\u00a0?<\/h4>\n<p>Dans les ann\u00e9es\u00a01990, le <i>Global Burden of Disease<\/i> (GBD) est venu \u00e0 la fois objectiver et promouvoir la validit\u00e9 plan\u00e9taire du mod\u00e8le de la transition \u00e9pid\u00e9miologique. Originellement con\u00e7ue par la Banque Mondiale, cette publication a \u00e9t\u00e9 depuis 1998 mise en \u0153uvre par la \u00ab\u00a0Disease Burden Unit\u00a0\u00bb de l\u2019OMS, puis depuis 2007 par l\u2019<i>Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation<\/i>. Log\u00e9 \u00e0 l\u2019Universit\u00e9 de Washington \u00e0 Seattle, il compte la Fondation Bill &amp; Melinda Gates parmi ses financeurs, et s\u2019appuie sur un r\u00e9seau international de milliers de chercheurs. Le GBD fournit actuellement des donn\u00e9es d\u00e9taill\u00e9es de morbidit\u00e9, d\u2019invalidit\u00e9 et de mortalit\u00e9 pour plus de 200 pays, des centaines de maladies ou causes d\u2019accidents<span class=\"footnote_referrer\"><a role=\"button\" tabindex=\"0\" onclick=\"footnote_moveToReference_12336_1('footnote_plugin_reference_12336_1_8');\" onkeypress=\"footnote_moveToReference_12336_1('footnote_plugin_reference_12336_1_8');\" ><sup id=\"footnote_plugin_tooltip_12336_1_8\" class=\"footnote_plugin_tooltip_text\">(8)<\/sup><\/a><span id=\"footnote_plugin_tooltip_text_12336_1_8\" class=\"footnote_tooltip\">Ce paragraphe s\u2019appuie sur\u00a0:\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.healthdata.org\/gbd\/about\/history\">GBD History<\/a>. Voir aussi : Conrad Keating, \u00ab\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/journals\/lancet\/article\/PIIS0140-6736(18)31261-3\/fulltext\">The Genesis of the Global Burden of Disease Study\u00a0<\/a>\u00bb, The Lancet, 2018.<\/span><\/span><script type=\"text\/javascript\"> jQuery('#footnote_plugin_tooltip_12336_1_8').tooltip({ tip: '#footnote_plugin_tooltip_text_12336_1_8', tipClass: 'footnote_tooltip', effect: 'fade', predelay: 0, fadeInSpeed: 200, delay: 400, fadeOutSpeed: 200, position: 'top right', relative: true, offset: [10, 10], });<\/script>.<\/p>\n<div id=\"attachment_12567\" style=\"width: 650px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"https:\/\/ourworldindata.org\/grapher\/dalys-rate-from-all-causes\"><img aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-12567\" decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"wp-image-12567 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/www.sciencespo.fr\/research\/cogito\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/11\/640px-Burden_of_disease_OWID.svg.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"640\" height=\"452\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.sciencespo.fr\/research\/cogito\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/11\/640px-Burden_of_disease_OWID.svg.png 640w, https:\/\/www.sciencespo.fr\/research\/cogito\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/11\/640px-Burden_of_disease_OWID.svg-300x212.png 300w, https:\/\/www.sciencespo.fr\/research\/cogito\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/11\/640px-Burden_of_disease_OWID.svg-207x146.png 207w, https:\/\/www.sciencespo.fr\/research\/cogito\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/11\/640px-Burden_of_disease_OWID.svg-50x35.png 50w, https:\/\/www.sciencespo.fr\/research\/cogito\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/11\/640px-Burden_of_disease_OWID.svg-106x75.png 106w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 640px) 100vw, 640px\" \/><\/a><p id=\"caption-attachment-12567\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Source : Our World in Data, CC BY 3.0<\/p><\/div>\n<p>Le GBD propose les DALY (<i>disability-adjusted life-years<\/i>) comme mesure des ann\u00e9es de vie perdues par d\u00e9c\u00e8s pr\u00e9matur\u00e9 (<i>years of life lost from premature death ou YLL),<\/i> mais aussi par l\u2019incapacit\u00e9 (<i>years of life lived in ill-health &amp; disability ou YLD)<\/i>, r\u00e9sultant de la mauvaise sant\u00e9 ou de l\u2019invalidit\u00e9. Ces trois instruments, DALY, YLL et YLD, servent \u00e0 produire des statistiques appuy\u00e9es sur la division entre maladies infectieuses (en anglais <i>communicable diseases<\/i>) et non infectieuses. Le GBD objective ainsi, comme nous l\u2019avons dit, le mod\u00e8le de la transition \u00e9pid\u00e9miologique et la partition qu\u2019il op\u00e8re entre ces deux cat\u00e9gories de maladies. Les diff\u00e9rentes livraisons du GBD viennent en effet \u00e9tayer, en effectifs absolus, le d\u00e9clin quantitatif des maladies \u00ab infectieuses \u00bb au profit des \u00ab non infectieuses \u00bb<span class=\"footnote_referrer\"><a role=\"button\" tabindex=\"0\" onclick=\"footnote_moveToReference_12336_1('footnote_plugin_reference_12336_1_9');\" onkeypress=\"footnote_moveToReference_12336_1('footnote_plugin_reference_12336_1_9');\" ><sup id=\"footnote_plugin_tooltip_12336_1_9\" class=\"footnote_plugin_tooltip_text\">(9)<\/sup><\/a><span id=\"footnote_plugin_tooltip_text_12336_1_9\" class=\"footnote_tooltip\">GBD 2013 DALYs and HALE Collaborators et al., <a href=\"https:\/\/pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov\/26321261\/\"><i>Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for 306 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 188 countries, 1990\u20132013: quantifying the epidemiological transition<\/i><\/a>, <i>The Lancet<\/i>, 2015.<\/span><\/span><script type=\"text\/javascript\"> jQuery('#footnote_plugin_tooltip_12336_1_9').tooltip({ tip: '#footnote_plugin_tooltip_text_12336_1_9', tipClass: 'footnote_tooltip', effect: 'fade', predelay: 0, fadeInSpeed: 200, delay: 400, fadeOutSpeed: 200, position: 'top right', relative: true, offset: [10, 10], });<\/script>. Mais cette tendance se complique en introduisant la d\u00e9mographie. Si l\u2019on raisonne en taux pour 100\u2009000 personnes, la chute des DALYs s\u2019acc\u00e9l\u00e8re, certes, pour les maladies infectieuses, mais elle stagne pour les maladies chroniques. Plus d\u00e9concertant, la chute du nombre de DALYs s\u2019observe <i>pour les deux types de maladies <\/i>si l\u2019on neutralise l\u2019effet du vieillissement de la population. En raisonnant statistiquement sur une population d\u2019\u00e2ges standardis\u00e9s, la diminution des taux de morbidit\u00e9 chronique est presque aussi rapide que celle des taux de morbidit\u00e9 infectieuse, ces deux chutes s\u2019acc\u00e9l\u00e9rant au 21e si\u00e8cle. Ces donn\u00e9es sont ant\u00e9rieures \u00e0 l\u2019irruption du covid19, dont on ignore dans quelle mesure elle viendra amortir (plut\u00f4t sans doute qu\u2019inverser) le d\u00e9clin des DALYs li\u00e9es aux maladies infectieuses. Ainsi mis en question par la d\u00e9mographie, le mod\u00e8le de la transition \u00e9pid\u00e9miologique a aussi \u00e9t\u00e9 questionn\u00e9 par la m\u00e9decine et l\u2019\u00e9pid\u00e9miologie d\u00e8s avant la pand\u00e9mie actuelle \u2014 et plus encore depuis. Le message que portent les effets du covid19\u00a0sont en effet loin de se r\u00e9sumer \u00e0 un retour pur et simple de la dangerosit\u00e9 \u00ab\u00a0brute\u00a0\u00bb des maladies infectieuses. C\u2019est pr\u00e9cis\u00e9ment ce qui vient questionner le lancement d\u2019un programme d\u2019investissement en sant\u00e9 publique tel que celui qu\u2019a annonc\u00e9 Emmanuel Macron. Nous souhaiterions l\u2019expliquer en quelques points pour terminer.<\/p>\n<h4>Le covid19 est-il (seulement) une maladie infectieuse\u00a0?<\/h4>\n<p>L\u2019une des caract\u00e9ristiques \u00e9pid\u00e9miologiques marquantes de la pand\u00e9mie de covid19 r\u00e9side dans l\u2019in\u00e9gale distribution sociale de l\u2019incidence et de la gravit\u00e9 de la maladie. Ce seul constat invite \u00e0 appr\u00e9hender avec beaucoup de circonspection l\u2019\u00e9pith\u00e8te \u00ab\u00a0infectieuse\u00a0\u00bb qui qualifie la maladie\u00a0covid19.<\/p>\n<div id=\"attachment_12569\" style=\"width: 310px\" class=\"wp-caption alignleft\"><img aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-12569\" decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-12569\" src=\"https:\/\/www.sciencespo.fr\/research\/cogito\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/11\/shutterstock_1845553264-300x200.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"200\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.sciencespo.fr\/research\/cogito\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/11\/shutterstock_1845553264-300x200.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.sciencespo.fr\/research\/cogito\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/11\/shutterstock_1845553264-768x512.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.sciencespo.fr\/research\/cogito\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/11\/shutterstock_1845553264-219x146.jpg 219w, https:\/\/www.sciencespo.fr\/research\/cogito\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/11\/shutterstock_1845553264-50x33.jpg 50w, https:\/\/www.sciencespo.fr\/research\/cogito\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/11\/shutterstock_1845553264-112x75.jpg 112w, https:\/\/www.sciencespo.fr\/research\/cogito\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/11\/shutterstock_1845553264.jpg 1000w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><p id=\"caption-attachment-12569\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Shutterstock<\/p><\/div>\n<p>Certes, l\u2019agent infectieux\u00a0SARS-CoV-2 est un agent causal du covid19, mais les in\u00e9galit\u00e9s sociales d\u2019exposition \u00e0 la maladie et \u00e0 ses formes les plus graves indiquent le caract\u00e8re d\u00e9terminant de param\u00e8tres non infectieux dans l\u2019\u00e9pid\u00e9miologie de la maladie. Alors que ce caract\u00e8re mixte entre caract\u00e9ristiques infectieuses et d\u00e9terminants environnementaux (sociaux) du covid19 a pu \u00eatre pr\u00e9sent\u00e9 comme r\u00e9v\u00e9lant de mani\u00e8re in\u00e9dite des in\u00e9galit\u00e9s sociales de sant\u00e9 \u00e0 travers la pand\u00e9mie, il existait depuis longtemps bien des raisons de penser ainsi. Pasteur lui-m\u00eame (et le pasteurisme) ont souvent \u00e9t\u00e9 caricatur\u00e9s comme les promoteurs de la logique causaliste r\u00e9ductrice \u00ab\u00a0<i>one germ, one disease<\/i> \u00bb, qui laisse entendre le caract\u00e8re n\u00e9cessaire et suffisant d\u2019un agent infectieux dans les manifestations d\u2019une maladie infectieuse. Or, d\u00e8s les travaux de Pasteur, la causalit\u00e9 de l\u2019agent infectieux entra\u00eenant une maladie associ\u00e9e est con\u00e7ue dans une logique \u00e9cologique, comme \u00e9tant sujette \u00e0 de fortes variations selon les conditions du milieu dans lequel prend place la contagion<span class=\"footnote_referrer\"><a role=\"button\" tabindex=\"0\" onclick=\"footnote_moveToReference_12336_1('footnote_plugin_reference_12336_1_10');\" onkeypress=\"footnote_moveToReference_12336_1('footnote_plugin_reference_12336_1_10');\" ><sup id=\"footnote_plugin_tooltip_12336_1_10\" class=\"footnote_plugin_tooltip_text\">(10)<\/sup><\/a><span id=\"footnote_plugin_tooltip_text_12336_1_10\" class=\"footnote_tooltip\">\u00a0J. Andrew Mendelsohn, \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.jstor.org\/stable\/23332438\">&lsquo;Like All That Lives&rsquo;: Biology, Medicine and Bacteria in the Age of Pasteur and Koch\u201d, <i>History and Philosophy of the Life Sciences<\/i><\/a>, 2002.<\/span><\/span><script type=\"text\/javascript\"> jQuery('#footnote_plugin_tooltip_12336_1_10').tooltip({ tip: '#footnote_plugin_tooltip_text_12336_1_10', tipClass: 'footnote_tooltip', effect: 'fade', predelay: 0, fadeInSpeed: 200, delay: 400, fadeOutSpeed: 200, position: 'top right', relative: true, offset: [10, 10], });<\/script>. Les d\u00e9bats r\u00e9cents en \u00e9pid\u00e9miologie et en m\u00e9decine, ant\u00e9rieurs \u00e0 la survenue du covid19, ont \u00e9galement abond\u00e9 en ce sens, ainsi que le montrent les r\u00e9flexions sur la nosologie et l\u2019onomastique qui l\u2019exprime. Pour n\u2019en prendre que deux exemples, la notion de <i>syndemic<span class=\"footnote_referrer\"><a role=\"button\" tabindex=\"0\" onclick=\"footnote_moveToReference_12336_1('footnote_plugin_reference_12336_1_11');\" onkeypress=\"footnote_moveToReference_12336_1('footnote_plugin_reference_12336_1_11');\" ><sup id=\"footnote_plugin_tooltip_12336_1_11\" class=\"footnote_plugin_tooltip_text\">(11)<\/sup><\/a><span id=\"footnote_plugin_tooltip_text_12336_1_11\" class=\"footnote_tooltip\">Merrill Charles Singer et al., \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/abs\/pii\/S014067361730003X?via%3Dihub\">Syndemics and the biosocial conception of health<\/a>\u201d, The Lancet, 2017; Richard Horton, \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/journals\/lancet\/article\/PIIS0140-6736(20)32000-6\/fulltext\">COVID-19 is not a pandemic<\/a>\u201d, The Lancet, 2020.<\/span><\/span><script type=\"text\/javascript\"> jQuery('#footnote_plugin_tooltip_12336_1_11').tooltip({ tip: '#footnote_plugin_tooltip_text_12336_1_11', tipClass: 'footnote_tooltip', effect: 'fade', predelay: 0, fadeInSpeed: 200, delay: 400, fadeOutSpeed: 200, position: 'top right', relative: true, offset: [10, 10], });<\/script><\/i> d\u00e9signe des synergies entre maladies (infectieuses ou non) et conditions socio-environnementales, tandis que l\u2019id\u00e9e de maladie \u00ab socialement transmissible \u00bb<span class=\"footnote_referrer\"><a role=\"button\" tabindex=\"0\" onclick=\"footnote_moveToReference_12336_1('footnote_plugin_reference_12336_1_12');\" onkeypress=\"footnote_moveToReference_12336_1('footnote_plugin_reference_12336_1_12');\" ><sup id=\"footnote_plugin_tooltip_12336_1_12\" class=\"footnote_plugin_tooltip_text\">(12)<\/sup><\/a><span id=\"footnote_plugin_tooltip_text_12336_1_12\" class=\"footnote_tooltip\">Luke N. Allen, Andrea B. Feigl, \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/journals\/langlo\/article\/PIIS2214-109X(17)30200-0\/fulltext\">Reframing non-communicable diseases as socially transmitted conditions<\/a>\u201d, <i>The Lancet Global Health<\/i>, 2017; Catherine Cavalin, Alain Lescoat, \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/journals\/lancet\/article\/PIIS0140-6736(17)32419-4\/fulltext\">From (re-)framing NCDs to shaping public health policies on NCDs and communicable diseases<\/a>\u201d, <i>The Lancet<\/i>, 2017; Catherine Cavalin, Alain Lescoat, Odile Macchi, Matthieu Revest, Paul-Andr\u00e9 Rosental,\u00a0 Patrick J\u00e9go, \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/reader.elsevier.com\/reader\/sd\/pii\/S2214109X17303273?token=92C8F7D12C1D65ACF58D9AD5050C27F528A1DC81FBF3AC2330781BB20FB0DC3F527044FA7787754578DC897B7F45038C&amp;originRegion=eu-west-1&amp;originCreation=20211011145522\">Reframing noncommunicable Diseases<\/a>\u201d, <i>The Lancet Global Health<\/i>, 2017.<\/span><\/span><script type=\"text\/javascript\"> jQuery('#footnote_plugin_tooltip_12336_1_12').tooltip({ tip: '#footnote_plugin_tooltip_text_12336_1_12', tipClass: 'footnote_tooltip', effect: 'fade', predelay: 0, fadeInSpeed: 200, delay: 400, fadeOutSpeed: 200, position: 'top right', relative: true, offset: [10, 10], });<\/script> a \u00e9t\u00e9 discut\u00e9e comme un levier pour refonder la fronti\u00e8re nosologique entre l\u2019infectieux et le non infectieux.<\/p>\n<p>Ces brouillages de fronti\u00e8res donnent aux sciences sociales un r\u00f4le actif dans et avec la recherche m\u00e9dicale, entendue dans ses aspects cliniques et \u00e9pid\u00e9miologiques. En doublant l\u2019imm\u00e9diatet\u00e9 de la contagion infectieuse par la longue dur\u00e9e des conditions de vie, en pointant des facteurs de risque professionnels et environnementaux au long cours dans la vie des personnes, ils appellent la m\u00e9decine \u00e0 rechercher le savoir-faire des sciences sociales pour reconstituer des parcours de vie \u00e0 travers l\u2019anamn\u00e8se. Les r\u00e9sultats obtenus en ce sens pour des maladies chroniques syst\u00e9miques voisines du covid19, par leurs effets et leurs m\u00e9canismes immunitaires<span class=\"footnote_referrer\"><a role=\"button\" tabindex=\"0\" onclick=\"footnote_moveToReference_12336_1('footnote_plugin_reference_12336_1_13');\" onkeypress=\"footnote_moveToReference_12336_1('footnote_plugin_reference_12336_1_13');\" ><sup id=\"footnote_plugin_tooltip_12336_1_13\" class=\"footnote_plugin_tooltip_text\">(13)<\/sup><\/a><span id=\"footnote_plugin_tooltip_text_12336_1_13\" class=\"footnote_tooltip\">Catherine Cavalin, Micka\u00ebl Catinon, Odile Macchi, Michel Vincent et Paul-Andr\u00e9 Rosental, \u00ab\u00a0Expositions aux particules inorganiques : comment poser la question ?\u00a0\u00bb in Emmanuelle, Merckl\u00e9 Pierre (<i>dir.<\/i>), <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ined.fr\/fr\/publications\/editions\/grandes-enquetes\/un-panel-francais\/\">Un panel fran\u00e7ais. L\u2019\u00c9tude longitudinale par internet pour les sciences sociales (ELIPSS)<\/a>, 2021.<\/span><\/span><script type=\"text\/javascript\"> jQuery('#footnote_plugin_tooltip_12336_1_13').tooltip({ tip: '#footnote_plugin_tooltip_text_12336_1_13', tipClass: 'footnote_tooltip', effect: 'fade', predelay: 0, fadeInSpeed: 200, delay: 400, fadeOutSpeed: 200, position: 'top right', relative: true, offset: [10, 10], });<\/script>, en fournissent, nous l\u2019esp\u00e9rons, des illustrations prometteuses.<\/p>\n<pre><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencespo.fr\/histoire\/fr\/chercheur\/Paul-Andr%c3%a9%20Rosental\/76168.html\">Paul-Andr\u00e9 Rosental<\/a> est professeur des Universit\u00e9s au Centre d\u2019histoire et membre du Council of Advisors du r\u00e9seau de recherche Population Europe. Ses recherches portent sur D\u00e9mographie et population, Sant\u00e9 publique et protection sociale, Savoirs, savoir-faire, organisations, Migrations, Biopolitique et eug\u00e9nisme.\u00a0\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencespo.fr\/liepp\/fr\/users\/catherine-cavalin.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Catherine Cavalin<\/a> est sociologue, charg\u00e9e de recherche CNRS \u00e0 l'Institut de recherche interdisciplinaire en sciences sociales (IRISSO, Paris-Dauphine, PSL). Elle \u00e9tait auparavant chercheuse au Centre d\u2019\u00e9tudes europ\u00e9ennes de Sciences Po, dans le cadre du projet de recherche SILICOSIS financ\u00e9 par le Conseil europ\u00e9en de la recherche (ERC) et pilot\u00e9 par Paul-Andr\u00e9 Rosental. Elle est \u00e9galement chercheuse associ\u00e9e du Centre d\u2019\u00e9tudes de l\u2019emploi et du travail (CNAM) et du Laboratoire interdisciplinaire d\u2019\u00e9valuation des politiques publiques (LIEPP) de Sciences Po.<\/pre>\n<div class=\"speaker-mute footnotes_reference_container\"> <div class=\"footnote_container_prepare\"><p><span role=\"button\" tabindex=\"0\" class=\"footnote_reference_container_label pointer\" onclick=\"footnote_expand_collapse_reference_container_12336_1();\">Notes<\/span><span role=\"button\" tabindex=\"0\" class=\"footnote_reference_container_collapse_button\" style=\"display: none;\" onclick=\"footnote_expand_collapse_reference_container_12336_1();\">[<a id=\"footnote_reference_container_collapse_button_12336_1\">+<\/a>]<\/span><\/p><\/div> <div id=\"footnote_references_container_12336_1\" style=\"\"><table class=\"footnotes_table footnote-reference-container\"><caption class=\"accessibility\">Notes<\/caption> <tbody> \r\n\r\n<tr class=\"footnotes_plugin_reference_row\"> <th scope=\"row\" class=\"footnote_plugin_index_combi pointer\"  onclick=\"footnote_moveToAnchor_12336_1('footnote_plugin_tooltip_12336_1_1');\"><a id=\"footnote_plugin_reference_12336_1_1\" class=\"footnote_backlink\"><span class=\"footnote_index_arrow\">&#8593;<\/span>1<\/a><\/th> <td class=\"footnote_plugin_text\">World Health Organization,\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/apps.who.int\/iris\/handle\/10665\/66155\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"><i>Influenza pandemic preparedness plan: the role of WHO and guidelines for national and regional planning<\/i><\/a>, \u200e1999.<\/td><\/tr>\r\n\r\n<tr class=\"footnotes_plugin_reference_row\"> <th scope=\"row\" class=\"footnote_plugin_index_combi pointer\"  onclick=\"footnote_moveToAnchor_12336_1('footnote_plugin_tooltip_12336_1_2');\"><a id=\"footnote_plugin_reference_12336_1_2\" class=\"footnote_backlink\"><span class=\"footnote_index_arrow\">&#8593;<\/span>2<\/a><\/th> <td class=\"footnote_plugin_text\">voir <a href=\"https:\/\/www.elysee.fr\/emmanuel-macron\/2021\/06\/29\/faire-de-la-france-la-1ere-nation-europeenne-innovante-et-souveraine-en-sante\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Faire de la France la 1\u00e8re nation europ\u00e9enne innovante et souveraine en sant\u00e9.<\/a><\/td><\/tr>\r\n\r\n<tr class=\"footnotes_plugin_reference_row\"> <th scope=\"row\" class=\"footnote_plugin_index_combi pointer\"  onclick=\"footnote_moveToAnchor_12336_1('footnote_plugin_tooltip_12336_1_3');\"><a id=\"footnote_plugin_reference_12336_1_3\" class=\"footnote_backlink\"><span class=\"footnote_index_arrow\">&#8593;<\/span>3<\/a><\/th> <td class=\"footnote_plugin_text\">Les coauteurs ont ainsi particip\u00e9 entre autres \u00e0 la publication de \u00ab\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/journals\/lanres\/article\/PIIS2213-2600(19)30174-2\/fulltext\">Beyond silicosis, is the world failing on silica hazards?\u00a0<\/a>\u00bb, <i>The Lancet Respiratory Medicine<\/i>\u00a0, 2029; \u00ab <a href=\"https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/journals\/lanrhe\/article\/PIIS2665-9913(19)30038-4\/fulltext\">The nosology of systemic sclerosis: how lessons from the past offer new challenges in reframing an idiopathic rheumatological disorder<\/a> \u00bb, <i>The Lancet Rheumatology<\/i>, 2019 ; \u00ab <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/j.prrv.2018.05.003\">Paediatric sarcoidosis<\/a> <i>\u00bb, Paediatric Respiratory Reviews<\/i>, 2018 ; \u00ab <a href=\"https:\/\/pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov\/28213786\/\">Silica-associated Systemic Sclerosis in 2017: Sixty years after Erasmus, where do we stand? <\/a>\u00bb, <i>Clinical Rheumatology<\/i>, 2017.<\/td><\/tr>\r\n\r\n<tr class=\"footnotes_plugin_reference_row\"> <th scope=\"row\" class=\"footnote_plugin_index_combi pointer\"  onclick=\"footnote_moveToAnchor_12336_1('footnote_plugin_tooltip_12336_1_4');\"><a id=\"footnote_plugin_reference_12336_1_4\" class=\"footnote_backlink\"><span class=\"footnote_index_arrow\">&#8593;<\/span>4<\/a><\/th> <td class=\"footnote_plugin_text\">Abdel Omran, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov\/pmc\/articles\/PMC2566347\/pdf\/11246833.pdf\">\u201cThe Epidemiologic Transition: A Theory of the Epidemiology of Population Change\u201d<\/a>, <i>Milbank Mem. Fund. Q.<\/i>, 1971.<\/td><\/tr>\r\n\r\n<tr class=\"footnotes_plugin_reference_row\"> <th scope=\"row\" class=\"footnote_plugin_index_combi pointer\"  onclick=\"footnote_moveToAnchor_12336_1('footnote_plugin_tooltip_12336_1_5');\"><a id=\"footnote_plugin_reference_12336_1_5\" class=\"footnote_backlink\"><span class=\"footnote_index_arrow\">&#8593;<\/span>5<\/a><\/th> <td class=\"footnote_plugin_text\">Simon Szreter, \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.jstor.org\/stable\/2938410\">The Idea of Demographic Transition and the Study of Fertility Change: A Critical Intellectual History<\/a>\u201d, <i>Population and Development Review, <\/i>1993.<\/td><\/tr>\r\n\r\n<tr class=\"footnotes_plugin_reference_row\"> <th scope=\"row\" class=\"footnote_plugin_index_combi pointer\"  onclick=\"footnote_moveToAnchor_12336_1('footnote_plugin_tooltip_12336_1_6');\"><a id=\"footnote_plugin_reference_12336_1_6\" class=\"footnote_backlink\"><span class=\"footnote_index_arrow\">&#8593;<\/span>6<\/a><\/th> <td class=\"footnote_plugin_text\">George Weisz, Jesse Olszynko-Gryn, \u00ab\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/watermark.silverchair.com\/jrp058.pdf?token=AQECAHi208BE49Ooan9kkhW_Ercy7Dm3ZL_9Cf3qfKAc485ysgAAAsMwggK_BgkqhkiG9w0BBwagggKwMIICrAIBADCCAqUGCSqGSIb3DQEHATAeBglghkgBZQMEAS4wEQQMJDY9uSp_54XkkCnKAgEQgIICdiLWQcIq4BDnoZ4nIQtKz2hNAW3RdbjFVUw6RlAVLILlDgRv3sHGjswmHedGBfBIjMdMa7cPwx6xste5vYpqTrqkMteXjxd7786NykYLpX6GwFuRmwFLkLcxM2UNofD4PxDpE4atI2MXmcGlsNQCb0In86oXCzKMRmEJF-73EaYyYTuynKkRRki60sr5Q03Ksqa04glqCx4rFL3CM0h46u75EzzU56_nmorRXEyGn6iuQ1ckai-QqFSCnOPRZcOcTGRMEf4bfbO2_O2H1iDJ9ljTpFKCgdyPCXR3xX4b33hJ0d1WLe361p39uMONuxs1JQwCfwBOkWXtEvROSBYc9ajZawG2EGdUAQrYgPWergfnfYkhGbl3UlFBkRjcqXrlnWGDnyruzW_9-YdexIZsFPMCxKwOgxXPZjhyK1bYtutAsRBHNRWub5yPkUvBpZ1EAy25qfurGbtP5lohix8FMo9k6aHrm0iMje8Vw0RcfZysqeubtuXPC5oLsrSup3sem5iIT7zvvB3az0P3GcHC3Qbk7LVGFkuU9tL0I2VMEY5XjklTXyOUFjfClK0IR4fYMDZ2FaWRAZ9aG_gYouc6jsFIHSf9_nHepLlCn7MHso4TUUScvAwXlrX6j8yvYa_nGg7lAUCWX6BPYBGhyBhAGuURjRxC0c6kvz5nZ37bQ8UqQ8A0a2fbbTrJgLH6gzIH4dFNQ8vdw2bYd_QTpxR12JhWv2YKnbs-UusHBQ4sDVjOcHHHcF2dsuaDDlbeaOH8odjB-xzRsaWIGj5sb3FjmIZJBaTP0Jq15gkE0xpv8fOwnC0WOtMjcRhL6UnslFmBC6fvIIDdsA\">The Theory of Epidemiologic Transition: the Origins of a Citation Classic<\/a>\u00a0\u00bb, <i>Journal of the History of Medicine and Allied Sciences<\/i>, 2009.<\/td><\/tr>\r\n\r\n<tr class=\"footnotes_plugin_reference_row\"> <th scope=\"row\" class=\"footnote_plugin_index_combi pointer\"  onclick=\"footnote_moveToAnchor_12336_1('footnote_plugin_tooltip_12336_1_7');\"><a id=\"footnote_plugin_reference_12336_1_7\" class=\"footnote_backlink\"><span class=\"footnote_index_arrow\">&#8593;<\/span>7<\/a><\/th> <td class=\"footnote_plugin_text\">Matthew Connelly,\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.hup.harvard.edu\/catalog.php?isbn=9780674034600\"><i>Fatal Misconception: The Struggle to Control World Population<\/i><\/a>, Harvard University Press, 2008.<\/td><\/tr>\r\n\r\n<tr class=\"footnotes_plugin_reference_row\"> <th scope=\"row\" class=\"footnote_plugin_index_combi pointer\"  onclick=\"footnote_moveToAnchor_12336_1('footnote_plugin_tooltip_12336_1_8');\"><a id=\"footnote_plugin_reference_12336_1_8\" class=\"footnote_backlink\"><span class=\"footnote_index_arrow\">&#8593;<\/span>8<\/a><\/th> <td class=\"footnote_plugin_text\">Ce paragraphe s\u2019appuie sur\u00a0:\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.healthdata.org\/gbd\/about\/history\">GBD History<\/a>. Voir aussi : Conrad Keating, \u00ab\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/journals\/lancet\/article\/PIIS0140-6736(18)31261-3\/fulltext\">The Genesis of the Global Burden of Disease Study\u00a0<\/a>\u00bb, The Lancet, 2018.<\/td><\/tr>\r\n\r\n<tr class=\"footnotes_plugin_reference_row\"> <th scope=\"row\" class=\"footnote_plugin_index_combi pointer\"  onclick=\"footnote_moveToAnchor_12336_1('footnote_plugin_tooltip_12336_1_9');\"><a id=\"footnote_plugin_reference_12336_1_9\" class=\"footnote_backlink\"><span class=\"footnote_index_arrow\">&#8593;<\/span>9<\/a><\/th> <td class=\"footnote_plugin_text\">GBD 2013 DALYs and HALE Collaborators et al., <a href=\"https:\/\/pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov\/26321261\/\"><i>Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for 306 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 188 countries, 1990\u20132013: quantifying the epidemiological transition<\/i><\/a>, <i>The Lancet<\/i>, 2015.<\/td><\/tr>\r\n\r\n<tr class=\"footnotes_plugin_reference_row\"> <th scope=\"row\" class=\"footnote_plugin_index_combi pointer\"  onclick=\"footnote_moveToAnchor_12336_1('footnote_plugin_tooltip_12336_1_10');\"><a id=\"footnote_plugin_reference_12336_1_10\" class=\"footnote_backlink\"><span class=\"footnote_index_arrow\">&#8593;<\/span>10<\/a><\/th> <td class=\"footnote_plugin_text\">\u00a0J. Andrew Mendelsohn, \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.jstor.org\/stable\/23332438\">&lsquo;Like All That Lives&rsquo;: Biology, Medicine and Bacteria in the Age of Pasteur and Koch\u201d, <i>History and Philosophy of the Life Sciences<\/i><\/a>, 2002.<\/td><\/tr>\r\n\r\n<tr class=\"footnotes_plugin_reference_row\"> <th scope=\"row\" class=\"footnote_plugin_index_combi pointer\"  onclick=\"footnote_moveToAnchor_12336_1('footnote_plugin_tooltip_12336_1_11');\"><a id=\"footnote_plugin_reference_12336_1_11\" class=\"footnote_backlink\"><span class=\"footnote_index_arrow\">&#8593;<\/span>11<\/a><\/th> <td class=\"footnote_plugin_text\">Merrill Charles Singer et al., \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/abs\/pii\/S014067361730003X?via%3Dihub\">Syndemics and the biosocial conception of health<\/a>\u201d, The Lancet, 2017; Richard Horton, \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/journals\/lancet\/article\/PIIS0140-6736(20)32000-6\/fulltext\">COVID-19 is not a pandemic<\/a>\u201d, The Lancet, 2020.<\/td><\/tr>\r\n\r\n<tr class=\"footnotes_plugin_reference_row\"> <th scope=\"row\" class=\"footnote_plugin_index_combi pointer\"  onclick=\"footnote_moveToAnchor_12336_1('footnote_plugin_tooltip_12336_1_12');\"><a id=\"footnote_plugin_reference_12336_1_12\" class=\"footnote_backlink\"><span class=\"footnote_index_arrow\">&#8593;<\/span>12<\/a><\/th> <td class=\"footnote_plugin_text\">Luke N. Allen, Andrea B. Feigl, \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/journals\/langlo\/article\/PIIS2214-109X(17)30200-0\/fulltext\">Reframing non-communicable diseases as socially transmitted conditions<\/a>\u201d, <i>The Lancet Global Health<\/i>, 2017; Catherine Cavalin, Alain Lescoat, \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/journals\/lancet\/article\/PIIS0140-6736(17)32419-4\/fulltext\">From (re-)framing NCDs to shaping public health policies on NCDs and communicable diseases<\/a>\u201d, <i>The Lancet<\/i>, 2017; Catherine Cavalin, Alain Lescoat, Odile Macchi, Matthieu Revest, Paul-Andr\u00e9 Rosental,\u00a0 Patrick J\u00e9go, \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/reader.elsevier.com\/reader\/sd\/pii\/S2214109X17303273?token=92C8F7D12C1D65ACF58D9AD5050C27F528A1DC81FBF3AC2330781BB20FB0DC3F527044FA7787754578DC897B7F45038C&amp;originRegion=eu-west-1&amp;originCreation=20211011145522\">Reframing noncommunicable Diseases<\/a>\u201d, <i>The Lancet Global Health<\/i>, 2017.<\/td><\/tr>\r\n\r\n<tr class=\"footnotes_plugin_reference_row\"> <th scope=\"row\" class=\"footnote_plugin_index_combi pointer\"  onclick=\"footnote_moveToAnchor_12336_1('footnote_plugin_tooltip_12336_1_13');\"><a id=\"footnote_plugin_reference_12336_1_13\" class=\"footnote_backlink\"><span class=\"footnote_index_arrow\">&#8593;<\/span>13<\/a><\/th> <td class=\"footnote_plugin_text\">Catherine Cavalin, Micka\u00ebl Catinon, Odile Macchi, Michel Vincent et Paul-Andr\u00e9 Rosental, \u00ab\u00a0Expositions aux particules inorganiques : comment poser la question ?\u00a0\u00bb in Emmanuelle, Merckl\u00e9 Pierre (<i>dir.<\/i>), <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ined.fr\/fr\/publications\/editions\/grandes-enquetes\/un-panel-francais\/\">Un panel fran\u00e7ais. L\u2019\u00c9tude longitudinale par internet pour les sciences sociales (ELIPSS)<\/a>, 2021.<\/td><\/tr>\r\n\r\n <\/tbody> <\/table> <\/div><\/div><script type=\"text\/javascript\"> function footnote_expand_reference_container_12336_1() { jQuery('#footnote_references_container_12336_1').show(); jQuery('#footnote_reference_container_collapse_button_12336_1').text('\u2212'); } function footnote_collapse_reference_container_12336_1() { jQuery('#footnote_references_container_12336_1').hide(); jQuery('#footnote_reference_container_collapse_button_12336_1').text('+'); } function footnote_expand_collapse_reference_container_12336_1() { if (jQuery('#footnote_references_container_12336_1').is(':hidden')) { footnote_expand_reference_container_12336_1(); } else { footnote_collapse_reference_container_12336_1(); } } function footnote_moveToReference_12336_1(p_str_TargetID) { footnote_expand_reference_container_12336_1(); var l_obj_Target = jQuery('#' + p_str_TargetID); if (l_obj_Target.length) { jQuery( 'html, body' ).delay( 0 ); jQuery('html, body').animate({ scrollTop: l_obj_Target.offset().top - window.innerHeight * 0.2 }, 380); } } function footnote_moveToAnchor_12336_1(p_str_TargetID) { footnote_expand_reference_container_12336_1(); var l_obj_Target = jQuery('#' + p_str_TargetID); if (l_obj_Target.length) { jQuery( 'html, body' ).delay( 0 ); jQuery('html, body').animate({ scrollTop: l_obj_Target.offset().top - window.innerHeight * 0.2 }, 380); } }<\/script>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>par Catherine Cavalin, IRISSO &amp; LIEPP, et Paul-Andr\u00e9 Rosental, Centre d&rsquo;histoire Port\u00e9e et discussion de la transition \u00e9pid\u00e9miologique Depuis un demi-si\u00e8cle, le mod\u00e8le dit de<span class=\"excerpt-hellip\"> [\u2026]<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":12519,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[320,290],"tags":[80],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.sciencespo.fr\/research\/cogito\/home\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12336"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.sciencespo.fr\/research\/cogito\/home\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.sciencespo.fr\/research\/cogito\/home\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.sciencespo.fr\/research\/cogito\/home\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.sciencespo.fr\/research\/cogito\/home\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=12336"}],"version-history":[{"count":11,"href":"https:\/\/www.sciencespo.fr\/research\/cogito\/home\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12336\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":12598,"href":"https:\/\/www.sciencespo.fr\/research\/cogito\/home\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12336\/revisions\/12598"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.sciencespo.fr\/research\/cogito\/home\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/12519"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.sciencespo.fr\/research\/cogito\/home\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=12336"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.sciencespo.fr\/research\/cogito\/home\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=12336"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.sciencespo.fr\/research\/cogito\/home\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=12336"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}