{"id":11266,"date":"2021-03-16T14:00:19","date_gmt":"2021-03-16T12:00:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.sciencespo.fr\/research\/cogito\/home\/?p=11266"},"modified":"2021-03-16T16:23:25","modified_gmt":"2021-03-16T14:23:25","slug":"when-econometrics-sheds-light-on-the-history-of-social-relations","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.sciencespo.fr\/research\/cogito\/home\/when-econometrics-sheds-light-on-the-history-of-social-relations\/?lang=en","title":{"rendered":"When Econometrics Sheds Light on the History of Social Relations"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"attachment_10857\" style=\"width: 310px\" class=\"wp-caption alignleft\"><img aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-10857\" decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"wp-image-10857 size-medium\" src=\"https:\/\/www.sciencespo.fr\/research\/cogito\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/02\/commercial_agora_ephesus_05-300x200.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"200\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.sciencespo.fr\/research\/cogito\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/02\/commercial_agora_ephesus_05-300x200.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.sciencespo.fr\/research\/cogito\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/02\/commercial_agora_ephesus_05-1024x683.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/www.sciencespo.fr\/research\/cogito\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/02\/commercial_agora_ephesus_05-768x512.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.sciencespo.fr\/research\/cogito\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/02\/commercial_agora_ephesus_05-1536x1025.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/www.sciencespo.fr\/research\/cogito\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/02\/commercial_agora_ephesus_05-219x146.jpg 219w, https:\/\/www.sciencespo.fr\/research\/cogito\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/02\/commercial_agora_ephesus_05-50x33.jpg 50w, https:\/\/www.sciencespo.fr\/research\/cogito\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/02\/commercial_agora_ephesus_05-112x75.jpg 112w, https:\/\/www.sciencespo.fr\/research\/cogito\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/02\/commercial_agora_ephesus_05.jpg 1800w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><p id=\"caption-attachment-10857\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Commercial Agora in Ephesus. Cr\u00e9dits image : Turkish Archaeological News. CC BY-NC-ND 3.0<\/p><\/div>\n<p>Applying recently developed econometric methods to analyse trade flows in Antiquity may seem bold. It is what <a href=\"https:\/\/sites.google.com\/site\/thomaschaney\/cv?authuser=0#h.p_H_lcc69u7CuY\">Thomas Chaney<\/a>, a researcher in the Department of Economics, has been doing with the help of archaeologists. The research has yielded compelling results.<\/p>\n<p>Given this successful approach, why not apply it to other social issues that appear to be far removed from econometrics? This is the subject of new research that Thomas Chaney is conducting with support from the European Research Council<span class=\"footnote_referrer\"><a role=\"button\" tabindex=\"0\" onclick=\"footnote_moveToReference_11266_1('footnote_plugin_reference_11266_1_1');\" onkeypress=\"footnote_moveToReference_11266_1('footnote_plugin_reference_11266_1_1');\" ><sup id=\"footnote_plugin_tooltip_11266_1_1\" class=\"footnote_plugin_tooltip_text\">(1)<\/sup><\/a><span id=\"footnote_plugin_tooltip_text_11266_1_1\" class=\"footnote_tooltip\"><a href=\"https:\/\/cordis.europa.eu\/project\/id\/884847\">Historical Migrations, Trade, and Growth<\/a>, European Research Council Advanced Grant<\/span><\/span><script type=\"text\/javascript\"> jQuery('#footnote_plugin_tooltip_11266_1_1').tooltip({ tip: '#footnote_plugin_tooltip_text_11266_1_1', tipClass: 'footnote_tooltip', effect: 'fade', predelay: 0, fadeInSpeed: 200, delay: 400, fadeOutSpeed: 200, position: 'top right', relative: true, offset: [10, 10], });<\/script>. His goal is to study the economic and technological impacts of the emergence of cities, and in particular the side-by-side living of the \u2018natives\u2019 and foreigners residing in them.<\/p>\n<h5>Your first project consisted of researching cities of the Assyrian kingdom that disappeared 4,000 years ago. You used a very contemporary econometric method to analyse trade flows. What were the findings?<\/h5>\n<p>Thomas Chaney: The gravity model<span class=\"footnote_referrer\"><a role=\"button\" tabindex=\"0\" onclick=\"footnote_moveToReference_11266_1('footnote_plugin_reference_11266_1_2');\" onkeypress=\"footnote_moveToReference_11266_1('footnote_plugin_reference_11266_1_2');\" ><sup id=\"footnote_plugin_tooltip_11266_1_2\" class=\"footnote_plugin_tooltip_text\">(2)<\/sup><\/a><span id=\"footnote_plugin_tooltip_text_11266_1_2\" class=\"footnote_tooltip\">Thomas Chaney, <a class=\"XqQF9c\" href=\"https:\/\/drive.google.com\/open?id=1ZVI_SqsDCKPRSVgyFQH6xCH564ABBNp4\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">The Gravity Equation in International Trade: An Explanation<\/a>, <em>Journal of Political Economy <\/em>\u00a92018, University of Chicago<\/span><\/span><script type=\"text\/javascript\"> jQuery('#footnote_plugin_tooltip_11266_1_2').tooltip({ tip: '#footnote_plugin_tooltip_text_11266_1_2', tipClass: 'footnote_tooltip', effect: 'fade', predelay: 0, fadeInSpeed: 200, delay: 400, fadeOutSpeed: 200, position: 'top right', relative: true, offset: [10, 10], });<\/script> posits that trade flows between two countries or two cities are proportional to their size, and inversely proportional to the distance between them. In fact, the foundation of this gravity model that perfectly applies to contemporary trade is the idea that merchants, firms, and consumers exploit arbitrage opportunities. It claims that if a good can be found in a foreign country at a cost below the local cost, after accounting for transportation costs, it is profitable to import it.<\/p>\n<div id=\"attachment_10859\" style=\"width: 277px\" class=\"wp-caption alignright\"><img aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-10859\" decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-10859\" src=\"https:\/\/www.sciencespo.fr\/research\/cogito\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/02\/Ashur-nasir-pal_II_throne-267x300.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"267\" height=\"300\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.sciencespo.fr\/research\/cogito\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/02\/Ashur-nasir-pal_II_throne-267x300.png 267w, https:\/\/www.sciencespo.fr\/research\/cogito\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/02\/Ashur-nasir-pal_II_throne-130x146.png 130w, https:\/\/www.sciencespo.fr\/research\/cogito\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/02\/Ashur-nasir-pal_II_throne-44x50.png 44w, https:\/\/www.sciencespo.fr\/research\/cogito\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/02\/Ashur-nasir-pal_II_throne-67x75.png 67w, https:\/\/www.sciencespo.fr\/research\/cogito\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/02\/Ashur-nasir-pal_II_throne.png 512w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 267px) 100vw, 267px\" \/><p id=\"caption-attachment-10859\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Ashur-nasir-pal II (883 \u00e0 859 bef. J.-C.) sitting on the throne. Domaine public.<\/p><\/div>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">This is exactly what Assyrian merchants did: they crisscrossed their region of the world searching for profit opportunities; they had a network of agents, spread across the cities, who kept them informed of price changes in local markets; caravan leaders followed an optimal route through the Anatolian mountains\u2026 In short, their behaviour was very similar to that of contemporary players.<\/span><\/p>\n<h5>This approach helped you locate Sumerian cities engulfed in the sand for 4 millennia?<\/h5>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Thomas Chaney :<\/span>We were unable to locate the cities down to a kilometre radius, but our results were quite close to those of archaeological research. To carry out this work, we analysed thousands of clay tablets that merchants exchanged at the time, and identified the information on trade flows. By combining these data and the gravity model, we were able to form conjectures on the location of these lost cities. A highly simplified gravity model allowed us to translate a trade flow into a physical distance. Then all we needed was data on the flows between at least three known cities, and a lost city, to \u2018guess\u2019 by triangulation where the lost city was located. In fact, it\u2019s the same way the GPS receiver in our smartphones works, using the distance in relation to three satellites to \u2018guess\u2019 where we are.<\/p>\n<h5>Did these results convince you of the feasibility and relevance of applying this method to other questions rarely addressed this way in economics?<\/h5>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Thomas Chaney: Yes, because thanks to this approach, we were also able to estimate the relative sizes of ancient cities, albeit with large margins of error. Our preliminary analyses suggest that being at a crossroads is a determining factor in a city\u2019s prosperity. This observation suggests that direct, interpersonal interactions between individuals from diverse backgrounds are at the heart of urban growth, and perhaps economic growth.<br \/>\n<\/span><\/p>\n<div id=\"attachment_10861\" style=\"width: 310px\" class=\"wp-caption alignleft\"><img aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-10861\" decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-10861\" src=\"https:\/\/www.sciencespo.fr\/research\/cogito\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/02\/512px-Sales_contract_Shuruppak_Louvre_AO3766-300x284.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"284\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.sciencespo.fr\/research\/cogito\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/02\/512px-Sales_contract_Shuruppak_Louvre_AO3766-300x284.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.sciencespo.fr\/research\/cogito\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/02\/512px-Sales_contract_Shuruppak_Louvre_AO3766-154x146.jpg 154w, https:\/\/www.sciencespo.fr\/research\/cogito\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/02\/512px-Sales_contract_Shuruppak_Louvre_AO3766-50x47.jpg 50w, https:\/\/www.sciencespo.fr\/research\/cogito\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/02\/512px-Sales_contract_Shuruppak_Louvre_AO3766-79x75.jpg 79w, https:\/\/www.sciencespo.fr\/research\/cogito\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/02\/512px-Sales_contract_Shuruppak_Louvre_AO3766.jpg 512w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><p id=\"caption-attachment-10861\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Sumerian contract: selling of a field and a house. Shuruppak, pre-cuneiform script. vers 2600 av. J.-C. Mus\u00e9e du Louvre, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons<\/p><\/div>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Moreover, this work on Bronze Age trade demonstrated the feasibility of collecting historical data, even very old data, and of analysing this data using modern theories and techniques, even if this required much caution and work!<\/span><\/p>\n<h5>Your new work aims to test the hypothesis that direct contact between individuals affects their preferences and the technologies they use. How did this idea come about?<\/h5>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Thomas Chaney: Two complementary paths brought me to this idea.<br \/>\n<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">First, my research on Bronze Age trade suggests that direct, interpersonal exchanges played a crucial role in the emergence of urban trade centres.<br \/>\nSecond, my research on the impact of immigration on the structure of multinational firms suggests that the presence in a city of descendants of immigrants from a certain country facilitates the flow of information between that city and that country. The natural next step is to test the hypothesis that interactions with \u2018neighbours\u2019 from diverse origins change perceptions of foreign cultures.<\/span><\/p>\n<h5>So you are studying the role of migration in economic growth and its acceptance by native populations<\/h5>\n<div id=\"attachment_10865\" style=\"width: 188px\" class=\"wp-caption alignright\"><a href=\"https:\/\/gallica.bnf.fr\/ark:\/12148\/bpt6k30407767.image\"><img aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-10865\" decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"wp-image-10865 size-medium\" src=\"https:\/\/www.sciencespo.fr\/research\/cogito\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/02\/Histoire_de_la_filiation_et_...Brotonne_Frederic_bpt6k30407767_15-178x300.jpeg\" alt=\"\" width=\"178\" height=\"300\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.sciencespo.fr\/research\/cogito\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/02\/Histoire_de_la_filiation_et_...Brotonne_Frederic_bpt6k30407767_15-178x300.jpeg 178w, https:\/\/www.sciencespo.fr\/research\/cogito\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/02\/Histoire_de_la_filiation_et_...Brotonne_Frederic_bpt6k30407767_15-609x1024.jpeg 609w, https:\/\/www.sciencespo.fr\/research\/cogito\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/02\/Histoire_de_la_filiation_et_...Brotonne_Frederic_bpt6k30407767_15-768x1292.jpeg 768w, https:\/\/www.sciencespo.fr\/research\/cogito\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/02\/Histoire_de_la_filiation_et_...Brotonne_Frederic_bpt6k30407767_15-913x1536.jpeg 913w, https:\/\/www.sciencespo.fr\/research\/cogito\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/02\/Histoire_de_la_filiation_et_...Brotonne_Frederic_bpt6k30407767_15-87x146.jpeg 87w, https:\/\/www.sciencespo.fr\/research\/cogito\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/02\/Histoire_de_la_filiation_et_...Brotonne_Frederic_bpt6k30407767_15-30x50.jpeg 30w, https:\/\/www.sciencespo.fr\/research\/cogito\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/02\/Histoire_de_la_filiation_et_...Brotonne_Frederic_bpt6k30407767_15-45x75.jpeg 45w, https:\/\/www.sciencespo.fr\/research\/cogito\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/02\/Histoire_de_la_filiation_et_...Brotonne_Frederic_bpt6k30407767_15.jpeg 931w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 178px) 100vw, 178px\" \/><\/a><p id=\"caption-attachment-10865\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Histoire de la filiation et des migrations des peuples, par Fr\u00e9d\u00e9ric de Brotonne (1797-1865). Source : Gallica, BNF<\/p><\/div>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Thomas Chaney: <\/span>Yes, today we are experiencing growing international migration. It appears that economists reflexively believe that migration generates positive phenomena: it enables better global allocation, and gives more freedom to individuals who can then make the best possible choices for themselves and their neighbours. However, migration is also associated with sometimes violent rejection in host countries. It is therefore important to understand the mechanisms through which immigration affects host countries.<br \/>\n<span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">An economist can help address this question by trying to identify and quantify the causal effect of immigration\u2009\u2013\u2009that is, how immigration helps change host societies, and not the other way around\u2009\u2013\u2009how these societies affect immigration\u2009\u2013\u2009that is, how they change their host societies, and quantifying them.<br \/>\nMost of the work on immigration in my project is based on historical migration shocks. These key periods enable the isolation of some of the variations in migratory flows, or more precisely the parts that we can relatively confidently label as quasi-random, i.e. due to chance or accident. Isolating these variations is a crucial step in identifying the causal direction between immigration and growth, and changes in attitudes. The accumulation of historical events enables such progress.<\/span><\/p>\n<h5>A second topic, which also encompasses migration and multicultural issues, focuses more specifically on the development of cities. How do you intend to approach these issues?<\/h5>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Thomas Chaney: <\/span>Once again, for an economist, one of the main problems when confronted with empirical data is to identify a causal effect. The emergence and development of cities is a complex issue, because the cities of the distant past affect the cities of yesteryear, which in turn affect the cities of today. I am using two very different historical contexts in this project in the hope of minimising this problem of endogenous city dynamics.<br \/>\nIn the first one, I study the very first cities, which emerged during the Neolithic revolution. To extremely simplify, the starting point is a world without any cities\u2009\u2013\u2009a \u2018blank page\u2019\u2009\u2013\u2009and the period ends with the emergence of a few cities. In the second, I look at the very particular context of southwestern France in the 13th century, with the creation, ex nihilo, of new cities: the bastides. Unlike the Neolithic period, this is not a \u2018blank page\u2019.<\/p>\n<div id=\"attachment_10870\" style=\"width: 310px\" class=\"wp-caption alignleft\"><img aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-10870\" decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-10870\" src=\"https:\/\/www.sciencespo.fr\/research\/cogito\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/02\/640px-Eymet_place_arcades_13-300x225.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"225\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.sciencespo.fr\/research\/cogito\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/02\/640px-Eymet_place_arcades_13-300x225.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.sciencespo.fr\/research\/cogito\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/02\/640px-Eymet_place_arcades_13-195x146.jpg 195w, https:\/\/www.sciencespo.fr\/research\/cogito\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/02\/640px-Eymet_place_arcades_13-50x38.jpg 50w, https:\/\/www.sciencespo.fr\/research\/cogito\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/02\/640px-Eymet_place_arcades_13-100x75.jpg 100w, https:\/\/www.sciencespo.fr\/research\/cogito\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/02\/640px-Eymet_place_arcades_13.jpg 497w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><p id=\"caption-attachment-10870\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Arcades de la place Gambetta, Eymet, Dordogne. Cr\u00e9dits image : P\u00e8re Igor, CC BY-SA 3.0 via Wikimedia Commons<\/p><\/div>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u00a0However, here, the decision to create a town is partly arbitrary and attributable to various regional authorities: kings of France and England, churches, counts of Toulouse, and local lords. While their foundation is arbitrary, the evolution of these bastides in the decades and centuries that followed was more organic. This provides a laboratory of sorts to study urban evolution.<\/span><\/p>\n<h5>You also study technical progress and the diffusion of technologies over very long periods of time.<\/h5>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Thomas Chaney: One of the objectives of this project is to study the drivers of technical progress over the very long run.<br \/>\n<\/span>To do this, my team and I are systematically gathering and analysing objects housed in art and history museums around the world. These collections include hundreds of millions of objects, skilfully catalogued by curators, covering thousands of years and the entire surface of the globe. Using modern data science, machine learning, and natural language analysis techniques, we can automatically identify the place and date of the emergence of new techniques, and then track their diffusion through space and time.<br \/>\n<span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Of course, curators make fateful choices to acquire a particular work; these choices reflect both the colonial history and associated looting, and the tastes of visitors during a particular era. This is why we must not only diversify our sources, by collecting information from museums on all continents, but also use statistical tools to correct possible biases.<br \/>\n<\/span>Once these steps have been taken, we will be able to test modern theories of economic growth and the diffusion of technical progress, not just over the past few decades, but over millennia.<\/p>\n<pre><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/sites.google.com\/site\/thomaschaney\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Thomas Chaney<\/a> <\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">is a university professor in the Department of Economics. His priority research areas include international trade, networks, and economic and financial history. In 2023, his research project \u2018Firm Networks, Trade and Growth\u2019 was awarded the highly selective \u2018Starting Grant\u2019 from the European Research Council. His current research project on \u2018<a href=\"https:\/\/cordis.europa.eu\/project\/id\/884847\">Historical Migrations, Trade, and Growth\u2019<\/a> received an \u2018Advanced Grant\u2019 from the European Research Council.<\/span><\/pre>\n<p style=\"text-align: right;\"><em>Interview by H\u00e9l\u00e8ne Naudet, direction scientifique<\/em><\/p>\n<p><b><div class=\"idea_box\"><div class=\"icon\"><i class=\"icon-lamp\"><\/i><\/div><div class=\"desc\"> Supplementary Bibliography<\/b><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Gojko Barjamovic; Thomas Chaney; Kerem Cosar; and Ali Hortacsu &#8211; <\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/academic.oup.com\/qje\/article\/134\/3\/1455\/5420484\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Trade, Merchants and the Lost Cities of the Bronze Age<\/a>, <em>Quarterly Journal of Economics<\/em><\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, August 2019<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Konrad Burchardi; Thomas Chaney; and Tarek Hassan &#8211; <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/drive.google.com\/open?id=1YQdrvXVe2IUiMSyug32DQUSLClZF15Ix\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Migrants, Ancestors and Foreign Investments<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, <em>Review of Economic Studies<\/em>, July 2019<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Konrad Burchardi; Thomas Chaney; Tarek Hassan; Lisa Tarquinio; and Stephen Terry &#8211; <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/drive.google.com\/open?id=1AbZeex6bb12cZmL6m3Z3iqXr0Yx24VSV\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Immigration, Innovation and Growth<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, <em>CEPR DP No. 14719<\/em>, April 2020<br \/>\n<\/span><\/li>\n<li><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Leonardo Bursztyn; Thomas Chaney; Tarek Hassan; and Aakaash Rao &#8211; <\/span><\/i><a href=\"https:\/\/drive.google.com\/file\/d\/1hSE-tcC2nJ-iRR2zEwx3q6qYlMt5ocZi\/view?usp=sharing\"><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The Immigrant Next Door: Exposure, Prejudice, and Altruism<\/span><\/i><\/a><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> , <\/span><\/i><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">NBER WP No. 28448<\/span><\/i><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, January 2021<\/span><\/i><b><\/div><\/div>\n<\/b><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<div class=\"speaker-mute footnotes_reference_container\"> <div class=\"footnote_container_prepare\"><p><span role=\"button\" tabindex=\"0\" class=\"footnote_reference_container_label pointer\" onclick=\"footnote_expand_collapse_reference_container_11266_1();\">Notes<\/span><span role=\"button\" tabindex=\"0\" class=\"footnote_reference_container_collapse_button\" style=\"display: none;\" onclick=\"footnote_expand_collapse_reference_container_11266_1();\">[<a id=\"footnote_reference_container_collapse_button_11266_1\">+<\/a>]<\/span><\/p><\/div> <div id=\"footnote_references_container_11266_1\" style=\"\"><table class=\"footnotes_table footnote-reference-container\"><caption class=\"accessibility\">Notes<\/caption> <tbody> \r\n\r\n<tr class=\"footnotes_plugin_reference_row\"> <th scope=\"row\" class=\"footnote_plugin_index_combi pointer\"  onclick=\"footnote_moveToAnchor_11266_1('footnote_plugin_tooltip_11266_1_1');\"><a id=\"footnote_plugin_reference_11266_1_1\" class=\"footnote_backlink\"><span class=\"footnote_index_arrow\">&#8593;<\/span>1<\/a><\/th> <td class=\"footnote_plugin_text\"><a href=\"https:\/\/cordis.europa.eu\/project\/id\/884847\">Historical Migrations, Trade, and Growth<\/a>, European Research Council Advanced Grant<\/td><\/tr>\r\n\r\n<tr class=\"footnotes_plugin_reference_row\"> <th scope=\"row\" class=\"footnote_plugin_index_combi pointer\"  onclick=\"footnote_moveToAnchor_11266_1('footnote_plugin_tooltip_11266_1_2');\"><a id=\"footnote_plugin_reference_11266_1_2\" class=\"footnote_backlink\"><span class=\"footnote_index_arrow\">&#8593;<\/span>2<\/a><\/th> <td class=\"footnote_plugin_text\">Thomas Chaney, <a class=\"XqQF9c\" href=\"https:\/\/drive.google.com\/open?id=1ZVI_SqsDCKPRSVgyFQH6xCH564ABBNp4\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">The Gravity Equation in International Trade: An Explanation<\/a>, <em>Journal of Political Economy <\/em>\u00a92018, University of Chicago<\/td><\/tr>\r\n\r\n <\/tbody> <\/table> <\/div><\/div><script type=\"text\/javascript\"> function footnote_expand_reference_container_11266_1() { jQuery('#footnote_references_container_11266_1').show(); 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