Les études du CERI

Les études du CERI

Les Etudes du CERI series publishes about 10 issues per year following the strict rules of double blind peer reviewed academic publications. The editorial board is composed of members of CERI’s Unit Council.
Les Etudes du CERI is a tool for decision-making and offers to scrutinize and study the transformations of our contemporary world, in more than 200 titles addressing a variety of topics and analyzing political, social and economic questions related to a specific country/region or a global contemporary challenge. Every issue follows, and is the result of, a fieldwork undertaken by its author. In this respect, this publication illustrates CERI’s approach to area studies, based on a direct, empirical experience and methodology.
Previous and current issues are all available online, free of charge. As all publications of this website, Les Etudes du CERI is protected by copyright through the French law.

 

Series editor: Alain Dieckhoff, directeur du CERI

Editor of the journal: Judith Burko, judith.burko@sciencespo.fr, phone +33158717004

Media contact: Karolina Michel, karolina.michel@sciencespo.fr, phone+33158717007

Jean-Pierre Pagé

Tableau de bord des pays d'Europe centrale et orientale 2005 (volume 2)
N°121
December 2005
Comment citer ce volume :

Jean-Pierre Pagé

, Tableau de bord des pays d'Europe centrale et orientale 2005 (volume 2) / Les Études du CERI, N°121, December 2005, [en ligne, www.sciencespo.fr/ceri/fr/papier/etude].

Jean-Pierre Pagé

Tableau de bord des pays d'Europe centrale et orientale 2005 (volume 1)
N°120
December 2005
Comment citer ce volume :

Jean-Pierre Pagé

, Tableau de bord des pays d'Europe centrale et orientale 2005 (volume 1) / Les Études du CERI, N°120, December 2005, [en ligne, www.sciencespo.fr/ceri/fr/papier/etude].

Marwa Daoudy

Le long chemin de Damas. La Syrie et les négociations de paix avec Israel
N°119
November 2005
Conflict resolution, Energy / Natural resources, International security, Israel, Middle East, Peace / Peacekeeping, Syria, Territory, Les études du CERI

From 1991 to 2000, Syria and Israel, two of the key actors of the Middle-Eastern conflict, entered into extensive peace negotiations. What lessons can be drawn from the process in terms of Syria’s objectives, motivations and perceptions, considering that this actor remains largely unknown? Such concerns will be addressed by identifying the major issues at stake: territory, security, and water resources. By analyzing all the obstacles on the road to peace, we will evaluate the potential for a resumption of peace talks in the new regional context. The death of President Hafez al-Asad in June 2000 and the rise to power of his son Bashar, the deterioration of the Israeli-Palestinian situation since the start of the Intifada and Ariel Sharon’s election in Israel, the war launched by the United States in Iraq, the assassination of Lebanon’s former Prime Minister Rafic Hariri, the withdrawal of Syrian troops from Lebanon in April 2005, and the meeting of the 10th Baath Party Congress in June have all drastically impacted on domestic and regional dynamics. The purpose of the study is to shed new light on Syria’s constraints and opportunities, and their impact on her bargaining position.

Comment citer ce volume :

Marwa Daoudy

, Le long chemin de Damas. La Syrie et les négociations de paix avec Israel / Les Études du CERI, N°119, November 2005, [en ligne, www.sciencespo.fr/ceri/fr/papier/etude].

Shahrbanou Tadjbakhsh

Human Security: Concepts and Implications with an Application to Post-Intervention Challenges in Afghanistan
N°117
-118
September 2005
Afghanistan, Human rights, International organizations, Middle East, NGOs / Civil society, Peace / Peacekeeping, Politics / Political Systems, Security policy, Violence, Les études du CERI

Is the concept of “human security”, which has been discussed and debated in international organizations and academic circles since 1994, simply “hot air”, as its critics claim? Or does it provide a suitable framework for proposing multisectoral, integrated solutions in a world that is increasingly interconnected? While there is no consensus as to the exact definition of the term, human security goes beyond traditional notions of security to focus on such issues as development and respect for human rights. To some the concept is attractive, but analytically weak since it introduces too many variables that are not necessarily linked together. To others, human security concerns should be limited to situations marked by the threat or outbreak of violence. For those who favour a broad definition (as does this author), the human security agenda provides the means to assess the root causes of conflict (whether intra-state or inter-state), to propose adequate policies for resolving crises, and to provide the means for sustainable peace-building. In so doing human security policies focus on social and economic issues as they affect the individual, arguing that security (in the narrow sense of the term) is dependent on a wide-ranging network of factors that require a comprehensive approach to be effective. The paper introduces the various documents on the subject produced by international organizations, takes up the problem of the relation between academic research and policy-making, and points to a certain number of cases in which nations or regional organizations have included human security as a foreign policy option. Throughout the paper reference is made to the case of Afghanistan that is treated in the study reproduced in annex.

Comment citer ce volume :

Shahrbanou Tadjbakhsh

, Human Security: Concepts and Implications with an Application to Post-Intervention Challenges in Afghanistan / Les Études du CERI, N°117-118, September 2005, [en ligne, www.sciencespo.fr/ceri/fr/papier/etude].

Odette Tomescu-Hatto

Comment conjuguer l'élargissement de l'Union européenne et la sécurité de ses frontières ? Le chapitre roumano-moldave
N°116
September 2005
Borders, Central and Eastern Europe, Conflict resolution, European Union, Europeanization, International organizations, Moldova, Regional integration, Romania, Russian Federation, Security policy, Les études du CERI

The enlargement of the EU to the Central and Eastern European countries raises interrogations concerning the new borders traced by Brussels between the Member States and their future neighbors. What is the impact of the EU enlargement on the Romanian-Moldovan relations and how might the cooperation between the two countries affect the security of the Eastern border of the EU? The analysis on the one hand of the impact of Romania’s preparations for EU membership on its relations with Moldova and the evaluation on the other hand of the limits and success of the European Neighborhood Policy towards Moldova, show that one of the main challenges for the EU will be to reconcile at the same time security and integration.

Comment citer ce volume :

Odette Tomescu-Hatto

, Comment conjuguer l'élargissement de l'Union européenne et la sécurité de ses frontières ? Le chapitre roumano-moldave / Les Études du CERI, N°116, September 2005, [en ligne, www.sciencespo.fr/ceri/fr/papier/etude].

Nicolas Revise

Le système Thaksin : coup de frein au processus de démocratisation ou « voie thaïlandaise » vers la démocratie ?
N°115
June 2005
Collective mobilizations, Democratization, NGOs / Civil society, Politics / Political Systems, Southeast Asia, Thailand, Les études du CERI

Thaksin Shinawatra, Thailand’s Prime Minister, is a man of superlatives: the billionaire telecommunications tycoon is the only elected Thai head of government to have managed to get through an entire legislative term before being triumphantly reelected to a second mandate. His party, Thai Rak Thai (“Thais Love Thais”), rules with an overwhelming majority. Having rose to power in the wake of the 1997 Asian crisis and the promulgation of Thailand’s democratic Constitution the same year, Thaksin exemplifies the country’s recent history: he is heir to the authoritarian military regimes of the 1960-1970 and the product of a political and economic liberalization that brought businessmen transformed into professional politicians to power. But whether the “Thaksin system” – a blend of authoritarianism and liberalism – has put the brakes on twenty-five years of political democratization or if he embodies a “Thai way” to democracy, the Prime Minister cannot rule to please himself: he is faced with a dynamic, complex and organized civil society that has already proven in at least three different instances its striking talent for political mobilization.

Comment citer ce volume :

Nicolas Revise

, Le système Thaksin : coup de frein au processus de démocratisation ou « voie thaïlandaise » vers la démocratie ? / Les Études du CERI, N°115, June 2005, [en ligne, www.sciencespo.fr/ceri/fr/papier/etude].

Renaud Egreteau

Birmanie : l’armée referme le jeu politique
N°114
March 2005
Burma, Collective mobilizations, Democratization, Identities, Politics / Political Systems, Southeast Asia, State, Transnational actors, Violence, Les études du CERI

The Burmese junta that came to power in 1962, and reaffirmed its domination by a second military coup d’état in September of 1988, has steadily increased its control over the nation’s institutions and over the running of the country (renamed Myanmar in 1989). In August of 2003, the decision taken by General Khin Nyunt, Prime Minister and head of military intelligence, to propose “a road map to democracy” suggested that a gradual “transition to democracy”, closely supervised by the military regime, was possible. But the ousting of Khin Nuyunt in October 2004 spelled the return of the regime’s hardliners and of the last of the army’s nationalist chiefs, adamantly opposed to any negotiations with the democratic civilian opposition led by Aung San Suu, held under house arrest since May 2003. Thus the regime, strengthened by a favorable strategic environment, has a good chance of remaining in power by setting its own rules for “democratic” procedures, its aim being to keep the country stable rather pursuing a process of liberalization. Such a policy will inevitably be detrimental to the interests of the opposition and the ethnic minorities.

Comment citer ce volume :

Renaud Egreteau

, Birmanie : l’armée referme le jeu politique / Les Études du CERI, N°114, March 2005, [en ligne, www.sciencespo.fr/ceri/fr/papier/etude].

Philippe Létrillart

L'Eglise catholique et la « société civile » à Cuba
N°113
March 2005
Collective mobilizations, Cuba, Democratization, Justice, Latin America and the Caribbean, NGOs / Civil society, Politics / Political Systems, Les études du CERI

Alongside the socialist society that Cuba is in the process of constructing, an unofficial “civil society” is actually taking shape, made up for the most part of dissident movements. The Cuban Catholic Church, the only non-Castrist institution in existence, is playing a crucial role in maintaining a certain balance between the two; the Church’s dual nature – universal in scope but locally implanted – has fostered a unique conception of its relation to Cuban society, all the more so as its ambition is above all to win back a position of influence and reaffirm its central status. This ambition is furthered by two means, both of which are basically handled by secular representatives, in particular by groups associated with Dagoberto Valdès. On one hand there is a pragmatic approach based on social work and the activities of training centers; on the other an effort to rethink the role of the Church in relation to society and envisage the possibility of a new form of citizenship founded on Catholic values. The charitable initiatives are acceptable to the regime; but the same does not hold as far as the resolve to become active social participants is concerned, a move seen as a form of defense of conservative, backward-looking options. In addition relations between the Church and dissident movements are strained. This ambiguous situation might well render the role of Catholics in the post-Castrist transition more uncertain, even though the Church’s expertise will be required for national reconciliation to take place.

Comment citer ce volume :

Philippe Létrillart

, L'Eglise catholique et la « société civile » à Cuba / Les Études du CERI, N°113, March 2005, [en ligne, www.sciencespo.fr/ceri/fr/papier/etude].

Jean-Pierre Pagé

Tableau de bord des pays d'Europe centrale et orientale 2004 (volume 2)
N°112
December 2004
Comment citer ce volume :

Jean-Pierre Pagé

, Tableau de bord des pays d'Europe centrale et orientale 2004 (volume 2) / Les Études du CERI, N°112, December 2004, [en ligne, www.sciencespo.fr/ceri/fr/papier/etude].

Jean-Pierre Pagé

Tableau de bord des pays d'Europe centrale et orientale 2004 (volume 1)
N°111
December 2004
Comment citer ce volume :

Jean-Pierre Pagé

, Tableau de bord des pays d'Europe centrale et orientale 2004 (volume 1) / Les Études du CERI, N°111, December 2004, [en ligne, www.sciencespo.fr/ceri/fr/papier/etude].

Rémi Castets

Opposition politique, nationalisme et islam chez les Ouïghours du Xinjiang
N°110
October 2004
Caucasus / Central Asia, China, Collective mobilizations, Colonization/Decolonization, Diasporas, Identities, Law, Nationalism, North-East Asia, Politics / Political Systems, Religions, Violence, Les études du CERI

With a substantial Uyghur population, Xinjiang (East Turkistan) is, after Uzbekistan, the second largest Muslim Turkic-speaking area of settlement area in Central Asia. Annexed by China fairly late, this territory has a tumultuous history punctuated by foreign interference and separatist insurrections. Through strict control of the regional political system and a massive influx of Han settlers, the communist regime has managed to integrate this strategic region and its large oil deposits into the rest of China. However, over the past twenty years, unrest in Xinjiang has dramatically intensified. Less familiar to Western countries than the problem of Tibet, the Uyghur question is nevertheless a deeper source of concern for the Chinese authorities. After a long media blackout about this unrest until September 11, 2001, the Chinese government issued a series of documents attempting to depict the Uyghur opposition as an outside terrorist force linked to transnational Islamist terrorist networks. This rhetoric, which portrays the current unrest as a foreign attempt to destabilize the region, conceals a deep socio-political malaise and an opposition that actually takes on a far different shape from the vision official discourse tries to impose.

Comment citer ce volume :

Rémi Castets

, Opposition politique, nationalisme et islam chez les Ouïghours du Xinjiang / Les Études du CERI, N°110, October 2004, [en ligne, www.sciencespo.fr/ceri/fr/papier/etude].

Alexandra Goujon

Les nouveaux voisins de l'Union européenne. Stratégies identitaires et politiques en Ukraine, Biélorussie et Moldavie
N°109
September 2004
Belarus, Central and Eastern Europe, European Union, Europeanization, Identities, Moldova, Politics / Political Systems, Regional integration, Ukraine, Les études du CERI

Since May 1, 2004, the Ukraine and Belarus have become the European Union’s new neighbours. Moldova is bound to follow suit with Romania’s entrance, scheduled for 2007. Enlargement of the EU to the East has sparked debates on what relations the EU should have with its new border states that are not slated for membership in the near future. The discussion has led to the design of a European Neighbourhood Policy (ENP) that blends a regional approach based on shared values with a process of differentiation taking into account the specific characteristics of each country involved. Since their independence, the Ukraine, Belarus and Moldova have developed different identity-based strategies that the new ENP hopes to address while avoiding the creation of new divisions. These strategies in fact oppose those who wish to incorporate European values into their country’s political model and those who, on the contrary, reject these values. The relationship between identity and politics is all the more crucial for the EU’s eastern neighbours since it involves practices with a low level of institutionalization, in the areas of nation-building, the political system as well as foreign policy. A comparative approach confirms the idea that the EU’s new neighbours constitute a regional specificity due to their common past as Soviet republics and their geostrategic position. It also points up the differences between these states as they gradually transform into discrete political spaces with nationalized modes of identification and politicization.

Comment citer ce volume :

Alexandra Goujon

, Les nouveaux voisins de l'Union européenne. Stratégies identitaires et politiques en Ukraine, Biélorussie et Moldavie / Les Études du CERI, N°109, September 2004, [en ligne, www.sciencespo.fr/ceri/fr/papier/etude].
Le Soudan d’un conflit à l’autre
N°107
-108
September 2004
Conflict resolution, East Africa and The Horn, International humanitarian law, International organizations, International security, State, Sudan, Terrorism, Wars / Conflicts, Les études du CERI

The peace agreements that were signed in May 2004 may imply the end of the war in South Sudan. In order to assess the likelihood of success, one has to discuss the changes after the Islamists were brought to power in 1989 by a military coup. Of special interest are the impacts of their internal divisions, the emergence of oil money as significant revenues for the State and the consequences of 9/11 in the Middle East. Moreover, difficulties to implement the agreements in South Sudan should not be underplayed. The underdevelopment of this region, the existence of militias still supported by Khartoum and the history of the civil war among Southern Sudanese could give room to bitter divisions and proxy wars involving Khartoum’s government. The current crisis in Darfur reflects the weaknesses of the peace process despite a strong international involvement. Structural issues such as citizenship have not been addressed and this very crisis shows how little the regime intends to reform itself.

Comment citer ce volume : Roland Marchal, Le Soudan d’un conflit à l’autre / Les Études du CERI, N°107-108, September 2004, [en ligne, www.sciencespo.fr/ceri/fr/papier/etude].

Diana Hochraich

L’intégration régionale en Asie depuis l’entrée de la Chine dans l’OMC
N°106
July 2004
China, Economic transactions, International organizations, Markets / Finance, Multinational corporations, North-East Asia, Political economy, Regional integration, Southeast Asia, Trade, Transnational actors, Les études du CERI

Since their economic development got under way, the ASEAN countries – which essentially manufacture labour-intensive products – have been marked by strong regional integration brought about by the segmentation of the production process engaged in by Japanese companies. In these countries, successive relocations resulted in de facto economic integration at a time when various political groupings intent on blocking the development of communism were also emerging. Since joining the WTO, China – the world’s workshop – has become the hub for trade with the developed countries. In the face of such competition, the ASEAN countries will have to show their capacity to maintain their position in the value chain represented by the production of all of the Asian countries. While a number of econometric studies seem to indicate that the ASEAN countries will succeed in this undertaking thanks to the specific nature of their production apparatus, it is important neither to underestimate China’s ability to learn quickly and its determination to move further up the production chain nor to overlook the total absence of industrial policy on the part of governments in these countries which follow the advice of international organisations. It would seem that the ASEAN countries, faced solely with market forces, cannot hope to enhance their limited ability to move up the production chain.

Comment citer ce volume :

Diana Hochraich

, L’intégration régionale en Asie depuis l’entrée de la Chine dans l’OMC / Les Études du CERI, N°106, July 2004, [en ligne, www.sciencespo.fr/ceri/fr/papier/etude].

François d'Arcy

Dix-huit mois après l'accession de Lula au pouvoir, où en est le Brésil ?
N°105
July 2004
Brazil, Democratization, Emerging States, Latin America and the Caribbean, Politics / Political Systems, Poverty, Social policy, Les études du CERI

This study, which examines the chances of success of the government of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, takes as its starting point the idea that the main obstacle resides in the structure of the Brazilian political system. Being unable to reform that system, President Lula has skilfully adapted to it, but not without having to forge certain unusual alliances. He has, nevertheless, honoured the campaign promises which brought him to power after three unsuccessful attempts in a row, maintaining anti-inflationary policies and strict budgetary discipline, and respecting commitments given concerning public debt and privatised companies. This macroeconomic policy – which follows on from that of Fernando Henrique Cardoso – dominated his government’s first year in office, slowing the implementation of new policies addressing social issues and sustainable development. So far, the latter policies would appear to point more to continuity than to radical change, a fact which will, doubtless, contribute greatly to their success.

Comment citer ce volume :

François d'Arcy

, Dix-huit mois après l'accession de Lula au pouvoir, où en est le Brésil ? / Les Études du CERI, N°105, July 2004, [en ligne, www.sciencespo.fr/ceri/fr/papier/etude].