{"id":10246,"date":"2020-11-16T11:30:07","date_gmt":"2020-11-16T09:30:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.sciencespo.fr\/research\/cogito\/home\/?p=10246"},"modified":"2022-05-24T16:46:54","modified_gmt":"2022-05-24T14:46:54","slug":"migration-salaire-et-emploi-un-apercu-de-la-recherche","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.sciencespo.fr\/research\/cogito\/home\/migration-salaire-et-emploi-un-apercu-de-la-recherche\/","title":{"rendered":"Migration, salaire et emploi : un aper\u00e7u de la recherche"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: right;\"><em>par <a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencespo.fr\/ceri\/fr\/cerispire-user\/7130\/1612\">H\u00e9l\u00e8ne Thiollet<\/a> et <a href=\"https:\/\/floswald.github.io\/\">Florian Oswald<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n<div id=\"attachment_10297\" style=\"width: 310px\" class=\"wp-caption alignleft\"><img aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-10297\" decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-10297\" src=\"https:\/\/www.sciencespo.fr\/research\/cogito\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/11\/shutterstock_616326425-300x225.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"225\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.sciencespo.fr\/research\/cogito\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/11\/shutterstock_616326425-300x225.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.sciencespo.fr\/research\/cogito\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/11\/shutterstock_616326425-768x576.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.sciencespo.fr\/research\/cogito\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/11\/shutterstock_616326425-195x146.jpg 195w, https:\/\/www.sciencespo.fr\/research\/cogito\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/11\/shutterstock_616326425-50x38.jpg 50w, https:\/\/www.sciencespo.fr\/research\/cogito\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/11\/shutterstock_616326425-100x75.jpg 100w, https:\/\/www.sciencespo.fr\/research\/cogito\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/11\/shutterstock_616326425.jpg 800w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><p id=\"caption-attachment-10297\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">\u00a9 Shutterstock<\/p><\/div>\n<p>Traditionnellement, l\u2019\u00e9conomie du travail postule que les salaires sont d\u00e9termin\u00e9s par l\u2019offre et la demande. Selon cette th\u00e9orie, \u00e0 demande constante, l\u2019\u00e9migration doit se traduire par une augmentation des salaires dans les pays d\u2019origine (diminution de l\u2019offre de main-d\u2019\u0153uvre). Elle doit aussi entra\u00eener une diminution des salaires dans les pays d\u2019accueil (augmentation de l\u2019offre de main-d\u2019\u0153uvre). Une vision malthusienne de l\u2019\u00e9conomie part \u00e9galement du principe que l\u2019arriv\u00e9e de main d\u2019\u0153uvre sur un march\u00e9 de l\u2019emploi contraint laisse certains travailleurs sans emploi ou chasse de leur emploi ceux qui en avaient un. L\u2019opinion selon laquelle l\u2019immigration fait diminuer les salaires des autochtones et g\u00e9n\u00e8re du ch\u00f4mage est largement r\u00e9pandue.<br \/>\nCependant une th\u00e9orie concurrente sugg\u00e8re que les immigrants, consommant dans leur pays de destination, donnent lieu \u00e0 une augmentation de la demande locale, et\/ou que la production locale se d\u00e9veloppe gr\u00e2ce \u00e0 cette main-d\u2019\u0153uvre suppl\u00e9mentaire.<br \/>\nPour d\u00e9partager ces approches, on peut examiner ce que nous disent les donn\u00e9es empiriques sur ce qui se passe \u00e0 des \u00e9chelles locales.<\/p>\n<h4>Des causalit\u00e9s difficiles \u00e0 \u00e9tablir<\/h4>\n<p>Certaines \u00e9tudes montrent que la courbe des salaires est conforme \u00e0 ce qu\u2019avance le premier type de th\u00e9orie : l\u2019immigration entra\u00eene une baisse des salaires de 3 \u00e0 4 % pour une augmentation de 10 % des travailleurs d\u2019un groupe de comp\u00e9tences-exp\u00e9riences donn\u00e9<span class=\"footnote_referrer\"><a role=\"button\" tabindex=\"0\" onclick=\"footnote_moveToReference_10246_1('footnote_plugin_reference_10246_1_1');\" onkeypress=\"footnote_moveToReference_10246_1('footnote_plugin_reference_10246_1_1');\" ><sup id=\"footnote_plugin_tooltip_10246_1_1\" class=\"footnote_plugin_tooltip_text\">(1)<\/sup><\/a><span id=\"footnote_plugin_tooltip_text_10246_1_1\" class=\"footnote_tooltip\">George J. Borjas, \u00ab\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.google.com\/url?q=https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1162\/003355303322552810&amp;sa=D&amp;ust=1605455852545000&amp;usg=AOvVaw2KeyKZuoaoOCj0Cd-n99Wf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">The Labor Demand Curve is Downward Sloping: Reexamining the Impact of Immigration on the Labor Market<\/a>\u00ab\u00a0, <em>The Quarterly Journal of Economics<\/em>, November 2003.<\/span><\/span><script type=\"text\/javascript\"> jQuery('#footnote_plugin_tooltip_10246_1_1').tooltip({ tip: '#footnote_plugin_tooltip_text_10246_1_1', tipClass: 'footnote_tooltip', effect: 'fade', predelay: 0, fadeInSpeed: 200, delay: 400, fadeOutSpeed: 200, position: 'top right', relative: true, offset: [10, 10], });<\/script>.<\/p>\n<p>Mais toutes les \u00e9tudes ne conduisent pas au m\u00eame r\u00e9sultat : en r\u00e9alit\u00e9 les \u00e9conomistes ont du mal \u00e0 d\u00e9terminer l\u2019impact de la migration sur les salaires ou le ch\u00f4mage, tant dans les pays d\u2019origine que dans les pays d\u2019accueil. Pourquoi cela ?<\/p>\n<p>Les liens de causalit\u00e9 sont difficiles \u00e0 \u00e9tablir, car les migrants se rendent souvent dans des pays d\u2019accueil o\u00f9 les conditions du march\u00e9 du travail sont d\u00e9j\u00e0 bonnes, voire en progr\u00e8s. Ainsi, si les salaires ne diminuent pas avec l\u2019arriv\u00e9e des migrants et si le ch\u00f4mage n\u2019augmente pas, on peut formuler deux hypoth\u00e8ses : soit les conditions du march\u00e9 en question sont suffisamment bonnes pour qu\u2019il ne soit pas touch\u00e9 par la migration, soit l\u2019am\u00e9lioration des conditions, d\u00e9j\u00e0 en cours sur ce march\u00e9, en compense l\u2019impact. Dans tous les cas, il semble que dans un milieu donn\u00e9 le contexte et la dynamique du march\u00e9 conditionnent l\u2019impact de l\u2019immigration.<\/p>\n<div id=\"attachment_10299\" style=\"width: 310px\" class=\"wp-caption alignright\"><img aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-10299\" decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"wp-image-10299 size-medium\" src=\"https:\/\/www.sciencespo.fr\/research\/cogito\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/11\/sign-hired-and-fired-300x225.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"225\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.sciencespo.fr\/research\/cogito\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/11\/sign-hired-and-fired-300x225.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.sciencespo.fr\/research\/cogito\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/11\/sign-hired-and-fired-1024x768.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/www.sciencespo.fr\/research\/cogito\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/11\/sign-hired-and-fired-768x576.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.sciencespo.fr\/research\/cogito\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/11\/sign-hired-and-fired-1536x1152.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/www.sciencespo.fr\/research\/cogito\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/11\/sign-hired-and-fired-2048x1536.jpg 2048w, https:\/\/www.sciencespo.fr\/research\/cogito\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/11\/sign-hired-and-fired-195x146.jpg 195w, https:\/\/www.sciencespo.fr\/research\/cogito\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/11\/sign-hired-and-fired-50x38.jpg 50w, https:\/\/www.sciencespo.fr\/research\/cogito\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/11\/sign-hired-and-fired-100x75.jpg 100w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><p id=\"caption-attachment-10299\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">\u00a9 Public Domain \/ pixy.org<\/p><\/div>\n<p>Par ailleurs, les r\u00e9sultats varient selon le type de donn\u00e9es utilis\u00e9es (micro\u00e9conomiques ou macro\u00e9conomiques, par exemple), l\u2019\u00e9chelle prise en compte (urbaine, nationale, internationale), la p\u00e9riode consid\u00e9r\u00e9e (la p\u00e9riode et\/ou la dur\u00e9e, i.e le court ou le long terme) et le mod\u00e8le th\u00e9orique appliqu\u00e9.<\/p>\n<p>Des donn\u00e9es empiriques relatives aux pays de l\u2019OCDE ont r\u00e9cemment montr\u00e9 que l\u2019effet global de l\u2019immigration sur les salaires moyens des autochtones est soit neutre soit l\u00e9g\u00e8rement positif et que l\u2019immigration n\u2019a pas d\u2019impact global sur l\u2019emploi des autochtones. Mais ces r\u00e9sultats doivent \u00eatre affin\u00e9s : en examinant l\u2019impact diff\u00e9rentiel sur la r\u00e9partition des r\u00e9mun\u00e9rations, on observe des effets n\u00e9gatifs pour les travailleurs peu qualifi\u00e9s et des effets positifs pour les travailleurs hautement qualifi\u00e9s, et toute baisse des salaires et de l\u2019emploi \u00e0 court terme est inverse \u00e0 long terme o\u00f9 l\u2019on constate une hausse des salaires et de l\u2019emploi.<\/p>\n<h4>Un impact diff\u00e9renci\u00e9 en fonction des niveaux d\u2019emploi<\/h4>\n<p>L\u2019exemple du Royaume-Uni sur la p\u00e9riode 1983-2000 montre, du point de vue statistique, que l\u2019immigration n\u2019a pas eu d\u2019effets significatifs sur les r\u00e9sultats globaux pour l\u2019emploi des travailleurs n\u00e9s au Royaume-Uni<span class=\"footnote_referrer\"><a role=\"button\" tabindex=\"0\" onclick=\"footnote_moveToReference_10246_1('footnote_plugin_reference_10246_1_2');\" onkeypress=\"footnote_moveToReference_10246_1('footnote_plugin_reference_10246_1_2');\" ><sup id=\"footnote_plugin_tooltip_10246_1_2\" class=\"footnote_plugin_tooltip_text\">(2)<\/sup><\/a><span id=\"footnote_plugin_tooltip_text_10246_1_2\" class=\"footnote_tooltip\">Christian Dustmann, Tommaso Frattini and Ian Preston, \u00ab\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.google.com\/url?q=https:\/\/econpapers.repec.org\/article\/ouprestud\/v_3a80_3ay_3a2013_3ai_3a1_3ap_3a145-173.htm&amp;sa=D&amp;ust=1605455852532000&amp;usg=AOvVaw3J1Bv60kGWvl5DvZMJYxfU\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">The Effect of Immigration along the Distribution of Wages<\/a>\u00ab\u00a0, <em>Review of Economic Studies<\/em>, 2013.<\/span><\/span><script type=\"text\/javascript\"> jQuery('#footnote_plugin_tooltip_10246_1_2').tooltip({ tip: '#footnote_plugin_tooltip_text_10246_1_2', tipClass: 'footnote_tooltip', effect: 'fade', predelay: 0, fadeInSpeed: 200, delay: 400, fadeOutSpeed: 200, position: 'top right', relative: true, offset: [10, 10], });<\/script>. D\u2019autres \u00e9tudes men\u00e9es au Royaume-Uni et cherchant \u00e0 mesurer l\u2019\u00e9volution du march\u00e9 du travail li\u00e9e \u00e0 la crise \u00e9conomique de 2008, confirment que l&rsquo;arriv\u00e9e de migrants n\u2019a pas eu d\u2019impact sur le ch\u00f4mage global des autochtones<span class=\"footnote_referrer\"><a role=\"button\" tabindex=\"0\" onclick=\"footnote_moveToReference_10246_1('footnote_plugin_reference_10246_1_3');\" onkeypress=\"footnote_moveToReference_10246_1('footnote_plugin_reference_10246_1_3');\" ><sup id=\"footnote_plugin_tooltip_10246_1_3\" class=\"footnote_plugin_tooltip_text\">(3)<\/sup><\/a><span id=\"footnote_plugin_tooltip_text_10246_1_3\" class=\"footnote_tooltip\">Paolo Lucchino, Chiara Rosazza Bondibene and Jonathan Portes,\u00a0\u00bb<a href=\"https:\/\/www.niesr.ac.uk\/sites\/default\/files\/publications\/dp386.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Examining the relationship between immigration and unemployment using National Insurance Number registration data<\/a>\u00ab\u00a0, <em>NIESR Discussion Paper.<\/em><\/span><\/span><script type=\"text\/javascript\"> jQuery('#footnote_plugin_tooltip_10246_1_3').tooltip({ tip: '#footnote_plugin_tooltip_text_10246_1_3', tipClass: 'footnote_tooltip', effect: 'fade', predelay: 0, fadeInSpeed: 200, delay: 400, fadeOutSpeed: 200, position: 'top right', relative: true, offset: [10, 10], });<\/script>.<\/p>\n<div id=\"attachment_10289\" style=\"width: 310px\" class=\"wp-caption alignleft\"><img aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-10289\" decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"wp-image-10289 size-medium\" src=\"https:\/\/www.sciencespo.fr\/research\/cogito\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/11\/olumide-bamgbelu-edUFT7_OHQ0-unsplash1-300x200.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"200\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.sciencespo.fr\/research\/cogito\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/11\/olumide-bamgbelu-edUFT7_OHQ0-unsplash1-300x200.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.sciencespo.fr\/research\/cogito\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/11\/olumide-bamgbelu-edUFT7_OHQ0-unsplash1-219x146.jpg 219w, https:\/\/www.sciencespo.fr\/research\/cogito\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/11\/olumide-bamgbelu-edUFT7_OHQ0-unsplash1-50x33.jpg 50w, https:\/\/www.sciencespo.fr\/research\/cogito\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/11\/olumide-bamgbelu-edUFT7_OHQ0-unsplash1-112x75.jpg 112w, https:\/\/www.sciencespo.fr\/research\/cogito\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/11\/olumide-bamgbelu-edUFT7_OHQ0-unsplash1.jpg 640w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><p id=\"caption-attachment-10289\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Photo \u00a9 <a href=\"https:\/\/unsplash.com\/brandbymide?utm_source=unsplash&amp;utm_medium=referral&amp;utm_content=creditCopyText\">Olumide Bamgbelu<\/a> on <a href=\"https:\/\/unsplash.com\/@brandbymide?utm_source=unsplash&amp;utm_medium=referral&amp;utm_content=creditCopyText\">Unsplash<\/a><\/p><\/div>\n<p>Mais si l\u2019on regarde plus pr\u00e9cis\u00e9ment &#8211; en se penchant sur la r\u00e9alit\u00e9 et non simplement sur les statistiques globales &#8211; on constate qu\u2019\u00e0 l\u2019arriv\u00e9e des immigrants les salaires des travailleurs autochtones les plus pauvres diminuent alors que ceux des travailleurs autochtones moins pauvres s\u2019am\u00e9liorent. Ce ph\u00e9nom\u00e8ne fait \u00e9cho \u00e0 un ph\u00e9nom\u00e8ne important : la qualit\u00e9 de l\u2019emploi des migrants se d\u00e9grade consid\u00e9rablement \u00e0 leur arriv\u00e9e relativement aux emplois qu\u2019ils occupaient dans leur pays d\u2019origine. G\u00e9n\u00e9ralement embauch\u00e9s au-dessous de leur niveau de comp\u00e9tence, ils sont surrepr\u00e9sent\u00e9s en bas de l\u2019\u00e9chelle. Un d\u00e9calage qui explique l\u2019impact sur les salaires des travailleurs autochtones les plus pauvres.<br \/>\nUne autre \u00e9tude, portant sur une multiplicit\u00e9 de cas<span class=\"footnote_referrer\"><a role=\"button\" tabindex=\"0\" onclick=\"footnote_moveToReference_10246_1('footnote_plugin_reference_10246_1_4');\" onkeypress=\"footnote_moveToReference_10246_1('footnote_plugin_reference_10246_1_4');\" ><sup id=\"footnote_plugin_tooltip_10246_1_4\" class=\"footnote_plugin_tooltip_text\">(4)<\/sup><\/a><span id=\"footnote_plugin_tooltip_text_10246_1_4\" class=\"footnote_tooltip\">George J. Borjas and Joan Monras, 2016, \u00ab\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.google.com\/url?q=https:\/\/econpapers.repec.org\/paper\/cmfwpaper\/wp2016_5f1616.htm&amp;sa=D&amp;ust=1605455852540000&amp;usg=AOvVaw2K9iynPTlDNTmHOIk59YXq\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">The Labor Market Consequences of Refugee Supply Shocks<\/a>\u00ab\u00a0, <em>Working Papers, CEMFI<\/em>.<\/span><\/span><script type=\"text\/javascript\"> jQuery('#footnote_plugin_tooltip_10246_1_4').tooltip({ tip: '#footnote_plugin_tooltip_text_10246_1_4', tipClass: 'footnote_tooltip', effect: 'fade', predelay: 0, fadeInSpeed: 200, delay: 400, fadeOutSpeed: 200, position: 'top right', relative: true, offset: [10, 10], });<\/script> a confirm\u00e9 cet effet diff\u00e9renci\u00e9 des afflux de r\u00e9fugi\u00e9s sur les salaires ; n\u00e9gatif sur les bas salaires et positif sur les hauts salaires.<br \/>\nD\u2019autres recherches encore<span class=\"footnote_referrer\"><a role=\"button\" tabindex=\"0\" onclick=\"footnote_moveToReference_10246_1('footnote_plugin_reference_10246_1_5');\" onkeypress=\"footnote_moveToReference_10246_1('footnote_plugin_reference_10246_1_5');\" ><sup id=\"footnote_plugin_tooltip_10246_1_5\" class=\"footnote_plugin_tooltip_text\">(5)<\/sup><\/a><span id=\"footnote_plugin_tooltip_text_10246_1_5\" class=\"footnote_tooltip\">Borjas, George J. 2003. \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.jstor.org\/stable\/25053941\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">The Labor Demand Curve Is Downward Sloping: Reexamining the Impact of Immigration on the Labor Market<\/a>.\u201d <i>The Quarterly Journal of Economics<\/i> 118 ; Borjas, George J. 2017. \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1177\/0019793917692945\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">The Wage Impact of the <i>Marielitos<\/i>\u202f: A Reappraisal<\/a>.\u201d <i>ILR Review.<\/i><\/span><\/span><script type=\"text\/javascript\"> jQuery('#footnote_plugin_tooltip_10246_1_5').tooltip({ tip: '#footnote_plugin_tooltip_text_10246_1_5', tipClass: 'footnote_tooltip', effect: 'fade', predelay: 0, fadeInSpeed: 200, delay: 400, fadeOutSpeed: 200, position: 'top right', relative: true, offset: [10, 10], });<\/script> ont constat\u00e9 un effet n\u00e9gatif significatif de l\u2019immigration sur les salaires des autochtones peu qualifi\u00e9s aux \u00c9tats-Unis.<br \/>\nEnfin des travaux portant sur l\u2019ouverture des fronti\u00e8res suisses aux travailleurs frontaliers &#8211; mise en place entre 1999 et 2004 &#8211; n\u2019a eu que peu d\u2019impact au niveau national. Ainsi, le nombre d\u2019immigrants ne s\u2019est traduit que par une augmentation de 4 % de la population active sur la p\u00e9riode<span class=\"footnote_referrer\"><a role=\"button\" tabindex=\"0\" onclick=\"footnote_moveToReference_10246_1('footnote_plugin_reference_10246_1_6');\" onkeypress=\"footnote_moveToReference_10246_1('footnote_plugin_reference_10246_1_6');\" ><sup id=\"footnote_plugin_tooltip_10246_1_6\" class=\"footnote_plugin_tooltip_text\">(6)<\/sup><\/a><span id=\"footnote_plugin_tooltip_text_10246_1_6\" class=\"footnote_tooltip\">Andreas Beerli &amp; Giovanni Peri, 2015, \u00ab\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.google.com\/url?q=https:\/\/ideas.repec.org\/p\/nbr\/nberwo\/21319.html&amp;sa=D&amp;ust=1605455852534000&amp;usg=AOvVaw2Um0c4RIAtc28URk2kk6CX\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">The Labor Market Effects of Opening the Border: Evidence from Switzerland<\/a>,\u00a0\u00bb <em>NBER Working Papers<\/em><\/span><\/span><script type=\"text\/javascript\"> jQuery('#footnote_plugin_tooltip_10246_1_6').tooltip({ tip: '#footnote_plugin_tooltip_text_10246_1_6', tipClass: 'footnote_tooltip', effect: 'fade', predelay: 0, fadeInSpeed: 200, delay: 400, fadeOutSpeed: 200, position: 'top right', relative: true, offset: [10, 10], });<\/script>. L\u2019\u00e9tude montre aussi que cet afflux accru d\u2019immigrants n\u2019a pas eu d\u2019effets agr\u00e9g\u00e9s significatifs, mais qu\u2019il a engendr\u00e9 des effets diff\u00e9renci\u00e9s sur l\u2019\u00e9chelle des salaires : les travailleurs hautement qualifi\u00e9s ont b\u00e9n\u00e9fici\u00e9 de salaires plus \u00e9lev\u00e9s, tandis que les travailleurs moyennement qualifi\u00e9s ont perdu leur emploi.<\/p>\n<h4>Des \u00e9tudes aux r\u00e9sultats contradictoires<\/h4>\n<div id=\"attachment_10292\" style=\"width: 310px\" class=\"wp-caption alignright\"><img aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-10292\" decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"wp-image-10292 size-medium\" src=\"https:\/\/www.sciencespo.fr\/research\/cogito\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/11\/15257593266_c1c6834503_w-300x225.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"225\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.sciencespo.fr\/research\/cogito\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/11\/15257593266_c1c6834503_w-300x225.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.sciencespo.fr\/research\/cogito\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/11\/15257593266_c1c6834503_w-195x146.jpg 195w, https:\/\/www.sciencespo.fr\/research\/cogito\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/11\/15257593266_c1c6834503_w-50x38.jpg 50w, https:\/\/www.sciencespo.fr\/research\/cogito\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/11\/15257593266_c1c6834503_w-100x75.jpg 100w, https:\/\/www.sciencespo.fr\/research\/cogito\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/11\/15257593266_c1c6834503_w.jpg 400w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><p id=\"caption-attachment-10292\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Affiches expos\u00e9es sur rue par l&rsquo;H\u00f4tel de ville de Paris, mai 1968-mai 2018 avec des graffitis d&rsquo;aujourd&rsquo;hui. \u00a9 Jeanne Menjoulet. CC BY-ND 2.0\/ Flickr<\/p><\/div>\n<p>En effet, des controverses r\u00e9centes ont remis en question le consensus selon lequel l\u2019impact de l\u2019immigration sur les travailleurs autochtones de niveau interm\u00e9diaire n\u00e9s dans le pays est faible.<br \/>\nAinsi, une \u00e9tude men\u00e9e aux \u00c9tats-Unis sur la p\u00e9riode 1990-2006, montre que l\u2019immigration a eu un effet l\u00e9g\u00e8rement positif sur les salaires des travailleurs autochtones non dipl\u00f4m\u00e9s de l\u2019enseignement secondaire (entre 0,6 % et +1,7 %) et sur les salaires moyens des autochtones en g\u00e9n\u00e9ral (+0,6 %). Parall\u00e8lement, on constate sur le long terme une baisse importante (-6,7%) des salaires des anciens immigrants<span class=\"footnote_referrer\"><a role=\"button\" tabindex=\"0\" onclick=\"footnote_moveToReference_10246_1('footnote_plugin_reference_10246_1_7');\" onkeypress=\"footnote_moveToReference_10246_1('footnote_plugin_reference_10246_1_7');\" ><sup id=\"footnote_plugin_tooltip_10246_1_7\" class=\"footnote_plugin_tooltip_text\">(7)<\/sup><\/a><span id=\"footnote_plugin_tooltip_text_10246_1_7\" class=\"footnote_tooltip\">Ottaviano, Gianmarco I. P., and Giovanni Peri. 2012. \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1111\/j.1542-4774.2011.01052.x\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Rethinking the Effect of Immigration on Wages<\/a>\u201d<em><i>Journal of the European Economic Association<\/i> 10<\/em>.<\/span><\/span><script type=\"text\/javascript\"> jQuery('#footnote_plugin_tooltip_10246_1_7').tooltip({ tip: '#footnote_plugin_tooltip_text_10246_1_7', tipClass: 'footnote_tooltip', effect: 'fade', predelay: 0, fadeInSpeed: 200, delay: 400, fadeOutSpeed: 200, position: 'top right', relative: true, offset: [10, 10], });<\/script>.<br \/>\nDe son c\u00f4t\u00e9, une \u00e9tude r\u00e9alis\u00e9e dans les pays de l\u2019OCDE sugg\u00e8re que l\u2019<i>immigration<\/i> n\u2019a aucun impact sur les salaires des travailleurs peu qualifi\u00e9s depuis les ann\u00e9es 1990, mais l\u2019<i>\u00e9migration<\/i> des pays de l\u2019OCDE a un impact n\u00e9gatif<span class=\"footnote_referrer\"><a role=\"button\" tabindex=\"0\" onclick=\"footnote_moveToReference_10246_1('footnote_plugin_reference_10246_1_8');\" onkeypress=\"footnote_moveToReference_10246_1('footnote_plugin_reference_10246_1_8');\" ><sup id=\"footnote_plugin_tooltip_10246_1_8\" class=\"footnote_plugin_tooltip_text\">(8)<\/sup><\/a><span id=\"footnote_plugin_tooltip_text_10246_1_8\" class=\"footnote_tooltip\">Fr\u00e9d\u00e9ric Docquier &amp; \u00c7a\u011flar Ozden &amp; Giovanni Peri, 2014. \u00ab\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/ideas.repec.org\/a\/wly\/econjl\/v124y2014i579p1106-1145.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">The Labour Market Effects of Immigration and Emigration in OECD Countries<\/a>,\u00a0\u00bb<em> Economic Journal<\/em>, Royal Economic Society.<\/span><\/span><script type=\"text\/javascript\"> jQuery('#footnote_plugin_tooltip_10246_1_8').tooltip({ tip: '#footnote_plugin_tooltip_text_10246_1_8', tipClass: 'footnote_tooltip', effect: 'fade', predelay: 0, fadeInSpeed: 200, delay: 400, fadeOutSpeed: 200, position: 'top right', relative: true, offset: [10, 10], });<\/script>. L\u2019importance des baisses ou des hausses de salaire a \u00e9t\u00e9 contest\u00e9e dans les deux cas<span class=\"footnote_referrer\"><a role=\"button\" tabindex=\"0\" onclick=\"footnote_moveToReference_10246_1('footnote_plugin_reference_10246_1_9');\" onkeypress=\"footnote_moveToReference_10246_1('footnote_plugin_reference_10246_1_9');\" ><sup id=\"footnote_plugin_tooltip_10246_1_9\" class=\"footnote_plugin_tooltip_text\">(9)<\/sup><\/a><span id=\"footnote_plugin_tooltip_text_10246_1_9\" class=\"footnote_tooltip\">Clemens, Michael, and Jennifer Hunt. 2017. \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3386\/w23433\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">The Labor Market Effects of Refugee Waves: Reconciling Conflicting Results.<\/a>\u201d w23433. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research,<\/span><\/span><script type=\"text\/javascript\"> jQuery('#footnote_plugin_tooltip_10246_1_9').tooltip({ tip: '#footnote_plugin_tooltip_text_10246_1_9', tipClass: 'footnote_tooltip', effect: 'fade', predelay: 0, fadeInSpeed: 200, delay: 400, fadeOutSpeed: 200, position: 'top right', relative: true, offset: [10, 10], });<\/script>.<br \/>\nD\u2019autres \u00e9tudes, portant sur des \u00e9pisodes historiques<span class=\"footnote_referrer\"><a role=\"button\" tabindex=\"0\" onclick=\"footnote_moveToReference_10246_1('footnote_plugin_reference_10246_1_10');\" onkeypress=\"footnote_moveToReference_10246_1('footnote_plugin_reference_10246_1_10');\" ><sup id=\"footnote_plugin_tooltip_10246_1_10\" class=\"footnote_plugin_tooltip_text\">(10)<\/sup><\/a><span id=\"footnote_plugin_tooltip_text_10246_1_10\" class=\"footnote_tooltip\">Les \u00e9pisodes ayant servi \u00ab d\u2019exp\u00e9rience naturelle \u00bb pour ces chocs d\u2019immigration sont l\u2019exode de Mariel \u00e0 Miami en 1980 &#8211;\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.2307\/2523702\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Card, 1990<\/a> &#8211; les travailleurs rapatri\u00e9s d\u2019Alg\u00e9rie en France apr\u00e8s 1962 &#8211; <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.2307\/2524278\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Hunt, 1992<\/a> &#8211; , les Juifs post-sovi\u00e9tiques en Isra\u00ebl entre 1990 et 1994 &#8211; <a href=\"https:\/\/academic.oup.com\/qje\/article-abstract\/116\/4\/1373\/1903234?redirectedFrom=fulltext\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Friedberg, 2001<\/a> &#8211; les r\u00e9fugi\u00e9s des Balkans dans 18 pays de l\u2019UE dans les ann\u00e9es 1990 &#8211;\u00a0 <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1111\/1468-0297.00136\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Angrist &amp; Kugler, 2003<\/a>.<\/span><\/span><script type=\"text\/javascript\"> jQuery('#footnote_plugin_tooltip_10246_1_10').tooltip({ tip: '#footnote_plugin_tooltip_text_10246_1_10', tipClass: 'footnote_tooltip', effect: 'fade', predelay: 0, fadeInSpeed: 200, delay: 400, fadeOutSpeed: 200, position: 'top right', relative: true, offset: [10, 10], });<\/script> et exploitant des donn\u00e9es au niveau des villes se sont pench\u00e9es sur des afflux massifs et soudains de r\u00e9fugi\u00e9s ont \u00e9tabli que ces arriv\u00e9es n\u2019ont pas diminu\u00e9 les salaires<span class=\"footnote_referrer\"><a role=\"button\" tabindex=\"0\" onclick=\"footnote_moveToReference_10246_1('footnote_plugin_reference_10246_1_11');\" onkeypress=\"footnote_moveToReference_10246_1('footnote_plugin_reference_10246_1_11');\" ><sup id=\"footnote_plugin_tooltip_10246_1_11\" class=\"footnote_plugin_tooltip_text\">(11)<\/sup><\/a><span id=\"footnote_plugin_tooltip_text_10246_1_11\" class=\"footnote_tooltip\">\u00ab\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.google.com\/url?sa=t&amp;rct=j&amp;q=&amp;esrc=s&amp;source=web&amp;cd=&amp;cad=rja&amp;uact=8&amp;ved=2ahUKEwia6bzK7oTtAhWQHhQKHXo7DEYQFjAAegQIBBAC&amp;url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.journals.uchicago.edu%2Fdoi%2F10.1086%2F209979&amp;usg=AOvVaw1I2ehEfK3yonfemIJWrSsn\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">The Impact of Mass Migration on the Israeli Labor Market<\/a>\u00ab\u00a0, Rachel M. Friedberg, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, nov. 2001.<\/span><\/span><script type=\"text\/javascript\"> jQuery('#footnote_plugin_tooltip_10246_1_11').tooltip({ tip: '#footnote_plugin_tooltip_text_10246_1_11', tipClass: 'footnote_tooltip', effect: 'fade', predelay: 0, fadeInSpeed: 200, delay: 400, fadeOutSpeed: 200, position: 'top right', relative: true, offset: [10, 10], });<\/script>, mais ont l\u00e9g\u00e8rement augment\u00e9 le ch\u00f4mage<span class=\"footnote_referrer\"><a role=\"button\" tabindex=\"0\" onclick=\"footnote_moveToReference_10246_1('footnote_plugin_reference_10246_1_12');\" onkeypress=\"footnote_moveToReference_10246_1('footnote_plugin_reference_10246_1_12');\" ><sup id=\"footnote_plugin_tooltip_10246_1_12\" class=\"footnote_plugin_tooltip_text\">(12)<\/sup><\/a><span id=\"footnote_plugin_tooltip_text_10246_1_12\" class=\"footnote_tooltip\">Joshua D. Angrist and Adriana D. Kugler, \u00ab\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.jstor.org\/stable\/3590203?seq=1\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Protective or Counter-Productive? Labour Market Institutions and the Effect of Immigration on EU Natives<\/a>\u00ab\u00a0, <em>The Economic Journal<\/em>, Jun., 2003; Hunt, Jennifer. 1992. \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.2307\/2524278\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">The Impact of the 1962 Repatriates from Algeria on the French Labor Market<\/a>.\u201d <i>Industrial and Labor Relations Review<\/i> 45<\/span><\/span><script type=\"text\/javascript\"> jQuery('#footnote_plugin_tooltip_10246_1_12').tooltip({ tip: '#footnote_plugin_tooltip_text_10246_1_12', tipClass: 'footnote_tooltip', effect: 'fade', predelay: 0, fadeInSpeed: 200, delay: 400, fadeOutSpeed: 200, position: 'top right', relative: true, offset: [10, 10], });<\/script>.<\/p>\n<h4>Les \u00e9l\u00e9ments \u00e0 prendre en compte<\/h4>\n<p>Pour \u00e9valuer si les march\u00e9s du travail sont perturb\u00e9s dans les pays d\u2019accueil, en comprendre les m\u00e9canismes et &#8211; plus important encore &#8211; pendant combien de temps ces effets se sont ressentir, il ne suffit pas de se demander si l\u2019immigration diminue les salaires des autochtones. Il faut chercher \u00e0 en prendre en compte des dimensions insuffisamment \u00e9tudi\u00e9es :<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"color: #333333;\">la <b>compl\u00e9mentarit\u00e9<\/b> entre autochtones <i>et<\/i> immigrants<span class=\"footnote_referrer\"><a role=\"button\" tabindex=\"0\" onclick=\"footnote_moveToReference_10246_1('footnote_plugin_reference_10246_1_13');\" onkeypress=\"footnote_moveToReference_10246_1('footnote_plugin_reference_10246_1_13');\" ><sup id=\"footnote_plugin_tooltip_10246_1_13\" class=\"footnote_plugin_tooltip_text\">(13)<\/sup><\/a><span id=\"footnote_plugin_tooltip_text_10246_1_13\" class=\"footnote_tooltip\">Card, David. 2012. <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1111\/j.1542-4774.2011.01057.x\">\u00ab\u00a0Comment: The Elusive Search for Negative Wage Impacts of Immigration.\u00a0\u00bb<\/a> <i>Journal of the European Economic Association<\/i> 10<\/span><span style=\"color: #333333;\"><\/span><\/span><script type=\"text\/javascript\"> jQuery('#footnote_plugin_tooltip_10246_1_13').tooltip({ tip: '#footnote_plugin_tooltip_text_10246_1_13', tipClass: 'footnote_tooltip', effect: 'fade', predelay: 0, fadeInSpeed: 200, delay: 400, fadeOutSpeed: 200, position: 'top right', relative: true, offset: [10, 10], });<\/script>. Comme le montrent des donn\u00e9es empiriques recueillies en Californie \u00e0 partir des ann\u00e9es 1960, les immigrants ont tendance \u00e0 stimuler la demande. Par ailleurs, on constate que les diff\u00e9rences de comp\u00e9tences entre migrants et autochtones &#8211; par exemple en termes de ma\u00eetrise des langues, des cultures etc. &#8211; font que les migrants ne se substituent p as parfaitement aux autochtones de la m\u00eame tranche d\u2019\u00e2ge, m\u00eame en ayant un niveau d\u2019\u00e9ducation comparable<span class=\"footnote_referrer\"><a role=\"button\" tabindex=\"0\" onclick=\"footnote_moveToReference_10246_1('footnote_plugin_reference_10246_1_14');\" onkeypress=\"footnote_moveToReference_10246_1('footnote_plugin_reference_10246_1_14');\" ><sup id=\"footnote_plugin_tooltip_10246_1_14\" class=\"footnote_plugin_tooltip_text\">(14)<\/sup><\/a><span id=\"footnote_plugin_tooltip_text_10246_1_14\" class=\"footnote_tooltip\">Peri, Giovanni. 2007.<a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3386\/w12956\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">\u00ab\u00a0Immigrants\u2019 Complementarities and Native Wages: Evidence from California.\u00a0\u00bb<\/a>\u00a0 w12956. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research<\/span><\/span><script type=\"text\/javascript\"> jQuery('#footnote_plugin_tooltip_10246_1_14').tooltip({ tip: '#footnote_plugin_tooltip_text_10246_1_14', tipClass: 'footnote_tooltip', effect: 'fade', predelay: 0, fadeInSpeed: 200, delay: 400, fadeOutSpeed: 200, position: 'top right', relative: true, offset: [10, 10], });<\/script> mais qu\u2019ils peuvent occuper d\u2019autres emplois de m\u00eame niveau.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #333333;\">la <b>mobilit\u00e9 interne<\/b> (g\u00e9ographique et professionnelle) des travailleurs &#8211; migrants et autochtones &#8211; li\u00e9e au fait qu\u2019ils s\u2019adaptent \u00e0 la demande de main-d\u2019\u0153uvre tant au niveau national qu\u2019\u00e0 une \u00e9chelle r\u00e9gionale (pour l\u2019espace Schengen). Les r\u00e9sultats obtenus \u00e0 partir du cas \u00e9tats-unien pourraient \u00eatre appliqu\u00e9s \u00e0 l\u2019espace Schengen de l\u2019UE ou \u00e0 la CEDEAO en Afrique de l\u2019Ouest : ils sugg\u00e8rent qu\u2019\u00e0 l\u2019exception d\u2019un nombre r\u00e9duit de travailleurs autochtones, la plupart des effets sur les salaires r\u00e9sultant d\u2019une migration croissante ont tendance \u00e0 se dissiper\u00a0 assez rapidement<span class=\"footnote_referrer\"><a role=\"button\" tabindex=\"0\" onclick=\"footnote_moveToReference_10246_1('footnote_plugin_reference_10246_1_15');\" onkeypress=\"footnote_moveToReference_10246_1('footnote_plugin_reference_10246_1_15');\" ><sup id=\"footnote_plugin_tooltip_10246_1_15\" class=\"footnote_plugin_tooltip_text\">(15)<\/sup><\/a><span id=\"footnote_plugin_tooltip_text_10246_1_15\" class=\"footnote_tooltip\">Monras, Joan. 2018. <em>\u201c<\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/cepr.org\/active\/publications\/discussion_papers\/dp.php?dpno=13394\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">\u00ab\u00a0Immigration and Wage Dynamics: Evidence from the Mexican Peso Crisis\u00a0\u00bb.<\/a><em> CEPR Discussion Paper 13394.<\/em><\/span><\/span><script type=\"text\/javascript\"> jQuery('#footnote_plugin_tooltip_10246_1_15').tooltip({ tip: '#footnote_plugin_tooltip_text_10246_1_15', tipClass: 'footnote_tooltip', effect: 'fade', predelay: 0, fadeInSpeed: 200, delay: 400, fadeOutSpeed: 200, position: 'top right', relative: true, offset: [10, 10], });<\/script>.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>En r\u00e9sum\u00e9, les donn\u00e9es issues des vagues de r\u00e9fugi\u00e9s montrent des effets n\u00e9gatifs \u00e0 court terme sur les salaires et l\u2019emploi de certains travailleurs autochtones \u00e0 certaines p\u00e9riodes et dans certains lieux, mais aucun effet \u00e0 d\u2019autres p\u00e9riodes et dans d\u2019autres lieux, et ne corroborent pas les all\u00e9gations d\u2019effets n\u00e9gatifs importants, m\u00eame sur les travailleurs peu qualifi\u00e9s.<\/p>\n<pre><a href=\"http:\/\/www.sciencespo.fr\/ceri\/cerispire-user\/7130\/1612\">H\u00e9l\u00e8ne Thiollet<\/a>, charg\u00e9e de recherche CNRS au Centre de recherches internationales \u00e9tudie les politiques migratoires dans les pays du Sud. Elle s'int\u00e9resse particuli\u00e8rement au Moyen-Orient et \u00e0 l'Afrique sub-saharienne. <a href=\"https:\/\/spire.sciencespo.fr\/auteur\/2441\/69f0g8p3i68abput7cksehpocl\">Voir ses publications<\/a>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https:\/\/floswald.github.io\/\">Florian Oswald<\/a> est professeur assistant au D\u00e9partement d'\u00e9conomie. Ses travaux se situent dans les domaines de l'\u00e9conomie du logement, urbaine, macro et du travail. J'aime aussi r\u00e9fl\u00e9chir aux techniques de calcul n\u00e9cessaires \u00e0 l'estimation structurelle des mod\u00e8les micro\u00e9conom\u00e9triques. <a href=\"https:\/\/floswald.github.io\/#publications\">Voir ses publications.<\/a><\/pre>\n<div class=\"speaker-mute footnotes_reference_container\"> <div class=\"footnote_container_prepare\"><p><span role=\"button\" tabindex=\"0\" class=\"footnote_reference_container_label pointer\" onclick=\"footnote_expand_collapse_reference_container_10246_1();\">Notes<\/span><span role=\"button\" tabindex=\"0\" class=\"footnote_reference_container_collapse_button\" style=\"display: none;\" onclick=\"footnote_expand_collapse_reference_container_10246_1();\">[<a id=\"footnote_reference_container_collapse_button_10246_1\">+<\/a>]<\/span><\/p><\/div> <div id=\"footnote_references_container_10246_1\" style=\"\"><table class=\"footnotes_table footnote-reference-container\"><caption class=\"accessibility\">Notes<\/caption> <tbody> \r\n\r\n<tr class=\"footnotes_plugin_reference_row\"> <th scope=\"row\" class=\"footnote_plugin_index_combi pointer\"  onclick=\"footnote_moveToAnchor_10246_1('footnote_plugin_tooltip_10246_1_1');\"><a id=\"footnote_plugin_reference_10246_1_1\" class=\"footnote_backlink\"><span class=\"footnote_index_arrow\">&#8593;<\/span>1<\/a><\/th> <td class=\"footnote_plugin_text\">George J. Borjas, \u00ab\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.google.com\/url?q=https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1162\/003355303322552810&amp;sa=D&amp;ust=1605455852545000&amp;usg=AOvVaw2KeyKZuoaoOCj0Cd-n99Wf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">The Labor Demand Curve is Downward Sloping: Reexamining the Impact of Immigration on the Labor Market<\/a>\u00ab\u00a0, <em>The Quarterly Journal of Economics<\/em>, November 2003.<\/td><\/tr>\r\n\r\n<tr class=\"footnotes_plugin_reference_row\"> <th scope=\"row\" class=\"footnote_plugin_index_combi pointer\"  onclick=\"footnote_moveToAnchor_10246_1('footnote_plugin_tooltip_10246_1_2');\"><a id=\"footnote_plugin_reference_10246_1_2\" class=\"footnote_backlink\"><span class=\"footnote_index_arrow\">&#8593;<\/span>2<\/a><\/th> <td class=\"footnote_plugin_text\">Christian Dustmann, Tommaso Frattini and Ian Preston, \u00ab\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.google.com\/url?q=https:\/\/econpapers.repec.org\/article\/ouprestud\/v_3a80_3ay_3a2013_3ai_3a1_3ap_3a145-173.htm&amp;sa=D&amp;ust=1605455852532000&amp;usg=AOvVaw3J1Bv60kGWvl5DvZMJYxfU\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">The Effect of Immigration along the Distribution of Wages<\/a>\u00ab\u00a0, <em>Review of Economic Studies<\/em>, 2013.<\/td><\/tr>\r\n\r\n<tr class=\"footnotes_plugin_reference_row\"> <th scope=\"row\" class=\"footnote_plugin_index_combi pointer\"  onclick=\"footnote_moveToAnchor_10246_1('footnote_plugin_tooltip_10246_1_3');\"><a id=\"footnote_plugin_reference_10246_1_3\" class=\"footnote_backlink\"><span class=\"footnote_index_arrow\">&#8593;<\/span>3<\/a><\/th> <td class=\"footnote_plugin_text\">Paolo Lucchino, Chiara Rosazza Bondibene and Jonathan Portes,\u00a0\u00bb<a href=\"https:\/\/www.niesr.ac.uk\/sites\/default\/files\/publications\/dp386.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Examining the relationship between immigration and unemployment using National Insurance Number registration data<\/a>\u00ab\u00a0, <em>NIESR Discussion Paper.<\/em><\/td><\/tr>\r\n\r\n<tr class=\"footnotes_plugin_reference_row\"> <th scope=\"row\" class=\"footnote_plugin_index_combi pointer\"  onclick=\"footnote_moveToAnchor_10246_1('footnote_plugin_tooltip_10246_1_4');\"><a id=\"footnote_plugin_reference_10246_1_4\" class=\"footnote_backlink\"><span class=\"footnote_index_arrow\">&#8593;<\/span>4<\/a><\/th> <td class=\"footnote_plugin_text\">George J. Borjas and Joan Monras, 2016, \u00ab\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.google.com\/url?q=https:\/\/econpapers.repec.org\/paper\/cmfwpaper\/wp2016_5f1616.htm&amp;sa=D&amp;ust=1605455852540000&amp;usg=AOvVaw2K9iynPTlDNTmHOIk59YXq\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">The Labor Market Consequences of Refugee Supply Shocks<\/a>\u00ab\u00a0, <em>Working Papers, CEMFI<\/em>.<\/td><\/tr>\r\n\r\n<tr class=\"footnotes_plugin_reference_row\"> <th scope=\"row\" class=\"footnote_plugin_index_combi pointer\"  onclick=\"footnote_moveToAnchor_10246_1('footnote_plugin_tooltip_10246_1_5');\"><a id=\"footnote_plugin_reference_10246_1_5\" class=\"footnote_backlink\"><span class=\"footnote_index_arrow\">&#8593;<\/span>5<\/a><\/th> <td class=\"footnote_plugin_text\">Borjas, George J. 2003. \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.jstor.org\/stable\/25053941\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">The Labor Demand Curve Is Downward Sloping: Reexamining the Impact of Immigration on the Labor Market<\/a>.\u201d <i>The Quarterly Journal of Economics<\/i> 118 ; Borjas, George J. 2017. \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1177\/0019793917692945\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">The Wage Impact of the <i>Marielitos<\/i>\u202f: A Reappraisal<\/a>.\u201d <i>ILR Review.<\/i><\/td><\/tr>\r\n\r\n<tr class=\"footnotes_plugin_reference_row\"> <th scope=\"row\" class=\"footnote_plugin_index_combi pointer\"  onclick=\"footnote_moveToAnchor_10246_1('footnote_plugin_tooltip_10246_1_6');\"><a id=\"footnote_plugin_reference_10246_1_6\" class=\"footnote_backlink\"><span class=\"footnote_index_arrow\">&#8593;<\/span>6<\/a><\/th> <td class=\"footnote_plugin_text\">Andreas Beerli &amp; Giovanni Peri, 2015, \u00ab\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.google.com\/url?q=https:\/\/ideas.repec.org\/p\/nbr\/nberwo\/21319.html&amp;sa=D&amp;ust=1605455852534000&amp;usg=AOvVaw2Um0c4RIAtc28URk2kk6CX\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">The Labor Market Effects of Opening the Border: Evidence from Switzerland<\/a>,\u00a0\u00bb <em>NBER Working Papers<\/em><\/td><\/tr>\r\n\r\n<tr class=\"footnotes_plugin_reference_row\"> <th scope=\"row\" class=\"footnote_plugin_index_combi pointer\"  onclick=\"footnote_moveToAnchor_10246_1('footnote_plugin_tooltip_10246_1_7');\"><a id=\"footnote_plugin_reference_10246_1_7\" class=\"footnote_backlink\"><span class=\"footnote_index_arrow\">&#8593;<\/span>7<\/a><\/th> <td class=\"footnote_plugin_text\">Ottaviano, Gianmarco I. P., and Giovanni Peri. 2012. \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1111\/j.1542-4774.2011.01052.x\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Rethinking the Effect of Immigration on Wages<\/a>\u201d<em><i>Journal of the European Economic Association<\/i> 10<\/em>.<\/td><\/tr>\r\n\r\n<tr class=\"footnotes_plugin_reference_row\"> <th scope=\"row\" class=\"footnote_plugin_index_combi pointer\"  onclick=\"footnote_moveToAnchor_10246_1('footnote_plugin_tooltip_10246_1_8');\"><a id=\"footnote_plugin_reference_10246_1_8\" class=\"footnote_backlink\"><span class=\"footnote_index_arrow\">&#8593;<\/span>8<\/a><\/th> <td class=\"footnote_plugin_text\">Fr\u00e9d\u00e9ric Docquier &amp; \u00c7a\u011flar Ozden &amp; Giovanni Peri, 2014. \u00ab\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/ideas.repec.org\/a\/wly\/econjl\/v124y2014i579p1106-1145.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">The Labour Market Effects of Immigration and Emigration in OECD Countries<\/a>,\u00a0\u00bb<em> Economic Journal<\/em>, Royal Economic Society.<\/td><\/tr>\r\n\r\n<tr class=\"footnotes_plugin_reference_row\"> <th scope=\"row\" class=\"footnote_plugin_index_combi pointer\"  onclick=\"footnote_moveToAnchor_10246_1('footnote_plugin_tooltip_10246_1_9');\"><a id=\"footnote_plugin_reference_10246_1_9\" class=\"footnote_backlink\"><span class=\"footnote_index_arrow\">&#8593;<\/span>9<\/a><\/th> <td class=\"footnote_plugin_text\">Clemens, Michael, and Jennifer Hunt. 2017. \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3386\/w23433\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">The Labor Market Effects of Refugee Waves: Reconciling Conflicting Results.<\/a>\u201d w23433. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research,<\/td><\/tr>\r\n\r\n<tr class=\"footnotes_plugin_reference_row\"> <th scope=\"row\" class=\"footnote_plugin_index_combi pointer\"  onclick=\"footnote_moveToAnchor_10246_1('footnote_plugin_tooltip_10246_1_10');\"><a id=\"footnote_plugin_reference_10246_1_10\" class=\"footnote_backlink\"><span class=\"footnote_index_arrow\">&#8593;<\/span>10<\/a><\/th> <td class=\"footnote_plugin_text\">Les \u00e9pisodes ayant servi \u00ab d\u2019exp\u00e9rience naturelle \u00bb pour ces chocs d\u2019immigration sont l\u2019exode de Mariel \u00e0 Miami en 1980 &#8211;\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.2307\/2523702\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Card, 1990<\/a> &#8211; les travailleurs rapatri\u00e9s d\u2019Alg\u00e9rie en France apr\u00e8s 1962 &#8211; <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.2307\/2524278\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Hunt, 1992<\/a> &#8211; , les Juifs post-sovi\u00e9tiques en Isra\u00ebl entre 1990 et 1994 &#8211; <a href=\"https:\/\/academic.oup.com\/qje\/article-abstract\/116\/4\/1373\/1903234?redirectedFrom=fulltext\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Friedberg, 2001<\/a> &#8211; les r\u00e9fugi\u00e9s des Balkans dans 18 pays de l\u2019UE dans les ann\u00e9es 1990 &#8211;\u00a0 <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1111\/1468-0297.00136\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Angrist &amp; Kugler, 2003<\/a>.<\/td><\/tr>\r\n\r\n<tr class=\"footnotes_plugin_reference_row\"> <th scope=\"row\" class=\"footnote_plugin_index_combi pointer\"  onclick=\"footnote_moveToAnchor_10246_1('footnote_plugin_tooltip_10246_1_11');\"><a id=\"footnote_plugin_reference_10246_1_11\" class=\"footnote_backlink\"><span class=\"footnote_index_arrow\">&#8593;<\/span>11<\/a><\/th> <td class=\"footnote_plugin_text\">\u00ab\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.google.com\/url?sa=t&amp;rct=j&amp;q=&amp;esrc=s&amp;source=web&amp;cd=&amp;cad=rja&amp;uact=8&amp;ved=2ahUKEwia6bzK7oTtAhWQHhQKHXo7DEYQFjAAegQIBBAC&amp;url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.journals.uchicago.edu%2Fdoi%2F10.1086%2F209979&amp;usg=AOvVaw1I2ehEfK3yonfemIJWrSsn\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">The Impact of Mass Migration on the Israeli Labor Market<\/a>\u00ab\u00a0, Rachel M. Friedberg, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, nov. 2001.<\/td><\/tr>\r\n\r\n<tr class=\"footnotes_plugin_reference_row\"> <th scope=\"row\" class=\"footnote_plugin_index_combi pointer\"  onclick=\"footnote_moveToAnchor_10246_1('footnote_plugin_tooltip_10246_1_12');\"><a id=\"footnote_plugin_reference_10246_1_12\" class=\"footnote_backlink\"><span class=\"footnote_index_arrow\">&#8593;<\/span>12<\/a><\/th> <td class=\"footnote_plugin_text\">Joshua D. Angrist and Adriana D. Kugler, \u00ab\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.jstor.org\/stable\/3590203?seq=1\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Protective or Counter-Productive? Labour Market Institutions and the Effect of Immigration on EU Natives<\/a>\u00ab\u00a0, <em>The Economic Journal<\/em>, Jun., 2003; Hunt, Jennifer. 1992. \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.2307\/2524278\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">The Impact of the 1962 Repatriates from Algeria on the French Labor Market<\/a>.\u201d <i>Industrial and Labor Relations Review<\/i> 45<\/td><\/tr>\r\n\r\n<tr class=\"footnotes_plugin_reference_row\"> <th scope=\"row\" class=\"footnote_plugin_index_combi pointer\"  onclick=\"footnote_moveToAnchor_10246_1('footnote_plugin_tooltip_10246_1_13');\"><a id=\"footnote_plugin_reference_10246_1_13\" class=\"footnote_backlink\"><span class=\"footnote_index_arrow\">&#8593;<\/span>13<\/a><\/th> <td class=\"footnote_plugin_text\">Card, David. 2012. <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1111\/j.1542-4774.2011.01057.x\">\u00ab\u00a0Comment: The Elusive Search for Negative Wage Impacts of Immigration.\u00a0\u00bb<\/a> <i>Journal of the European Economic Association<\/i> 10<\/span><span style=\"color: #333333;\"><\/td><\/tr>\r\n\r\n<tr class=\"footnotes_plugin_reference_row\"> <th scope=\"row\" class=\"footnote_plugin_index_combi pointer\"  onclick=\"footnote_moveToAnchor_10246_1('footnote_plugin_tooltip_10246_1_14');\"><a id=\"footnote_plugin_reference_10246_1_14\" class=\"footnote_backlink\"><span class=\"footnote_index_arrow\">&#8593;<\/span>14<\/a><\/th> <td class=\"footnote_plugin_text\">Peri, Giovanni. 2007.<a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3386\/w12956\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">\u00ab\u00a0Immigrants\u2019 Complementarities and Native Wages: Evidence from California.\u00a0\u00bb<\/a>\u00a0 w12956. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research<\/td><\/tr>\r\n\r\n<tr class=\"footnotes_plugin_reference_row\"> <th scope=\"row\" class=\"footnote_plugin_index_combi pointer\"  onclick=\"footnote_moveToAnchor_10246_1('footnote_plugin_tooltip_10246_1_15');\"><a id=\"footnote_plugin_reference_10246_1_15\" class=\"footnote_backlink\"><span class=\"footnote_index_arrow\">&#8593;<\/span>15<\/a><\/th> <td class=\"footnote_plugin_text\">Monras, Joan. 2018. <em>\u201c<\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/cepr.org\/active\/publications\/discussion_papers\/dp.php?dpno=13394\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">\u00ab\u00a0Immigration and Wage Dynamics: Evidence from the Mexican Peso Crisis\u00a0\u00bb.<\/a><em> CEPR Discussion Paper 13394.<\/em><\/td><\/tr>\r\n\r\n <\/tbody> <\/table> <\/div><\/div><script type=\"text\/javascript\"> function footnote_expand_reference_container_10246_1() { jQuery('#footnote_references_container_10246_1').show(); jQuery('#footnote_reference_container_collapse_button_10246_1').text('\u2212'); } function footnote_collapse_reference_container_10246_1() { jQuery('#footnote_references_container_10246_1').hide(); jQuery('#footnote_reference_container_collapse_button_10246_1').text('+'); } function footnote_expand_collapse_reference_container_10246_1() { if (jQuery('#footnote_references_container_10246_1').is(':hidden')) { footnote_expand_reference_container_10246_1(); } else { footnote_collapse_reference_container_10246_1(); } } function footnote_moveToReference_10246_1(p_str_TargetID) { footnote_expand_reference_container_10246_1(); var l_obj_Target = jQuery('#' + p_str_TargetID); if (l_obj_Target.length) { jQuery( 'html, body' ).delay( 0 ); jQuery('html, body').animate({ scrollTop: l_obj_Target.offset().top - window.innerHeight * 0.2 }, 380); } } function footnote_moveToAnchor_10246_1(p_str_TargetID) { footnote_expand_reference_container_10246_1(); var l_obj_Target = jQuery('#' + p_str_TargetID); if (l_obj_Target.length) { jQuery( 'html, body' ).delay( 0 ); jQuery('html, body').animate({ scrollTop: l_obj_Target.offset().top - window.innerHeight * 0.2 }, 380); } }<\/script>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>par H\u00e9l\u00e8ne Thiollet et Florian Oswald Traditionnellement, l\u2019\u00e9conomie du travail postule que les salaires sont d\u00e9termin\u00e9s par l\u2019offre et la demande. 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