Jean-Pierre Pagé

Tableau de bord des pays d'Europe centrale et orientale 2007 (volume 2)
N°142
December 2007
Comment citer ce volume :

Jean-Pierre Pagé

, Tableau de bord des pays d'Europe centrale et orientale 2007 (volume 2) / Les Études du CERI, N°142, December 2007, [en ligne, www.sciencespo.fr/ceri/fr/papier/etude].

Jean-Pierre Pagé

Tableau de bord des pays d'Europe centrale et orientale 2007 (volume 1)
N°141
December 2007
Comment citer ce volume :

Jean-Pierre Pagé

, Tableau de bord des pays d'Europe centrale et orientale 2007 (volume 1) / Les Études du CERI, N°141, December 2007, [en ligne, www.sciencespo.fr/ceri/fr/papier/etude].

Alexandrine Brami Celentano, Jean-Marc Siroën

Mondialisation et politique fiscale au Brésil
N°140
December 2007
Brazil, Economic transactions, Emerging States, Globalization, Governance, Latin America and the Caribbean, Markets / Finance, Social policy, State, Transnational actors, Les études du CERI

Since the 1970s, the world follows a triple evolution in favor of democratization, opening and decentralization. Brazil has been following this movement with a democratic and decentralizing constitution and by the adoption of market-friendly policies. However, since the Real Plan (1993), Brazil is recentralizing its fiscal policy. The huge increase of public expenses is predominantly at the profit of the Union, which imposes new fiscal constraints to the States and Municipalities. If the international integration is frequently associated to tax limitations and decentralization, Brazil would depart from this general trend. However Brazilian integration is recent and partial. Integration does not seem to increase inequalities what would justify a centralized transfer from the “winning” regions to the “losing” ones. The fiscal recentralization by higher public expenses might be therefore explained by the political will to reduce initial inequalities and to implement a better social protection. We show that fiscal recentralization is also the consequence of a distorted fiscal system notably in the nature of social security taxes and the type of VAT (ICMS) applied by States.

Comment citer ce volume :

Alexandrine Brami Celentano, Jean-Marc Siroën

, Mondialisation et politique fiscale au Brésil / Les Études du CERI, N°140, December 2007, [en ligne, www.sciencespo.fr/ceri/fr/papier/etude].
L’opération Althea en Bosnie-Herzégovine et la gestion européenne du « post-conflit »
N°139
November 2007
Balkans, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Conflict resolution, European Union, International organizations, International security, Peace / Peacekeeping, Les études du CERI

On December 2, 2004, the European Union took over from NATO the main peacekeeping forces that had been deployed in Bosnia-and-Herzegovina since the signature of the Dayton Accords. The launch of EU military operation Althea was presented by its supporters as a major test for the ESDP, especially as it pertained to a wider Europeanization of post-conflict management in Bosnia. Against this background, Althea provides a fruitful locus to assess one of the EU’s most frequent claims - that it possesses a specific know-how when it comes to combining the military and the civilian aspects of post-conflict management. In this study, Althea is primarily approached through the way it is viewed by both its participants and by Bosnians. Several issues are addressed: First, how do historical legacies of the international presence in Bosnia weigh upon the very definition of mission Althea, its implementation and its local receptions? Second, coordination of the various European actors present on the field has emerged as one of the major challenges the EU needs to face. Third, the study draws attention to the possible discrepancy between various understandings (among Althea personnel and Bosnian people) of what a European military mission entails. Last but not least, the study highlights complex rationalities at work when phasing out an operation like Althea. EU exit strategies seem to derive rather from bureaucratic logic than objective assessment of stability in Bosnia.

Comment citer ce volume : Nadège Ragaru, L’opération Althea en Bosnie-Herzégovine et la gestion européenne du « post-conflit » / Les Études du CERI, N°139, November 2007, [en ligne, www.sciencespo.fr/ceri/fr/papier/etude].
Le renouveau islamique en Azerbaïdjan, entre dynamiques internes et influences extérieures
N°138
October 2007
Azerbaijan, Caucasus / Central Asia, Democratization, Nationalism, Political order, Politics / Political Systems, Religions, Violence, Les études du CERI

Post-Soviet Azerbaijan is the theater of an Islamic revival in the public sphere, a direct consequence of exiting from the empire and achieving independence, which involved the rehabilitation of religion, even the integration of Islam in a new national identitarian policy. Azerbaijan stands out from the rest of the former USSR by the fact that it is the most secularized Muslim country due to its early entrance into Russia’s bosom and the fact that it was long the ground for an ideological clash between the Shiite Persian Empires and the Sunni Ottoman Empire. It is through the convergence of internal factors – a preserved Islam despite the anti-religious Soviet policy – and external factors – the influence of neighboring countries, Turkey, Iran and the Arab world – that Azerbaijani Islam has been reconfigured since the end of the communist era. Eager to preserve the country’s secularity – the pride of the elites – and to ensure that the religious revival does not turn into a source of tension between the two essential components of its population (Shiites and Sunnis), the state has – with difficulty and sometimes a lack of subtlety – set up a religious policy that is far from receiving general approval. However, even if its handling of Islam is disputed, the Azerbaijan government controls the religious phenomenon through a policy that alternates between tolerance and repression.

Comment citer ce volume : , Le renouveau islamique en Azerbaïdjan, entre dynamiques internes et influences extérieures / Les Études du CERI, N°138, October 2007, [en ligne, www.sciencespo.fr/ceri/fr/papier/etude].
Côte d’Ivoire : les jeunes « se lèvent en hommes ». Anticolonialisme et ultranationalisme chez les Jeunes patriotes d’Abidjan
N°137
July 2007
Colonization/Decolonization, International organizations, Ivory Coast, Nationalism, Political order, Politics / Political Systems, Security policy, Transnational actors, Violence, Wars / Conflicts, West Africa, Les études du CERI

Since the war began in 2002, an unprecedented social movement has taken hold in the Ivory Coast, the "Patriotic Youth," that rallies around a violent ultranationalist and anti-colonialist discourse. Supported by mass organizations that control the urban areas, the Patriotic Youth have become central political actors and a shock weapon used by the government in power. While acknowledging this political instrumentalization, the Etude goes beyond functionalist interpretations of the Patriotic Youth phenomenon in attempt to grasp the driving sociological forces and assess their scope. Based on unpublished surveys conducted in Abidjan among grassroots activists of the "Patriotic galaxy," it demonstrates that also at stake in this grand nationalist fervor is the emergence of a new political generation, involving FESCI student unionism, which today makes violent claims to rights and social recognition. In this hypothesis, the anti-colonialist register is used as a vocabulary expressing generational revolution and emancipation of a fraction of the youth that has experimented with violence in union struggles and in war. It concludes by examining the influence of this phenomenon with regard to a possible resolution of the crisis. Beyond its institutional dimensions, the Ouagadougou accord paves the way for a change of political generation, the "Fescists" – both patriots and rebels – who have managed to impose themselves on the heirs of Houphouetism.

Comment citer ce volume : Richard Banégas, Côte d’Ivoire : les jeunes « se lèvent en hommes ». Anticolonialisme et ultranationalisme chez les Jeunes patriotes d’Abidjan / Les Études du CERI, N°137, July 2007, [en ligne, www.sciencespo.fr/ceri/fr/papier/etude].

Isabelle Rousseau

A la recherche d’une meilleure gouvernance d’entreprise : Petróleos Mexicanos (Pemex)
N°136
July 2007
Economic transactions, Environment, Globalization, Governance, Latin America and the Caribbean, Markets / Finance, Mexico, Multinational corporations, Privatizations, State, Les études du CERI

Facing a very complex environment with many economical, geopolitical and climate uncertainties and risks, National and International Oil Companies have been looking for a more rationale organizational structure to hold out against competition. This is the problem Pemex – the Mexican National Oil Company - which is third-ranked in world oil production, has been facing with. The reform process is not easy: it implies changes to the Constitution. With the recent democratization of the political regime, none of the major political parties alone is dominant in the Congress and has the capacity to push through such changes. Since the beginning of the nineties, the teams who governed Pemex tried to reply the following questions: Which kind of organizational mechanisms would allow Pemex to conserve its condition as a National Company and, in the same time, to be managed with the private sector principles and criteria? More concretely, is it possible to stimulate a market context inside a state monopoly without modifying the text of the Constitution? How can a new labor culture be created when the very influential Oil Trade Union has been maintaining a corporatist logic of the ancien régime? How to introduce criteria for corporate social responsibility when secrecy has been part of the traditions in the management of the company? What kind of evaluation is it possible to make nowadays about the reforms those managers offered?

Comment citer ce volume :

Isabelle Rousseau

, A la recherche d’une meilleure gouvernance d’entreprise : Petróleos Mexicanos (Pemex) / Les Études du CERI, N°136, July 2007, [en ligne, www.sciencespo.fr/ceri/fr/papier/etude].
Somalie : un nouveau front antiterroriste ?
N°135
June 2007
Conflict resolution, East Africa and The Horn, International organizations, International security, Justice, Political order, Politics / Political Systems, Somalia, Terrorism, Violence, Wars / Conflicts, Les études du CERI

The international community analyzed the crisis in Somalia in light of its own interests rather than the reality of the country. After having failed to work out a true reconciliation government between 2002 and 2004, western countries went about keeping alive a government that had no real legitimacy, but backed by Ethiopia and Kenya. The emergence of the Islamic Courts in June 2006 reshuffled the cards. More than the radicalization of the Islamic Courts, two arguments finally determined Somalia’s fate and the rekindling of war there. Ethiopia couldn’t stand to see an autonomous power friendly to Eritrea appear on its southern flank. And the United States wanted to signal the absolute predominance of its fight against terrorism over any other consideration. Such a posture provided the opportunity to try out a new security doctrine giving the Pentagon ascendancy over the pursuit of alleged terrorists, co-opting new regional powers on the African continent in the process, given that most of its European allies once again proved particularly limp in the face of yet another militarist drift on the part of Washington. Incapable of occupying the political space, the transitional Somalian government encouraged radicalization. The specter of an Iraq-style conflict in Africa began to loom with Ethiopia’s shaky victory in January 2007.

Comment citer ce volume : Roland Marchal, Somalie : un nouveau front antiterroriste ? / Les Études du CERI, N°135, June 2007, [en ligne, www.sciencespo.fr/ceri/fr/papier/etude].

Ioulia Shukan

Ukraine : les principaux enjeux de la vie politique depuis la Révolution orange
N°134
April 2007
Central and Eastern Europe, Political economy, Political order, Politics / Political Systems, Privatizations, State, Ukraine, Les études du CERI

Since the Orange Revolution in autumn 2004 which brought the formal political opposition to power behind the candidacy of Viktor Yushchenko, Ukraine has been undergoing another transition phase. Change is certainly perceptible on several levels, but the economic and political legacy left by the authoritarian regime of Leonid Kuchma continues to weigh on politics in the country. By adopting a combined approach involving a sociology of the actors and an institutional analysis we assess these changes with respect two key issues: the delinking of political power and economic interests and the constitutional reform. The attitude of the Orange governing team with regard to oligarchic power has changed considerably, moving from the threat of expropriation by re-privatization to the acknowledgment of their importance in the national economy. In reviewing the terms of the constitutional reform, it becomes clear that although such reform was made possible by an unprecedented sharing of political power at the highest state level, between a President and a Prime Minister of opposite political bents, it has nevertheless encountered considerable obstacles to its implementation, due to conflicting interpretations and disagreement between the heads of state and government as to the redefinition of their respective roles. These transformations result in a recurrent modification of the rules of the political game and are likely to jeopardize the progress made on the path to democratization.

Comment citer ce volume :

Ioulia Shukan

, Ukraine : les principaux enjeux de la vie politique depuis la Révolution orange / Les Études du CERI, N°134, April 2007, [en ligne, www.sciencespo.fr/ceri/fr/papier/etude].
La présence chinoise au Cambodge. Contribution à une économie politique violente, rentière et inégalitaire
N°133
February 2007
Cambodia, Diasporas, Economic transactions, Emerging States, Governance, Markets / Finance, Power, Southeast Asia, Transnational actors, Les études du CERI

Chinese aid and investment in Cambodia have been soaring for the last ten years thus indicating the rising influence of the People’s Republic of China, especially in countries where the Chinese community is strong. Chinese aid, free of any democratic rhetoric, allows the governments benefiting from it to ignore the requirements generally imposed by lending institutions. As a matter of fact, Cambodia is highly dependent on public aid for development. An analysis in terms of historical contingencies reflects a conjunction of two processes of putting a grip on the economy, both in China and Cambodia. Chinese aid and investment thereby help to consolidate a political economy based on arbitrariness, increased inequalities and violence, as well as the overlapping of positions of power and accumulation. In this regard, the analysis must take into account foreign aid not only because it competes with Chinese aid, but also since the Paris Accords it has participated – indirectly – in reinforcing Prime Minister Hun Sen’s power.

Comment citer ce volume : Françoise Mengin, La présence chinoise au Cambodge. Contribution à une économie politique violente, rentière et inégalitaire / Les Études du CERI, N°133, February 2007, [en ligne, www.sciencespo.fr/ceri/fr/papier/etude].

Jean-Pierre Pagé

Tableau de bord des pays d'Europe centrale et orientale 2006 (volume 2)
N°132
December 2006
Comment citer ce volume :

Jean-Pierre Pagé

, Tableau de bord des pays d'Europe centrale et orientale 2006 (volume 2) / Les Études du CERI, N°132, December 2006, [en ligne, www.sciencespo.fr/ceri/fr/papier/etude].

Jean-Pierre Pagé

Tableau de bord des pays d'Europe centrale et orientale 2006 (volume 1)
N°131
December 2006
Comment citer ce volume :

Jean-Pierre Pagé

, Tableau de bord des pays d'Europe centrale et orientale 2006 (volume 1) / Les Études du CERI, N°131, December 2006, [en ligne, www.sciencespo.fr/ceri/fr/papier/etude].
Norvège : avantages et aléas de la cohésion sociale
N°130
November 2006
Energy / Natural resources, Globalization, Migrations, NGOs / Civil society, Norway, Political economy, Politics / Political Systems, Social policy, Western Europe, Les études du CERI

Social cohesion stands out as a major element of the “Norwegian model”. Norway can even be seen as a sort of laboratory where one can measure both the positive and the negative effects of such a priority and examine its components. The Norwegian social-democratic model – i.e. economical and social policies aiming at reinforcing social cohesion – is largely a product of the remarkable ethnic and cultural homogeneity that has historically characterized Norway. Though this political strategy has generated considerable achievements, it would appear to be in jeopardy today. This study will examine three main questions: considering international movements of people, is it possible to maintain ethnic and cultural homogeneity in a country with an open market? As Norway faces growing international competition, is there not a risk that the adverse effects of social homogeneity will supersede its advantages? Lastly, will oil revenues be enough to finance the continuation of this Norwegian model despite perturbations associated with globalization?

Comment citer ce volume : André Grjebine, Norvège : avantages et aléas de la cohésion sociale / Les Études du CERI, N°130, November 2006, [en ligne, www.sciencespo.fr/ceri/fr/papier/etude].

Stéphanie Balme, Jean-Luc Domenach, Jean-Louis Rocca, Yuxin Jiang, Martine Le Boulaire, Denis Segrestin

Entreprendre en Chine : contexte politique, management, réalités sociales
N°128
-129
September 2006
Comment citer ce volume :

Stéphanie Balme, Jean-Luc Domenach, Jean-Louis Rocca, Yuxin Jiang, Martine Le Boulaire, Denis Segrestin

, Entreprendre en Chine : contexte politique, management, réalités sociales / Les Études du CERI, N°128-129, September 2006, [en ligne, www.sciencespo.fr/ceri/fr/papier/etude].

François Vergniolle de Chantal

Bush et la fin de l'ordre électoral du New Deal. La domination républicaine est-elle pérenne ?
N°127
September 2006
Nationalism, North America, Politics / Political Systems, State, United States, Les études du CERI

The Republican Party’s identity as fashioned since 1964 is poles apart from the moderate conservatism that had characterised the party until then. The party ideology has become populist, religious and nationalistic. It results from Barry M. Goldwater and later Richard Nixon’s "southern" electoral strategy. The party cashed in on the discontent sown among the southern population by racial integration, and has consequently made the former Confederate States its stronghold. This shift has been so large in scope that it constitutes the main feature of US politics in the past four decades. Political initiative has since then been primarily rightwing, weakening the Democrats. When the GOP won a majority in the South, the Democratic coalition suffered a trauma it has yet to recover from. The nationalist reaction to the 9/11 attacks gave the Republicans a supplementary political base. Nevertheless, this comeback does not have sufficiently stable elements allowing for a lasting Republican coalition. The Republicans’ strength resides in the fervour that surrounds them, as well as, as we will argue, in the Democrats’ inability to define a tactic to face the Republican challenge. Yet, the balance of (electoral) power does not tip to the Republicans. Although demographical and geographical factors favour the right, social evolutions tend to favour the Democrats. The latter may lack strategy, but they do not lack resource. The situation is exactly the opposite for the Republicans.

Comment citer ce volume :

François Vergniolle de Chantal

, Bush et la fin de l'ordre électoral du New Deal. La domination républicaine est-elle pérenne ? / Les Études du CERI, N°127, September 2006, [en ligne, www.sciencespo.fr/ceri/fr/papier/etude].