Probabilités épidémiologiques et décisions politiques à l’épreuve de la covid-19
Project holders:
- Mathieu CORTEEL (Sciences Po, CSO)
- Henri BERGERON (Sciences Po, CSO, LIEPP)
Project description :
During the covid-19 crisis, the government mobilised, in a preponderant way, the statistical tool and the calculation of probabilities in order to guide and to legitimate the action of public policies. By predicting the evolution of the virus on the national territory, mathematical modelling of the incidence, exponential growth and reproduction rate of the virus within the population led to the implementation of strict sanitary measures and the identification of quantified results to be achieved in order to guarantee the public interest. However, epistemological and organisational obstacles have made the political decision and the legitimisation of the measures among the population more complex. The ProbaPol research project thus intends to analyse the limits of the statistical reasoning that guides political power in times of health crisis in order to understand the epistemic and organisational modalities of political decision-making in the face of the numerical hazard of the epidemic. Uncovering the foundations of political conjecture through the tools of statistical scenarios opens up new approaches capable of improving crisis management and collective deliberation skills.
Publications :
- Mathieu CORTEEL, Renaud CRESPIN, Une politique sous l'emprise des modèles : la gestion de la crise de Covid 19 en France en 2020 LIEPP Working Paper n°159, 2024
- Mathieu CORTEEL, "Les boîtes noires de la pandémie : modélisation épidémiologique et pouvoir politique durant la crise de Covid-19" in Multitudes, n°86, 2022
- Mathieu CORTEEL, Covid 19 : la santé publique comme laboratoire du contrôle social, AOC, 24 novembre 2021
Poster of the project - May 2022
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Publications of the Research Group
- Mark STABILE, Sarah THOMSON, The Changing Role of Government in Financing Health Care: An International Perspective LIEPP Working Paper n°26, mai 2014
- Hugo BERTILLOT, Quand l’évaluation modifie les institutions : Comment l’hôpital est transformé par les indicateurs qualité , LIEPP Policy Brief n°20, septembre 2015
- Léa TOULEMON, Laurent DAVEZIES, Does moving to a system with more generous public health insurance increase medical care consumption? LIEPP Working Paper n°37, February 2015
- Etienne NOUGUEZ, Solenne CAROF, At the Boundaries of Food and Medicine: The Genesis and Transformation of the ‘Functional Food’ Markets in France and Europe LIEPP Working Paper n°90, Septembre 2019
- Sophie DUBUISSON-QUELLIER, Benoît GRANIER, Comment inciter les entreprises à afficher les impacts environnementaux sur les produits de grande consommation ? LIEPP Policy Brief, n°40, avril 2019
- Henri BERGERON, Patrick CASTEL, Etienne NOUGUEZ An ungovernable tool of government? The problematic use of labels in public health policies LIEPP Working Paper n°106, February 2020
- Thomas RAPP, CHAUVIN, P, BELLANGER, M, SIRVEN, N, Heterogeneity in Drug Recommendation Compliance: Evidence from France of a Gender Bias in the Treatment of Alzheimer’s Patients Journal de gestion et d'économie de la santé 2020/2 (2), p. 93-109 2020
- Thomas RAPP, SICSIC, J., RAVESTEJIN, B Are frail elderly people in Europe high-need subjects? First evidence from the SPRINTT data. Health Policy Volume 124, Issue 8, p. 865-872, August 2020
- Thomas RAPP, SICSIC, J., The contribution of the immigrant population to the US long-term care workforce Social Science and Medicine Volume 263, October 2020
- Thomas RAPP, ROLLAND, Y., NEDA TAVASSOLI, N., SOUTO BARRETO, P., PERRIN, A., LAFFON DE MAZIERES, C., HERMABESSIERES, S., TOURNAY, E., VELLAS, B., ANDRIEU, S. Systematic dementia screening by multidisciplinary team meetings in nursing homes for reducing emergency department transfers: the IDEM cluster-randomised controlled trial JAMA network Open 2020 3(2) , p. 1-13 2020
- Thomas RAPP, BUSSIERE, C. SIRVEN, N., SEVILLA DEDIEU, C. Adherence to medical follow-up recommendations reduces hospital admissions: Evidence from diabetic patients in France. Accepted for publication Health Economics 29 (2) 2020
- Lawrence D. BROWN, The Discrete Charm of Managed Competition in Health Policy Reform LIEPP Working Paper n°123, Septembre 2021
- Thomas RAPP, Jérôme RONCHETTI, Jonathan SICSIC Les métiers du grand âge, métiers à risque ? LIEPP Policy Brief n°56, Novembre 2021
- Thomas RAPP, ROQUEBERT, Q., SICSIC, J., SANTOS-EGGIMANN, B. et al. Frailty, Sarcopenia and Long Term Care Utilization In Older Populations: A Systematic Review The Journal of Frailty & Aging 2021
- Thomas RAPP, ROQUEBERT, Q., SICSIC, J., et al. Health measures and long-term care use in the European frail population The European Journal of Health Economics 22, p. 405–423 2021
- Thomas RAPP, RONCHETTI, J., SICSIC, J. Are long-term care jobs harmful? Evidence from Germany The European Journal of Health Economics Accepted for publication, 2021
- Thomas RAPP, MCHUGH, J., MOTAMASUR, S., MOR, V. Higher Hospital Referral Concentration Associated with Lower Risk Patients in Skilled Nursing Facilities Health Services Research Accepted for publication, 2021
- Thomas RAPP, Jérôme RONCHETTI, Jonathan SICSIC Are long-term care jobs harmful? Evidence from Germany The European Journal of Health Economics avril 2021
- Thomas RAPP, Quitterie ROQUEBERT, Jonathan SICSIC Mettre le « value-based aging » au cœur des politiques de dépendance LIEPP Policy Brief n°53, Juin 2021
- Bartholomew A KONECHNI, Unconditional Cash Transfers Impact on Health Behaviours During a Crisis: A Natural Experiment Using the CARES Act 2020 LIEPP Working Paper n°153, 2023
- Elisa CHELLE, Enguerrand DEZERCES Le dépistage du cancer dans une perspective internationale : une revue exploratoire LIEPP Working Paper n°157, 2023
- Lucille GALLARDO, Lara GAUTIER, Fanny CHABROL, Lola TRAVERSON, Sydia OLIVEIRA, Valery RIDDE, Les cabinets de conseil privés dans l'action publique contre les épidémies : une revue exploratoire LIEPP Working Paper n°139 2023
- Maïva ROPAUL, Colin SIDRE, Emy ALVES, Luigi GONTARD Trusted persons of elderly patients in France: a scoping review , LIEPP Working Paper n°147, 2023
- Maïva ROPAUL, Elisa DARRIET Informal caregivers of elderly patients in France: their behavior as trusted persons and their knowledge of this concept LIEPP Working Paper, n°151, 2023
- Isabel PERERA, Musckaan CHAUHAN Artificial Intelligence: Promises, Perils and Political Economy LIEPP Working Paper n°160, 2024
- Mathieu CORTEEL, Renaud CRESPIN Une politique sous l'emprise des modèles : la gestion de la crise de Covid 19 en France en 2020 LIEPP Working Paper n°159, 2024